Monday, 31 July 2023

HK/China Equities Attempt to Build Base on Stimulus Hopes; Hang Seng, CSI 300 Price Setups

China/Hong Kong equities appear to be in the early stages of base building amid hopes of further stimulus. What is the outlook and what are the levels to watch in the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300 Index?

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Australian Dollar Whipsaws After RBA Pause Again on Hiking Cycle. Lower AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar eventually ran lower after the RBA decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.10%. The softer than forecast quarterly CPI appears to have been the catalyst. Where to for AUD/USD?

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British Pound Toppish Ahead of BOE: GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD Price Setups

The chances of a smaller interest rate hike at the Bank of England’s (BOE) meeting on Thursday are growing as UK price pressures appear to be finally moderating from elevated levels. What is the outlook for GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, and GBP/NZD?

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Wall Street Drifts Higher Overnight, RBA Meeting in Focus: Russell 2000, Hang Seng Index, Brent Crude

Wall Street drifts higher overnight, as sentiments remain largely on its cautiously optimistic state ahead of more big tech earnings releases and the US job report this week.

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Crude Oil Punches Higher as OPEC+ Cuts Bite and Economic Outlook Brightens

Crude oil prices had a stellar month in July as underlying the dynamics of potentially less supply and more demand come to fruition. The structure of the WTI might also be supportive.

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S&P 500, Nasdaq Outlook: US Stocks Embrace Potential ‘Soft Landing’

US equities are set to rise in July as the Fed nears peak rates. Better-than-expected US data reignites hopes of a soft landing ahead of Apple and Amazon Q2 earnings

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FTSE 100, Dax and Dow Look for Further Gains

Indices enjoyed a strong few days last week, with both the Dax and Dow reaching new highs for the year, while the FTSE 100 closed in on 7700 once more.

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USD/ZAR Price Forecast: Rand Softer on Chinese PMI & SA Balance of Trade

The ZAR has given up some of Friday’s gains as concerns around the Chinese economy gained traction while South Africa’s balance of trade data disappointed.

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Euro Area Growth Ticks Higher; EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1000

In the second quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.3%, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat.

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GBP Price Forecast: Pound Readies for BoE

GBP has been on the backfoot of recent against both the EUR and USD but with a likely hike from the BoE this week, the pound may find its footing once more.

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Sunday, 30 July 2023

Japanese Yen After YCC Tweak; Has the Trend Changed in USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY?

The Japanese yen reversed its gains sharply toward the end of last week as the market digested BOJ’s yield curve control tweak. Has the trend changed in USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, and EUR/JPY?

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US Dollar Gains as Yields in JGB and Treasury Markets Rise. Where to for USD?

The US Dollar grabbed the higher ground again today with Treasury yields joining JGBs at a higher level. A firm China PMI read also helped growth-aligned assets in the region. Higher DXY?

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All eyes on China with subdued PMI and more stimulus measures: US dollar, Hang Seng Tech Index, AUD/USD

China’s still-weak PMI read may justify recent efforts by authorities to lift China’s growth picture, as market participants look towards more measures to boost consumption later today.

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Australian Dollar Blipped Up on China Data. Will AUD/USD Continue to Recover?

The Australian Dollar skipped higher immediately after China’s primary manager’s index (PMI) data outperformed estimates before retreating. The RBA lies ahead. Will they hike or not?

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Markets Week Ahead: US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar, RBA, NFPs

The US Dollar mostly outperformed this past week as the Euro and Japanese Yen fell. Ahead, eyes are on the RBA for the Australian Dollar and US non-farm payrolls data for the Dow Jones.

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Saturday, 29 July 2023

Crude Oil Forecast: Attention Shifts to OPEC Production Cuts

Brent crude oil prices look to next week with forward momentum as markets await further information from OPEC their production projections for September.

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Friday, 28 July 2023

Dax Hits New Intraday Record, Dow Edges Higher, Nikkei Holds on After BoJ Decision

​​The Dax rallied to a fresh intraday high yesterday, while the Dow is moving up once more. The Nikkei rallied off its lows after the mixed signals created by the BoJ’s latest policy decision.​

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Double Top Breaks Aussie Dollar

AUD has suffered at the hands of a strengthening US dollar while Australian retail sales shows a slowing economy as rates hamper consumer spending.

