Sunday, 30 April 2023

Crude Oil Slip on Soft Data Ahead of Fed and ECB Decisions. Where to for WTI?

The crude oil price gave up some of Friday’s gain to start the week after Chinese PMI data missed forecasts and several markets are closed for holidays. Will crude resume the recovery?

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Gold Price Trapped Ahead of a Busy Week as US Dollar Pauses. Where to for XAU/USD?

The gold price slipped at the open on Monday as traders prepare for the Fed’s interest rate decision and the potential for impact across the yield curve and on the US Dollar.

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Markets Week Ahead: Fed, ECB, RBA, S&P 500, Gold, US Dollar

Global equity markets ended mostly higher in the past week, led by the US, following better-than-expected earnings from big technology companies. Key focus in the coming week is on the Fed, ECB and RBA rate decisions, global manufacturing and services PMI data and earnings of around 160 companies in the S&P 500 index.

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US Dollar’s Direction Hinges on Fed’s Policy Outlook, US Labor Market Data

The Fed's policy decision at its May meeting and the April nonfarm payrolls report will steal the spotlight next week and will be key in determining the direction of the U.S. dollar going forward.

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Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: OPEC+ Production Gains Wiped Out Ahead of Pivotal Week for Oil Prices

Oil fluctuated between losses and gains this past week as recession fears continue to weigh on prices. Will huge swathes of data this week be pivotal in providing Oil with a medium-term direction?

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Saturday, 29 April 2023

British Pound Week Ahead: GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Will Dance to Different Music

The latest Fed and ECB monetary policy decisions next week will steer GBP/USD and EUR/GBP in the short-term.

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Friday, 28 April 2023

S&P 500, Nasdaq Weekly Forecast: Climbing the Wall of Worry

Earnings from the big technology companies may have boosted US equity indices but the bar for further gains is rising ahead of the US FOMC meeting next week. That said, the trend remains up and so far, there are no signs of a reversal of the uptrend on technical charts.

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Gold Wavers Ahead of Big Data Week, Fed and Jobs Report Eyed for Market Cues

Gold prices were subdued on Friday, but market moves were limited, with many traders sitting on the sidelines and avoiding taking large directional positions ahead of major events next week

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US Core and Headline Inflation Diverge, Employment Costs Rise, US Dollar Nudges Higher.

Core inflationary pressures in the US remain elevated, while headline inflation continues to fall. While the latter will please the Fed, it may not be enough to stop US rates being hiked again next week.

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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Dovish BoJ Inspires USD/JPY Rally, 200-Day MA in Sight

USD/JPY is facing some technical challenges following a 250-odd pip rally. Time for a retracement or bullish continuation?

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EU Breaking News: German Economy Stagnates, EU GDP Grows Marginally

The German economy failed to grow in the first quarter of 2023 but also narrowly avoided a contraction, Euro Area registered a minor gain. Euro and DAX head lower

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: New 2023 Low for Aussie dollar?

AUD/USD is on the backfoot this morning after housing credit remained subdued. The Aussie dollar now looks ahead to US core PCE and consumer sentiment for guidance.

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Thursday, 27 April 2023

Amazon Soars on Upbeat Earnings, S&P 500 Futures Add to Gains as Big Tech Delivers

Amazon’s financial results beat expectations, with both EPS and revenue clocking in above estimates. Shares of the e-commerce company soar after the earnings announcement.

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Nasdaq 100 Blasts Higher as Meta’s Earnings Boost Tech, Apple in Focus Next Week

The Nasdaq 100 rallies on Thursday as solid earnings from Meta Platforms boost sentiment on Wall Street, lifting tech stocks. Apple’s quarterly results will steal the limelight next week.

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GBP/USD Price Outlook: Cable Struggling for Bullish Continuation

GBP/USD edged towards the recent peak but bullish momentum appears to be waning ahead of a period of high importance US data including PCE data and the FOMC meeting

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US Q1 Growth (GDP) Disappoints, US Dollar Nudges Higher Post-Release

The US economy expanded by much less than expected in Q1 2023 while prices continue to rise, leaving the Fed with plenty to think about ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

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Japanese Yen Price Action Setups: AUD/JPY, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY

The re-emergence of US banking concerns and plenty of high impact data including US GDP, Fed and ECB rates meetings, warrants a closer look at the safe-haven currency

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Euro Latest: EUR/USD Stuck in a Holding Pattern Ahead of High Impact Data Releases

EUR/USD volatility is likely to return shortly with a slew of high importance US and Euro Area data set for release over the next 36 hours.

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Wednesday, 26 April 2023

Crude Oil Sinks as Sentiment Waivers in the Face of Supportive Data. Lower WTI?

Crude oil prices have pulled back to levels seen prior to OPEC+ lowering its output target and underlying market structures might be less supportive going forward. Where to for WTI?

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S&P 500 Subdued Despite Microsoft’s Bullish Explosion, US First-Quarter GDP Eyed

The S&P 500 fell on Wednesday, undermined by cautious market sentiment, with most sectors ending the day in negative territory but tech commanding strength thanks to Microsoft’s solid rally.

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USD/CAD Wavers at Fibonacci Resistance as USD/JPY Makes Move on Trendline Support

USD/CAD stalls and wavers at technical resistance following its strong performance in recent days. Meanwhile, USD/JPY makes a move on trendline support, with sellers positioning for a breakdown.

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Copper Issues Worrying Signal to Markets on Softer Chinese Demand

Often viewed as a leading indicator of global economic health, copper prices remain susceptible to further downside despite bulls appearing to halt further declines

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Gold and Silver Bid Higher, Government Bond Yields Fall on Recession Fears

Gold and silver continue their recent push higher, aided by lower US Treasury bond yields and ongoing fears about the health of the US banking sector.

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GBP/USD Technical Forecast: 1.2350 Support Key for Bullish Continuation

Cable found support just below the 1.2400 handle before rallying higher this morning as overall risk sentiment improved. Fresh YTD highs still a possibility?

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Tuesday, 25 April 2023

Microsoft and Alphabet Deliver Strong Results, S&P 500 Futures Buoyed by Tech Earnings

Microsoft and Alphabet announced quarterly results today after the market close, with both tech companies beating EPS and revenue expectations by a decent margin.

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Japanese Yen Price Action Setups: EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY

Comments from BoJ Governor confirms no change to yield curve control and easy monetary policy stance. Interesting price action setups developing on Yen pairs

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Consumer Confidence Sinks as Recession Headwinds Grow, USD Gains on Risk-off Mood

U.S. Consumer confidence worsened more than expected in April, suggesting that Americans are beginning to take a more pessimistic view of the economy amid growing recession risks.

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Shift in Risk Sentiment Hits Aussie Dollar (AUD/JPY)

News of First Republic Bank’s $100 billion deposit outflows and anticipation of major US tech earnings appears to have dampened risk appetite. AUD/JPY lower

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Gold Price Forecast: Another Rejection of the $2000 Level, A Sign of Exhaustion?

Spot Gold fails at the $2000 hurdle as bulls seem exhausted. Will US earnings and PCE data drive sentiment reignite the precious metal ahead of FOMC?

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British Pound Latest – GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Price Outlooks

The British Pound is pushing higher against the US dollar but is struggling against a strengthening Euro.

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Monday, 24 April 2023

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Eyes Fib Resistance as Bulls Regain Upper Hand

USD/CAD’s technical signals have turned more positive after the pair recaptured its 200-day simple moving average and overtook a key rising trendline in play since June of last year.

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Gold Gains as Yields Sink, Nasdaq 100 Forges Double Top ahead of Key Tech Earnings

Gold prices rise Monday amid falling U.S. Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 trades lower ahead of key corporate earnings, with the tech index carving out a bearish double-top pattern.

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Oil Selloff Finds Support as the Reality of a Tighter Oil Market Takes Hold

Oil’s sudden selloff appears to be finding support before bridging the gap left by OPEC after its surprise announcement of further supply cuts. WTI and Brent consolidate

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Acceptance Above the 1.1000 Handle Remains Crucial

EURUSD continues to display indecisiveness as German Ifo data comes in mixed. As consolidation continues can US data and ECB policymakers’ rhetoric inspire a breakout?