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Thursday, 27 July 2023

US Dollar in the Crosshairs as BoJ Tilts Post ECB and Fed Decisions. Lower USD/JPY?

The US Dollar ascendency got back on track after a tumultuous few trading sessions that has seen most of the major global central banks have their say of the future of monetary policy.

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Japanese Yen Drops as BOJ Keeps Policy Unchanged: What’s Next for USD/JPY?

The Japanese yen dropped against the US dollar after the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) kept its ultra-loose policy settings and maintained the cap on the JGB 10-year yield. What’s next for USD/JPY?

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Cautious Risk Tone, with Chatters of a Policy Adjustment from the BoJ: USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, EUR/JPY

A jump in Treasury yields kept the pressure on risk sentiments, driven by stronger-than-expected US economic data and chatters of a policy adjustment from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

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USD/JPY in Turmoil, Rumors of Possible BoJ YCC Tweak Sends Yen Soaring

USD/JPY slumps following reports that the Bank of Japan could tweak its yield curve control program at its July monetary policy meeting, as part of a strategy to start moving away from its ultra-loose stance.

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US Dollar Weakens Ahead of ECB decision and US Q2 GDP Data

After an uneventful FOMC meeting and press conference, a popular dollar benchmark heads lower as traders eye the ECB interest rate announcement

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European Central Bank (ECB) Preview: 25bps and Done or More Hikes in the Offing?

With a 25bps hike largely expected and priced in by market participants, will the ECB shift to data dependency moving forward as recessionary fears rise. Let’s take a look at what to expect.

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Wednesday, 26 July 2023

US Equity Indices Post FOMC: Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Price Setups

US equity indices were largely flat, hovering around year-to-date highs after the Fed hiked interest rates by the widely expected quarter percentage point. What’s next for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 index?

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US Dollar Slips After Fed Rate Hike: What Has Changed for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY?

USD slipped but held well within the recent range after the Fed hiked interest rates by the widely expected 25bps and on balance kept its options open for further tightening. What does this mean for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY?

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Asia Day Ahead: Lukewarm Reaction to Fed Meeting

The Fed has hiked its policy interest rate by 25 bp and left the door open for another hike, but additional tightening moves are perceived to lack commitment at current point in time.

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EUR/USD Up After Fed Hike but Skating on Thin Ice, ECB Guidance Key to Outlook

The upcoming European Central Bank monetary policy announcement and guidance will play a crucial role in shaping the near-term directional bias of EUR/USD.

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USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Delicately Poised Ahead of Central Bank Week

The Yen enjoyed a slight uptick to start the week. Will the Fed and ECB rate decisions increase the likelihood of FX intervention by the BoJ?

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Tuesday, 25 July 2023

Could the Fed Trigger a Deeper Retreat in Bitcoin & Ethereum? BTC/USD & ETH/USD Price Action

This week’s drop makes Bitcoin and Ethereum vulnerable to any hawkish tone from the FOMC meeting later Wednesday. What are the key levels to watch in BTC/USD and ETH/USD?

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Crude Oil Price Eases After Solid Rally as US Dollar Eyes the Fed Ahead. Higher WTI?

Crude oil dipped slightly to start Wednesday as the market looks to the Fed meeting later today for hints on the direction of the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Where to for WTI?

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US Dollar Scenarios Ahead of Fed Rate Decision: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Price Setups

The US dollar has rebounded slightly against its peers ahead of the key US Federal Reserve interest rate decision later Wednesday. What are the potential scenarios for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY?

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Australian Dollar Sinks on Benign CPI Data. Where to for AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar ran lower immediately after headline CPI printed at 6.0% year-on-year to the end of June, taking the heat out potential hikes by the RBA. Will AUD/USD rally?

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Fed Preview: Gold Prices and US Dollar’s Outlook Hinges on Powell’s Guidance

The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 bp to 5.25%-5.50% at the end of its July meeting, but guidance is likely to be more important to the U.S. dollar and gold's prospects than rate hike itself, which is already fully priced in.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Fleeting Pound Recovery?

GBP has been knocked back by weak UK economic data while the Fed looks to tighten its monetary policy once more. More downside to come for the pound?

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Monday, 24 July 2023

Australian Dollar Surges on China Stimulus Pledge; AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD Price Action

The Australian dollar surged against some of its peers after Chinese authorities pledged to stimulate the economy. What is the outlook for AUD/USD, GBP/AUD, and EUR/AUD?