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US Dollar (DXY) Little Changed Ahead of Weighty Economic Data

The US dollar remains stuck in a tight range, but this is expected to change during the week as heavyweight US data hits the screens.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Steady Pound Faces Big Data Week

GBP/USD patiently awaits upcoming US economic data this week after markets ramped up their bets on BoE rate hikes this year.

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Sunday, 23 April 2023

Markets Week Ahead: Gold, Nasdaq, US Dollar; Earnings, US PCE, Euro Area and US GDP

The US dollar rose slightly while global equity markets ended largely flat in the past week as a positive start to the earnings season has been overshadowed by concerns that central banks may not be done with tightening just yet. Key focus on a raft of earnings in the coming week. Plus, US and Euro area Q1 GDP, US core PCE index, Australia Q1 inflation, and the Bank of Japan interest rate decision.

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S&P 500 Week Ahead Forecast: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN and META Earnings to Guide Markets

The near-term outlook for the S&P 500 hinges on quarterly earnings and guidance from megacap tech. Key companies expected to announce results next week are Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon & Meta

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Saturday, 22 April 2023

British Pound Weekly Outlook: Is GBP/USD Ready to Break Higher?

The British pound’s rally against the US dollar has stalled recently, and chances are that the consolidation could continue a while longer before it embarks on a new leg higher. What are the key levels to watch?

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Euro Week Ahead: Will Heavyweight Data Breathe Life Back Into a Lethargic EUR/USD?

EUR/USD volatility is at a two-month low with the pair stuck in a 90 pip range this week. Next week’s data releases look set to challenge this range.

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Friday, 21 April 2023

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Ominous Signs for Aussie Dollar

AUD/USD looks to a US dominated week while technical analysis favors more pain for the Aussie dollar.

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Sterling Price Outlook: Signs of Bullish Impetus Reverse Ahead of a Busy Week

Sterling showed some signs of promise earlier this week on the back of another stubbornly hot inflation number which dragged rate expectations higher. Momentum Fades

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EUR/USD Remains Listless Despite Improving Euro Area Business Activity

The latest Euro Area PMIs show business activity in the single block at an 11-month high, driven by an increasingly robust service sector.

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USD Price Forecast: Dollar Index (DXY) Bid on Fed Speak

The U.S. dollar looks towards additional Fed speak and US PMI data in what is a relatively lackluster economic trading day. DXY pushing 102.

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Thursday, 20 April 2023

Canadian Dollar Falls With Crude Oil Prices, Will USD/CAD Break Higher Next?

The Canadian Dollar continues to weaken alongside crude oil prices. USD/CAD is facing a key moving average, will it be able to, or will prices break higher?

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Gold Prices Fly as Treasury Yields Dive, S&P 500 at Risk of Breaking Down

Gold prices resume their advance, supported by falling US Treasury rates. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fails to extinguish bearish pressure despite the move in bond markets, a sign bulls may be bailing.

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Euro Forecast - EUR/USD Rebounds as Trendline Support Holds Bears at Bay. What Now?

EUR/USD gains after a subdued performance on Wednesday, as prices encounter support at a key technical trendline, setting the stage for a modest rebound in the FX space.

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South African Rand Forecast: ZAR Bid on Sticky Inflation and Weaker USD

USD/ZAR has pushed off the 50-day moving average today as a weaker USD takes hold ahead of key US releases later today.

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EUR/USD Unchanged After ECB Minutes, Heavy Data Calendar Next Week

The single currency is barely changed after the release of the latest ECB minutes showed that a majority of members agreed with a 50bp rate hike, although others preferred to keep rates unchanged.

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Oil Price Forecast: WTI Enters Fourth Straight Day of Declines on Demand Concerns

A combination of relative dollar strength and tightening financial and credit conditions currently weigh on oil prices as global demand is brought into question

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XAU/USD Forecast: Fed Beige Book Provides Support for Gold Prices

Gold prices look to push back above the $2000 mark but could be hampered by Fed speakers later today.

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Wednesday, 19 April 2023

GBP/USD Capped by Cluster Resistance, USD/JPY Blasts Off after Bullish Breakout

GBP/USD rises, but bullish momentum wanes as prices approach cluster resistance. Meanwhile, USD/JPY extends its advance after clearing a key trendline late last week.

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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Bullish Continuation Remains Constructive

The broader dollar downtrend combined with lower interest rate expectations continue to buoy non-interest-bearing commodities like silver

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FTSE, S&P 500 Latest: Inflation Concerns Weigh on Risk Appetite

UK CPI has led markets to anticipate a further 75 basis points of hikes to year end - weighing on the FTSE. Prominent Fed hawks have their say as S&P 500 finds resistance

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Gold (XAU/USD) Price Under Yield Pressure, Support Level Nears

The precious metal is testing near-term support as short-dated US Treasury yields press higher.

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Breaking News: UK Inflation Holds Above 10% for the 7th Consecutive Month

GBP/USD remained quietly cautious after elevated inflation data ‘hawkishly’ re-priced the BoE’s interest rate path.

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Tuesday, 18 April 2023

Gold Prices Gain as US Dollar Falls, Keep a Close Eye on Bearish Engulfing Follow-Through

Gold prices gained on Tuesday as the US Dollar fell. XAU/USD remains vulnerable to follow-through after a Bearish Engulfing emerged. How have retail traders changed their exposure?

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EUR/USD Bounces Off Confluence Support as Bulls Reemerge to Assert Market Control

EUR/USD pivots higher after two consecutive days of declines, with bulls swooping in to defend technical support and to spark a rebound off the psychological 1.0900 level.

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Gold Prices Gain as US Dollar Resumes Drop, XAU/USD Bounces off Channel Support

Gold regains ground after a subdued performance on Monday, with prices rebounding off channel support near the psychological $2000 level.

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Nasdaq 100 Update: US Stocks Gear up for Tech Earnings: Netflix, Tesla

Netflix and Tesla get the megacap tech stocks underway in the first earnings season of 2023. The Nasdaq has led other US indices as rate expectations and inflation ease

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EUR/USD Nudges Higher, German ZEW Misses as Economic Sentiment Wanes

The single currency is pushing higher against the greenback on US dollar weakness and eyes a re-test of 1.1000 in the near future.

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GBP Price Forecast: Things Get Tough for the BoE as UK Labor Data Surprises

GBP/USD is bid this morning after UK labor data showed faster wage growth that brought into consideration another rate hike from the BoE in May.

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Monday, 17 April 2023

China GDP Beats Expectations; Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite Index To Extend Gains?

China/Hong Kong equities could be gearing up for another leg higher as the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy picks up steam. What could be potential upside in the indices and what are the levels to watch?

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Gold Prices Slip as US Dollar Regains Vigor, Oil Repelled by Cluster Resistance

Gold prices retreat on Monday, undermined by broad-based U.S. dollar strength and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Meanwhile, oil turns lower after failing to clear cluster resistance at $82.60/$83.40.

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USD/JPY Breaks Major Trendline Resistance as USD/CAD Defies Key Moving Average

USD/JPY breaks above trendline resistance and reaches its best level since March 15. Meanwhile, USD/CAD rises for the second consecutive day, challenging its 200-day simple moving average.

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USD (DXY) Update: Manufacturing Data Lifts Downtrodden Dollar

The US dollar has received a boost from an unlikely manufacturing print that adds weight behind the developing pullback

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie Dollar Sets Eyes on RBA Minutes

AUD/USD trades around the key 0.67 support level as focus shifts to the RBA meeting minutes and Chinese GDP tomorrow.

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EUR/USD Back Below 1.1000 as the US Dollar Picks up an Early Bid

US Treasury yields open the session near a two week high, giving the greenback an early boost. EUR/USD is back below 1.1000 but for how long?