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Hang Seng Index (HSI) Climbs on Stimulus Aspirations. Will China Drive HSI Higher?

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) found firmer footing after reports emerged that Beijing is looking to bolster its economy. Meanwhile, the US Dollar eased ahead of the Fed meeting.

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Is Gold’s Rebound Over Ahead of FOMC? XAU/USD Price Setups

Gold’s rally appears to be losing steam ahead of the US Fed, the ECB, and the BOJ policy meetings. What is the outlook on XAU/USD and what are the key levels to watch?

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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY Trend Hinges on Fed, ECB and BoJ Outlook; Volatility Ahead

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY could experience increased volatility ahead of key events later this week, including monetary policy announcements from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan.

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Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Fumbles Ahead of Fed and Bank of Japan Decision

The Fed and BoJ monetary policy announcement later this week will be key in determining the near-term directional bias of USD/JPY.

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GBP/USD Sinks as UK PMI Disappoints, EUR/GBP Eyes Bearish Continuation

Cable struggled this morning as UK PMI painted a concerning picture with rising interest rates clearly starting to take a toll on the UK economy. Tough job ahead for the BoE.

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Euro Breaking News: Dreadful German PMI Pushes EUR/USD Below 1.11

The euro immediately sold off after German PMI’s missed forecasts ahead of the ECB’s highly anticipated rate announcement later this week.

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Sunday, 23 July 2023

US Dollar Holds the High Ground Ahead of Fed, ECB and BoJ Meetings. Higher USD?

The US Dollar ascendency got back on track last week as markets eye Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate decision ahead of the ECB and the BoJ’s meetings. Will the DXY (USD) trend north?

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New Zealand Dollar Ahead of Fed Rate Decision; NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD Price Setups

The New Zealand dollar is holding its recently established ranges against some of its peers. What is the outlook for NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, and EUR/NZD?

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Asia Day Ahead: Sentiment in Check Ahead of US Fed Meeting

The start of the new trading week could potentially bring about some indecision, before volatility picked up on the onslaught of big tech earnings and the FOMC meeting towards the latter half.

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Japanese Yen Slides as Speculation Mounts Ahead of BoJ Meeting. Where to for USD/JPY?

The Japanese Yen steadied to start the week after sinking going into last weekend with the US Dollar gaining traction across the board. The Fed and BoJ meet this week. Higher USD/JPY?

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Markets Week Ahead: Gold, Euro, USD, Yen Await Fed, ECB & BoJ; Big Tech Earnings Eyed

Interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, as well as the results of technology companies, will steal the spotlight in the coming week.

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Saturday, 22 July 2023

Crude Oil Forecast: Prices Supported by Oil Fundamentals as FOMC Looms

Crude oil prices looks to US economic data for direction this week after 4th consecutive positive close for WTI.

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Friday, 21 July 2023

Euro (EUR/USD) Forecast – All Eyes on the Fed and ECB Next Week

This week’s US dollar rebound has hit EUR/USD hard and sent the pair tumbling back towards 1.1100 and potentially lower.

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Aussie Dollar Dwindling Ahead of FOMC

AUD remains on the backfoot against the USD as markets prepare for the FOMC announcement next week, while technical analysis suggests further downside to come.

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Stock indices, except the FTSE 100, consolidate ahead of weekend

​Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid mixed U.S. earnings and strong UK retail sales.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Positive Retail Sales Temporarily Lifts the Pound

Cable caught a bounce this morning on positive retail sales numbers. Is the rebound sustainable or will we see further weakness ahead of a busy 2-week period of Central Bank meetings?

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Thursday, 20 July 2023

Japanese Yen Steady After CPI; USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, MXN/JPY Price Action

The Japanese yen was steady even as price pressures in Japan re-accelerated last month amid the growing view that inflation is peaking. What does this mean for USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, and MXN/JPY?

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Profit-Taking in Big Tech Overnight, as US Earnings Remain Centre Stage: US Dollar, Nikkei 225, AUD/JPY

Wall Street ended mixed overall, with further catch-up gains in value sectors as the DJIA delivered its nineth day winning streak.

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Dow Makes Progress and Nasdaq 100 Edges Lower, but Nikkei 225 Comes Under Pressure​​​​

​The Dow is sitting close to the 2023 it hit yesterday, while the Nasdaq has seen momentum dissipate. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 has seen a wave of selling that threatens to negate the bullish view seen earlier in the week.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro Fading Into Central Bank Week?

The euro looks to be running out of steam despite persistent high inflation ahead of next weeks ECB and FOMC announcements.

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Wednesday, 19 July 2023

Crude Oil Steadies as Markets Assess US Dollar Direction. Will WTI Regain High Ground?

The crude oil price decent pause to start Thursday’s session as markets assess energy demand with China leaving rates unchanged. If the US Dollar resume sliding, can WTI break the range?

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What’s Changed for British Pound After UK CPI? GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD Price Setups

The British pound looks set to retreat slightly against its peers following evidence that price pressures in the UK are finally moderating from elevated levels. What’s next for GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, and EUR/GBP?

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Asia Day Ahead: Mixed Showing in Asia as Markets Digest NFLX, TSLA Earnings

After-market earnings releases from Netflix and Tesla have brought about a mixed showing in US equity futures this morning.

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Australian Dollar Leaps on Hot Jobs Data Ahead of CPI. Where to for AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar jumped higher after employment data today revealed a re-tightening of the labour market that might put pressure on the RBA at its August meeting.

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Australia Roundup: ASX 200 Rises on Weaker AUD, Iron Ore Reversal Potential

The Australian dollar has pared back much of the recent gains when the dollar sold off aggressively. Positive earnings in the US underpin global risk appetite for now

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Stock indices continue to rise on solid U.S. earnings and weaker UK CPI

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid better-than-expected U.S. earnings and slowing UK inflation.

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UK (GBP) Breaking News: UK CPI Miss Troubles Pound

GBP weakened against both the USD and EUR this morning after UK inflation figures fell further than expected.

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Tuesday, 18 July 2023

Euro Ahead Euro Area CPI: EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/JPY Price Setups

The euro is testing the top end of the recent range against some of its peers ahead of the key Euro area inflation data later Wednesday and next week’s key central bank meetings. How EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and EUR/AUD look?

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Gold Jumps After Tepid US Retail Sales; What’s Next for XAU/USD After Reverse H&S Target Met?

Gold jumped after US retail sales rose less than expected in June which weighed on US Treasury yields and the greenback. How much more for gold to rise?

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Catch-up Gain in Value Sectors Overnight, Focus Remains on US Earnings: DJIA, NZD/USD,GBP/USD

Better-than-expected earnings results from major US banks provided the go-ahead for the Wall Street rally to continue, with some catch-up gains in the value sectors.

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New Zealand Dollar Soars as Inflation Beat Drives More RBNZ Tightening Bets

The New Zealand Dollar may rise after stronger local inflation data inspired traders to price in another RBNZ rate hike later this year. Where to for NZD/USD?

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US Dollar Dancing on Horizontal Support ahead of Fed Decision Next Week

After a sharp drop during the first half of the month, the U.S. dollar has stalled in recent days, with prices in consolidation mode around key technical support as traders await new market drivers.

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Monday, 17 July 2023

S&P 500 Outlook Over Next 1-2 Months: Broadening Participation Points to Further Gains

Improving market breadth points to further gains in the S&P 500 index in the coming weeks as the earnings season picks up steam. What is the one-month and two-month outlook for the S&P 500 index?

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Euro Ekes Out Gains as the US Dollar Reins in the Bears for Now. Where to for EUR/USD?

The Euro printed a new high despite the US Dollar pausing in its descent going into Tuesday’s session with next week’s ECB and Fed meetings moving into view. Will EUR/USD reverse?

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British Pound Ahead of UK CPI: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY Price Action

The British pound is holding on to its recent gains ahead of the key UK inflation data as speculative long GBP positioning is at its highest level since 2014. How do GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, and EUR/GBP look?

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Sentiment Awaiting Cues from Key US Earnings Releases Ahead: Brent crude, AUD/JPY, Natural Gas

Wall Street started the new trading week on a positive footing, as risk appetite rose ahead of several key earnings releases this week.

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Crude Oil Price Rolls Over on China Growth Woes and Libya Re-open. Lower WTI?

Crude oil prices are teetering lower after China’s GDP missed estimates and Libya reopened several oil fields. WTI has retreated back into the range, will this pattern persist?