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Reacts to Real Yield Sensitivity

Gold prices are bid as real yields are suppressed pushing XAU/USD above the $2000 handle in early European trade.

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Sunday, 16 April 2023

Markets Week Ahead: S&P 500, Gold, US Dollar, Global Inflation Data, US Earnings Season

Global equity markets rose while the US dollar slipped in the past week on growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Key focus is now on Euro area, UK, Japan, Canada, and New Zealand inflation data in the coming week as the US earnings picks up steam.

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Friday, 14 April 2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Within Touching Distance of a New All-Time High

The precious metal is within $30 of making a new all-time high as buyers continue to dominate price action. US data out later may fuel the next leg higher.

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Thursday, 13 April 2023

Australian Dollar Flies High with Kiwi on Sinking US Dollar. Where to for AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar hit the after-burners overnight, stretching to a 7-week peak following soft US inflation data that also boosted the New Zealand Dollar. Where does that leave AUD/NZD?

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US Dollar Continues to Get Punished as Traders Feel No Need for Safety as Stocks Soar

Traders continued punishing the US Dollar amid a lack of reason for safety as the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 soared on Thursday. Will DXY confirm its worst week since early January?

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S&P 500 Soars as Falling Inflation Boosts Fed Pause Hopes, Bank Earnings in Focus

The S&P 500 rallied and closed at its best level since mid-February, boosted by weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Market attention now shifts to the first-quarter earnings season

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US Dollar in Freefall, USD/CAD Breaches Major Support, GBP/USD on Brink of Breakout

The U.S. dollar weakens across the board on Thursday, paving the way for USD/CAD to breach key trendline support and pushing GBP/USD to the brink of a bullish breakout.

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Oil Price Update: OPEC Flags Downside Risks to US Summer Demand

OPEC’s monthly report for March highlighted the possibility of a subdued rise in US oil demand ahead of the summer driving season as part of the decision to cut supply

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US Dollar Price Forecast: US Jobless Claims and PPI May add to USD Weakness

The dollar continued its longer-term selloff after yesterday’s headline CPI data registered a massive drop. PPI inflation & weekly jobs data threaten further USD declines

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British Pound Latest – GBP/USD Moves Higher on Mixed GDP Data, US Dollar Weakness

The UK economy stood still in February, according to the latest UK GDP data, hampered by industrial action in some parts of the services sector.

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Wednesday, 12 April 2023

Gold Price Eyes New Highs as US Dollar Wilts on Soft CPI. Will XAU/USD Rally?

The gold price scoped new highs after the US Dollar descended in the wake of CPI printing below forecasts and Fed meeting minutes revealing a tapering of sorts. Where to for XAU/USD?

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Australian Dollar Boosted by Solid Jobs Data and Weaker USD. Where to for AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar moved higher after better-than-forecast employment data today. It comes with the US Dollar undermined by soft CPI data and Fed meeting minutes. Higher AUD/USD?

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US Dollar Extends Losses as Fed Minutes Flag Recession Risks amid Banking Sector Turmoil

Minutes from the Fed's March meeting indicate that the banking sector turmoil that erupted last month could lead to tighter lending standards and pave the way for a recession later this year.

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Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady & Sticks to Data Dependency, USD/CAD Slides

At the conclusion of its April monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain its policy rate at 4.50%, with a commitment to remain data dependent.

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Gold Price Forecast: Key Confluence Area in Sight Ahead of US CPI Data

Spot Gold eyes fresh highs as it reclaimed the psychological $2000 mark yesterday. Make or Break time for the precious metal?

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British Pound (GBP/USD) Forecast Led by US CPI, FOMC Minutes and Gov Bailey

GBP/USD price outlook is in for a volatile afternoon today with key US economic data and the BOE’s Governor Bailey scheduled to speak.

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Tuesday, 11 April 2023

US Dollar Gives up Ground Ahead of CPI Data and Japanese Yen Also Slips

The US Dollar softened today as the market awaits the latest US inflation gauge due out later today. There is potential for significant market impact from the data. Where to for USD/JPY?

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Crude Oil Price Finds Comfort Ahead of a Potential Breakout. Where to for WTI?

Crude oil prices have become ensconced in the elevated levels achieved by OPEC+ output target cuts while underlying market structures appear to be supportive for now. Will WTI go higher?

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IMF Warns of Global Economic Slowdown, Core Inflation to Decline Slowly

The latest IMF World Economic Outlook – A Rocky Recovery – sees global output falling in 2023 with advanced economies hit the hardest.

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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Yen Faces Short-Term Pressure Following Ueda Inauguration

USD/JPY looks to rise as the new BoJ Governor vows to stick with easing monetary policy for now with price action and technicals also supporting further short-term gains.

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British Pound Latest – GBP/USD Starts the Week on a Positive Note

GBP/USD starts the session on the front foot and back above 1.2400. Early US dollar weakness is helping the move ahead of important US releases on Wednesday.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Consumer Confidence Hits Fresh Yearly Highs, Aussie Bid

The AUD is trading higher this morning after a positive China/Australia deal may remove tariffs on local barley while Westpac consumer confidence beat estimates.

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Monday, 10 April 2023

US Dollar Extends Rise as Liquidity Comes Back and Markets Absorb NFP Report

The US Dollar gained on Monday as liquidity came back online and markets fully absorbed Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Will DXY’s momentum hold ahead?

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Gold Prices Fall as Traders Raise Odds of More Fed Tightening after Solid Jobs Data

Gold begins the week on the back foot, dragged down by the rally in the U.S. dollar and the increased likelihood of a May FOMC rate hike, but maintains a bullish medium-term outlook.

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Q2 Top Trade Idea: Short USD/JPY on Fed Pause Signal, JPY Safe Haven Appeal

USD rate expectations price in multiple rate cuts for 2023 while the yen appears poised to capitalise on its safe-haven appeal and possible policy normalisation

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Q2 Top Trade Idea: Long USD/CAD, Rate Differential and Price Action Support Further Upside

USDCAD remains on course for higher prices despite a recent pullback. Is 1.4000 still possible?

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Sunday, 9 April 2023

Can the Japanese Yen rely on its safe-haven appeal in Q2 - Will USD retaliate?

While the BoJ is expected to maintain the current status quo throughout Q2, the focus remains on the Fed's next move.

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Will Systemic Risks Make or Break Bitcoin in Q2?

As fears of financial instability continue to drive risk sentiment, Bitcoin prices have surged and could continue to be driven by the same systemic risks in the second quarter.

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US Dollar May Keep Weighing on the Chinese Yuan if Exports Soften

An anticipated weakening in Chinese exports for the second quarter y/y could keep the US Dollar pressuring the Yuan. USD/CNH may be eyeing a 7.08 – 7.52 zone in the coming months.

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Volatility May See Range Breaks across Markets but Trends Might be Short-Lived

Going into the second quarter, the macro environment for financial markets is characterized by stubbornly high inflation and an evolving banking crisis. Will volatility continue to evolve?

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Markets in the Second Quarter: S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, Euro, Recession Woes

To some, how markets performed in the first quarter might have come as a surprise. But, is price action deviating away from the fundamentals? What are the key markets to watch in Q2?

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US Dollar Q2 Fundamental Forecast: USD Weakness to Make Headway as Fed Abandons Hawkish Pledge

The U.S. dollar is likely to have a challenging second quarter as the Fed’s tightening campaign comes to an end and markets begin to price in rate cuts for the second half of the year.

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Saturday, 8 April 2023

Oil Fundamental Forecast: WTI to Head Lower in Q2 as Fundamentals Weaken

OPEC forecasts a drop in global oil demand in Q2 as the Biden administration backtracks on SPR refills, effectively removing a zone of support

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Euro Q2 Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Presents Attractive Price Action for Now

Despite retaining a positive bias in early 2023, EUR/USD has lacked strong bullish conviction. The outlook, however, could change if prices break out of recent ranges.