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S&P 500 Outlook: Make or Break Week for Stocks ahead of Netflix, Tesla Earnings

The S&P 500 begins the week on the front foot, notching its best close in 2023 ahead of this week's key corporate earnings reports, which include results from Netflix and Tesla.

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USD/CNH, Copper Outlook: Worrisome Chinese Data Takes Hold

Lackluster Chinese Q2 GDP data paints a worrying picture for Chinese related assets including copper. USD/CNH bullish momentum in doubt after US dollar selloff

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WTI and Brent Start Week on the Back Foot as Chinese GDP Underwhelms

Oil prices finished last week on the back foot with underwhelming Chinese data this morning unlikely to help. Are we in for a retracement before bullish continuation?

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Sunday, 16 July 2023

US Dollar Finds Traction While China GDP Misses Estimates. Where to for USD?

The US Dollar consolidated to start the week while soft Chinese GDP numbers highlight growing concern for the economic recovery there. With the Fed in a blackout, where to for USD?

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Gold Price Gives Up Some Gains as the US Dollar Steadies. Where to for XAU/USD?

The gold price is in the middle of its recent range near US$ 1,950 going into the new week with a US Dollar at a crossroads while the Fed is in a blackout period ahead of the FOMC.

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Australian Dollar Holds Losses After China GDP; How Much More Downside in AUD/USD?

The Australian dollar held the day’s losses against the US dollar after the Chinese economy grew less than expected in the second quarter. How much more downside in AUD/USD?

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Asia Day Ahead: Subdued Start to the Week Ahead of Key China Data

Earnings results from major US banks were somewhat mixed to end last week, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund having formed a bearish engulfing candle on its daily chart.

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Markets Week Ahead: Gold, EUR/USD, S&P 500 Break Out as USD Tanks; Tesla Earnings Eyed

Gold, the Nasdaq 100, EUR/USD and GBP/USD all soared this week, while the US dollar broke down after US CPI data surprised to the downside. Traders should keep an eye on whether recent market moves can be sustained as the US earnings season gets underway.

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Friday, 14 July 2023

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Breakout Gains Momentum but Fibonacci Resistance on Radar

EUR/USD rallied aggressively this past week, rising to its best level since February 2022. With momentum on its side, the pair’s outlook remains positive, but Fibonacci resistance may cap its upside going forward.

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EUR/USD Catches its Breath at Multi-Months Highs, Where to Next?

EUR/USD has been on a tear this week, on course for its largest weekly gain since November 2022. Can the dollar regain any semblance of strength ahead of the July FOMC meeting?

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USD/JPY Edges Up After Bruising Week, Japanese Yields Rise

The Japanese Yen has gained fully from general Dollar weakness as markets reassess US rate-rise chances

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GBP/USD Price Outlook: Dollar Selloff Drives Cable Rally Ahead of UK CPI

Cable’s impressive rally has been largely driven by the USD selloff. Additionally, the disconnect in US/UK inflation dynamics bodes well for sterling ahead of UK CPI

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Equity Rally Loses Some Steam as U.S. Earnings Season Kicks Off in Earnest​​​

​​Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as the Q2 earnings season kicks off with the likes of JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Blackrock.

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Gold (XAU/USD) Consolidates Recent Gains After Stubborn Resistance Falls

Renewed US dollar weakness has given gold the strength to take out a layer of stubborn resistance that has been holding the precious metal back for weeks.

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Thursday, 13 July 2023

Bitcoin & Ethereum After Ripple Wins SEC Case: Preparing for an Advance

Cryptocurrencies jumped after a US judge ruled on Thursday that Ripple Labs Inc did not violate federal securities law by selling its XRP token on public exchanges. Technical charts suggest Bitcoin and Ethereum could be preparing for another leg higher.

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Oil Price Forecast: WTI and Brent Face Technical Hurdles. Where to Next?

Oil prices recent rally has run into some technical headwinds with US data later today likely to be key once more. Can Oil prices sustain recent gains and head higher?

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Gold Prices Hang on At Highs, Benign US CPI Prompts Rate Rethink

Non-yielding gold got a boost from news that the Fed seems to be winning its war on inflation.

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Dow, Nikkei 225 and CAC40 Rise after US CPI data

Indices worldwide were given a lift by US inflation data yesterday, which showed a slower pace of price growth, easing the pressure on the Fed to raise rates again.

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EUR/USD Soars on USD Weakness, EUR/GBP Struggles Against GBP Strength

EUR/USD is back to highs seen at the end of March last year, while EUR/GBP is probing lows last seen just under a year ago.

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UK Economy Shrinks Less Than Expected in May, GBP/USD Breaches 1.3000

The UK economy continues to surprise as GDP is now estimated to be 0.2% above its pre-covid levels from February 2020. Given that further hikes are expected, are recessionary fears justified?

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Wednesday, 12 July 2023

Gold Boosted by US CPI; Reverse Head & Shoulders Triggers in XAU/USD

Gold rebounded after US inflation slowed more than expected in June, reinforcing market expectations that the US Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. To what extent could gold rise?

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Asia Day Ahead: Promising US Inflation Progress Drives Upbeat Market Mood

Lower-than-expected read in US inflation suggests that the tightening cycle from the Fed thus far are having its desired effect in moderating pricing pressures.

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GBPUSD Hits 15-Mo Peak On UK Rate-Hike Bets, Time for Pullback?

The Pound continues to garner strong support from the view that UK interest rates have much further to rise

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USD/JPY Plummets on Hotter Household Inflation Expectations

Inflation expectations point to sustained higher prices to claw back losses at an impressive rate as signs of demand driven inflation and sustained wage growth Inflation expectations point to sustained higher prices to claw back losses at an impressive rate as signs of demand driven inflation and sustained wage growth

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Stock Indices Remain Bid Ahead of US CPI Release

​​Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. inflation report for June.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro Shaped by US Factors

The euro looks to US CPI for short-term guidance after which Fed and ECB speakers will provide their perspectives.

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Tuesday, 11 July 2023

US Dollar Slips While Japanese Yen Rallies Ahead of US CPI. New Lows for USD?

The US Dollar descent continued going into today’s much anticipated US CPI data point. The Japanese Yen has moved into the box seat with speculation of the BoJ shifting gears.

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All eyes on US CPI ahead, with mixed session in Asia: DJIA, USD/JPY, NZD/USD

The usual cautious lead-up to the US CPI release has failed to deter risk appetite in Wall Street overnight, as major US indices pushed higher on strength in value sectors.

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Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY GBP/JPY EUR/JPY Price Setups

The yen appears to be back in favour as surging wage growth coupled with signs of demand driven inflation forces the Bank of Japan to take note

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Dow Nasdaq and Nikkei Struggle to Maintain Bullish Momentum

Indices posted gains yesterday, but a more cautious atmosphere prevails in early trading this morning.

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EUR/USD Hits Fresh 2-Month High Time for a Pullback?

EUR/USD faces a challenge in attempting to break the range high of 1.1100 without any significant change to the macro picture. Do bulls have enough juice or is another retracement incoming?

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Monday, 10 July 2023

UK Breaking News: Wage Growth Keeps Pound Bid

GBP/USD rises sharply to 1.2900 post-labor data after wage growth hits fresh yearly highs.

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Gold Price Firms While US Dollar Eases as Treasury Yields Dip. Where to for XAU/USD?

The gold price is inching higher while the US Dollar slides going into Tuesday despite several Fed speakers getting hawkish, mostly. Will Wednesday’s US CPI hold the keys to XAU/USD direction?

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New Zealand Dollar Flexes Muscles Ahead of RBNZ; NZD/USD EUR/NZD GBP/NZD Price Action

The New Zealand dollar is showing signs of building a base against some of its peers ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision on Wednesday. What is the outlook for NZD/USD, EUR/NZD, and GBP/NZD?

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European stocks indices to open lower on sluggish Chinese economy

​​Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as Chinese economy remains lacklustre.

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Australian Dollar Price Forecast: Chinese Inflation Hurts Pro-Growth AUD

AUD/USD looks ahead to Fed guidance later today after a weak start to the trading day.

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Sunday, 9 July 2023

Crude Oil Dips After Large Gains as US Dollar Finds Firmer Footing. Lower WTI?

The crude oil price eased a touch today as it remains trapped in a range with soft Chinese data and Madame Secretary Yellen not ruling out a US recession. US CPI is now in view.

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Gold Price Steadies as US Dollar Under Pressure Ahead of CPI. Where to for XAU/USD?

The gold price is poised near US$ 1,930 going into the new week with a US Dollar losing traction despite Treasury yields ticking north. Will real yields play a role in XAU/USD direction?