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Japanese Yen Q2 2023 Fundamental Forecast: Safe Haven Appeal to Keep Yen Supported

The Yen looks set to benefit from its safe-haven appeal, while the incoming BoJ Governor Ueda is likely to keep policy unchanged in the short-term.

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British Pound Q2 2023 Technical Forecast: GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

Are there any attractive Q2 set-ups against Sterling? Two currencies spring to mind.

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Friday, 7 April 2023

Gold Q2 2023 Technical Forecast: Uncertainty Lies Ahead for XAU/USD

Spot gold looks to the upside at the start of Q2 2023 from a technical perspective as XAU/USD eyes the $2000 resistance handle, but how long will this last?

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US Dollar Outlook – Direction of Travel May Be Lower as Jobs Data Overstates Strength

The U.S. dollar traded slightly higher heading into the weekend following the release of the March U.S. jobs report, but is likely to head lower if the Fed embraces a more cautious approach.

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March Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 236,000, Wage Growth Cools to 4.2%

The U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in March, a healthy but slower pace of hiring than seen earlier in the year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% previously.

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Thursday, 6 April 2023

Australian Dollar Drops as Currency Markets Await US NFPs, Will AUD/USD Keep Going?

The Australian Dollar fell as US jobless claims data briefly jittered markets ahead of the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report. Will AUD/USD extend lower next?

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British Pound Latest – GBP/USD Trying to Confirm New Support, NFPs Near

GBP/USD is stuck in another tight range today with very little macro news to spark a move. That will likely change tomorrow with the highly anticipated release of the latest US Jobs Report.

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EUR/USD Eyeing Key Support Test Ahead of NFP

EUR/USD failed to reach the 1.1000 level yesterday before a resurgent dollar saw the pair retreat to daily support around the 1.0900 handle. Where to next for EURUSD?

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Echoes Uncertain Global Sentiment

Gold prices are cautious ahead of Friday’s NFP data as conflicting fundamental factors remain in play. XAU/USD holding above $2000.

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Wednesday, 5 April 2023

Crude Oil Slides as US Data Underwhelms Pushing Yields Down. Lower WTI?

The crude oil price slipped again today as markets digest the implications of US data missing forecasts to send the US Dollar higher and Treasury yields lower. Will WTI crumble?

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US Dollar Gains on Soft Data that May Signal a Shift in Market Perception for USD

The US Dollar is stronger today amid a break in correlations of markets with discerning data interpretation moving into focus. If the twist remains in play, will USD go higher?

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Nasdaq 100 Dips as Soft ISM Services Data Fuels Economic Woes, Will Support Hold?

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperformed on Wednesday as soft US ISM Services data fueled economic woes. Will key support hold as traders turn towards Thursday’s session?

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Euro Latest: EUR/USD Holding Weekly Gains, Bulls Eye 1.1000+

EUR/USD is stuck in a tight trading range today as the Euro consolidates its recent strong performance against the US dollar. A fresh multi-month EUR/USD high is within touching distance.

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GBP/USD at Multi-Month Highs, Acceptance Above the 1.2500 Level Remains Key

Cable retreated from multi-month highs this morning as support at 1.2449 comes into play. Will US data later provide fresh impetus for further downside or is acceptance above 1.2500 inevitable?

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: RBA Governor Lowe Unable to Deter Falling Aussie Dollar

The Australian dollar remains on offer despite the RBA’s Governor Lowe stating that they are leaving the door open to further rate hikes. AUD/USD bears eye 0.67.

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Tuesday, 4 April 2023

Gold Price Glistens as the US Dollar and Treasury Yield Slide. Where to for XAU/USD?

The gold price made new highs today after the US Dollar and Treasury yields descended on soft data, while crude oil maintained the high ground. Will XAU/USD keep rallying?

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New Zealand Dollar Soars as RBNZ Surprises with a More Aggressive Hike, Where to?

The New Zealand Dollar shot higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly hiked rates to 5.25% from 4.75%, markets were looking for 5%. Where to for NZD/USD?

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S&P 500 Stalls at Trendline Resistance as Sentiment Sours. Where Next for Stocks?