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Cracks Emerge in Japanese Yens Downtrend; USD/JPY CAD/JPY MXN/JPY Price Setups

The Japanese yen looks set this week to shed some of its gains against some of its peers, but cracks are starting to emerge in the Japanese currency’s broader downtrend that could limit any weakness.

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Asia Day Ahead: US Job Report Brings Cautious Start to the Week

Major US indices failed to retain its initial gains in the aftermath of the US June jobs report last week, with a mid-day sell-off on relative high volume forcing an eventual close in the red.

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Markets Q3 Outlook: Gold US Dollar Nasdaq 100 Crude Oil Fed Labor Markets

Financial markets remained resilient in the wake of a resurgence in hawkish central bank bets during the second quarter. Will this momentum hold in the third quarter?

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Saturday, 8 July 2023

Oil Fundamental Forecast: Q3 the Catalyst for Crude Oil?

Crude oil prices could be in for a positive Q3 with OPEC+ maintaining production cuts through to August.

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Friday, 7 July 2023

Australian Dollar Outlook: Central Banks Continue to Grapple with CPI

The Australian Dollar finished the second quarter not far from where it started after breaking both sides of an established range. Although some domestic factors have played a role in AUD/USD direction, the US Dollar remains a dominant factor for the currency.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Anxiously Eyes NFP Data

GBP/USD dismisses UK Halifax housing data as markets focus solely on the upcoming US NFP release.

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Gold (XAU/USD) Prices at Risk of Freefall Heading Into NFP Day

Spot Gold continued to probe the psychological $1900/oz level yesterday after red-hot US data. Will the NFP report provide the catalyst for a sustained break lower?

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Thursday, 6 July 2023

Crude Oil Holds the High Ground as US Jobs Data Lights Up. Higher WTI?

The crude oil price is scoping new highs as inventories drop and the US economy continues to track along at a clip with jobs data prompting a potentially more hawkish Fed. Where to for WTI?

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Japanese Yen Aided by Jump in Japan Wages: USD/JPY EUR/JPY AUD/JPY Price Setups

The Japanese yen found some bids after Japanese wages rose significantly more than expected, lowering the hurdle for the Bank of Japan to tweak its ultra-loose monetary policy. What is the outlook for USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and AUD/JPY?

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Asia Day Ahead: US Data Calls for Hawkish Bias in Feds Policy

Resilient labour market conditions and persistent services sector’s prices were not well-received by Wall Street yesterday, as the data called for a hawkish bias in Fed’s policies.

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Gold Prices on Downward Path and Probing Key Support Level Before US Jobs Data

Gold prices fall and approach an important Fibonacci support zone as U.S. Treasury yields rally violently following strong U.S. economic data. Attention now turns to the June NFP report.

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Gold Prices Still Weighed Down by Fed Rate-Hike Bets

Gold prices remain stuck with the prospect that global interest rates have further to rise. Against that backdrop, non-yielding assets will struggle

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Euro Price Forecast: EUR/GBP EUR/USD EUR/JPY Price Setups

The euro is expected to come under pressure as worsening fundamental data weighs on the continent. At the same time, other central banks ramp up rate hike talk

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Hawkish Fed Minutes put Pressure on Dow Nasdaq 100 and CAC40

Indices have come under fresh pressure this morning, after Fed minutes showed a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy in the US.​

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USD/CAD Price Forecast: Loonie Strength to Come?

USD/CAD bears could be in for a resumption of the longer-term downtrend ahead of key US and Canadian economic data.

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Wednesday, 5 July 2023

Gold Slips After FOMC Minutes; XAU/USD Scenario Ahead of US Jobs Data

Gold slipped after minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s June meeting kept alive hopes of another rate hike at the end of July. How does XAU/USD look ahead of the key US jobs data on Friday?

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Crude Oil Firms on OPEC Intentions and API Data. Will WTI Break the Range?

Crude oil prices have held the high ground going into Thursday after a solid rally in the aftermath of OPEC+ announcements and API stockpiles slipping again. Higher WTI?

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Asia Day Ahead: Little Surprise in Fed Minutes; Focus Now on US Jobs Data

Wall Street posted modest declines overnight, following its return from the holiday break.

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US Dollar Extends Gains as Fed Minutes Reinforce Hawkish Monetary Policy Outlook

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed that the central bank believes additional monetary policy tightening may be warranted to bring inflation back to the 2.0% target.