S&P 500 turns lower after failing to clear trendline resistance at 4,140, a sign that bullish momentum may be vanishing just as sentiment begins to sour again.

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Euro Price Forecast: EUR/USD 1.09 Handle About to Break?

EUR/USD continues its battle with the 1.09 level which may be pierced in due course ahead of a US data filled week.

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Monday, 3 April 2023

Australian Dollar Dips After RBA Leave Rates Unchanged. Will AUD/USD Top Out?

The Australian Dollar gave up some ground with the RBA keeping the cash rate at 3.60% but not ruling out further tightening down the track. Is a pause enough to push AUD/USD lower?

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Crude Oil Price Steady After Stunning Run Higher on OPEC+ News. Where to for WTI?

Crude oil prices are enjoying the view from new heights after an astonishing leap to start the week on the back of OPEC+ cutting their production targets. Will WTI recover further?

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US Dollar Slide Fast Approaching Pivotal Support Zone After ISM Manufacturing Miss

The US Dollar continued its slide, with disappointing ISM Manufacturing amplifying its selloff. This means the DXY Dollar Index is quickly approaching a pivotal area of support.

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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Breaks Down as Oil Soars, Trendline Support at Risk

USD/CAD breaks below the psychological 1.3500 level on Monday and falls towards trendline support at 1.3420, the next important technical floor to watch in the near term.

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GBP/USD Defies Confluence Resistance, EUR/USD at Brink of Major Bullish Breakout

GBP/USD and EUR/USD rally at the start of the week, supported by broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, with both pairs advancing towards key technical resistance levels at the time of writing.

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US Dollar (DXY) Pares Opening Gains After Rate Hike Expectations Move Higher

The US dollar is giving back all this morning’s opening gains after this weekend’s OPEC+ output cut gave rate hike expectations a push higher.

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EUR/USD Recovers Above the 1.0800 Handle as Sentiment Improves

EURUSD has rallied some 70-odd pips from its Asian session lows as the 1.0800 level remains pivotal. Where to next for EURUSD?

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USD/CAD Price Forecast: Cyclical Canadian Dollar Pauses at Key Technical Level

USD/CAD teeters on the edge of a major support zone that if broken could see the loonie tumble. A big fundamental week lies ahead that could lead to such a move for CAD.

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Sunday, 2 April 2023

Gold Price Dips as US Dollar Firms While Crude Oil Soars. Where to for XAU/USD?

The gold price slipped today with the US Dollar tracking higher along with Treasury yields due to inflation fears reigniting after OPEC+ cut oil production targets. Lower XAU/USD?

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Crude Oil Price Gaps Higher on OPEC+ Output Cut Compounding Supply Issues. Higher WTI?

Crude oil prices leapt higher to start the week after an unorthodox announcement from OPEC+ to cut output, stoking concerns of a surge in inflation. Will WTI hold the gains?

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Markets Q2 Outlook: US Dollar, Gold, Oil, Dow, Euro, Yen, Sterling, AUD, BTC

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has so far seen markets squarely focus on the upside of dovish central banks as the first quarter ended. Will markets continue having it easy in the second?

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US Dollar Q2 Technical Forecast: Sellers Take Hold of Steering Wheel

The U.S. dollar heads into the second quarter with a negative bias, challenging a key technical support and at risk of a significant breakdown that could put the February lows in play.

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Saturday, 1 April 2023

WTI Technical Forecast: Long-Term Downtrend Remains but Signs of Fatigue Appear

Q1 unfolded with price action oscillating between key levels. Q2 shows potential for a continuation of the long-term downtrend but signs of fatigue are showing

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Euro Q2 Fundamental Forecast: Recovery May Continue but Upside Will Be Limited

EUR/USD has the potential to keep strengthening during the second quarter of 2023, but its upside will be limited considering the current macro and financial backdrop.

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Japanese Yen Q2 Technical Forecast: Yen Looks Set for Gains in Q2

The Yen has displayed resilience in the final month of Q1 as recent price action hints at Yen strength in the months ahead.

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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...