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Gold Price Outlook: Technical Levels for Gold and Silver Analysed

Gold and silver prices appear to be making a recovery but, in an environment, where US interest rates are expected to rise further, how much room to the upside is left?

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FTSE 100 DAX 40 and S&P 500 on a Negative Footing

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as the US re-opens after its Independence Day holiday

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AUD/USD Price Forecast: PMIs Hurt Aussie Dollar Ahead of FOMC Minutes

AUD/USD bears begin the day in charge but with FOMC minutes to come, will we see a breakout from the developing ascending triangle pattern?

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Tuesday, 4 July 2023

Crude Oil Range Bound Ahead of OPEC Gathering and FOMC Minutes

Crude oil prices appear somewhat in flux as traders look to today’s OPEC+ gathering that could see some market-moving headlines. The Fed’s FOMC meeting minutes may also provide some volatility.

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Asia Day Ahead: Focus on FOMC Minutes as US Markets Reopen After Holiday

With the US markets back online from the Independence Day holiday, market focus will be on the FOMC minutes ahead.

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Q3 Top Trade: Short EUR/GBP as A Hawkish BoE and Price Action Support Further Downside

EURGBP looks well on its way to print fresh lows in Q3 as the Bank of England faces the toughest challenge out of all the major Central Banks. 0.8200 incoming?

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Gold Price Steadies with US Dollar Sidelined but an RBA Pause Sinks AUD/USD

The gold price potentially reflects a holiday-impacted market with volatility easing across many asset classes. AUD/USD took a hit though when the RBA decided not to hike rates.

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Monday, 3 July 2023

Australian Dollar Dips After RBA Pause on Hike Cycle. Will AUD/USD Go Lower?

The Australian Dollar collapsed after the RBA decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.10%. The inflation gauges are now on centre stage for future rate moves. Where to for AUD/USD?

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Euro Ahead of US Jobs Data: EUR/USD EUR/AUD EUR/GBP Price Setups

The euro may have recouped some of its recent losses against some of its peers, but it would be premature to read the rebound as the start of a new leg higher for the single currency. What is the outlook for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, and EUR/AUD?

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Asia Day Ahead: Soft Start to the New Quarter; Key Focus on RBA Rate Decision

Major US indices drifted higher on lighter volume to deliver a positive start to the new quarter, as we head into the Independence Day holiday.

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Q3 Top Trade Opportunity: US Dollar May Extend its Rally Against the Chinese Yuan in the Third Quarter

The US Dollar may continue pressuring the Chinese Yuan in the third quarter with global growth still vulnerable to central banks that are keeping monetary policy tight

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Q3 Top Trade: S&P 500 Vulnerable to Pullback on Weak Fundamentals and Frothy Markets

The S&P 500 has rallied significantly in recent months, but could face serious challenges in the third quarter, especially if fundamentals worsen on hawkish monetary policy.

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USD/JPY Price Outlook: Carry Trade Continues Despite Intervention Talk

The Japanese yen remains an outlier within the G7 FX space as long as ultra-loose monetary policy appears to have no end in sight. Japan officials talk up ‘intervention’

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FTSE 100 DAX 40 and S&P 500 begin new quarter on positive footing

​​Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as a new month and quarter begin.

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XAU/USD Price Forecast: Quiet Start for Gold Manufacturing PMI in Focus

Gold prices trade slightly lower this morning as markets keenly await key US economic data throughout the week.

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Sunday, 2 July 2023

Australian Dollar Buoyed by Solid Data Locally and in China. Higher AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar tried to rally today after a large beat on local data and China’s better-than-expected Caixin PMI read. The 4th of July holidays may see skittish trading conditions.

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S&P 500 Nasdaq Ahead of US Jobs Data: No Sign of a Reversal

The uptrend in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 index is intact. However, there are some signs of fatigue emerging, especially on the technology-heavy index. What is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch?

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Asia Day Ahead: Lighter Start to the Week but Risk-On Prevails

The second quarter has concluded with a further pull-ahead in risk sentiments last Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level in 14 months.

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Markets Q3 Outlook: Gold Oil S&P 500 US Dollar Euro Pound Yen AUD BTC

Market dynamics could change and become hostile for some assets and friendlier for others in the coming months as major central banks extend their tightening campaign. Check out DailyFX team's trading forecasts for the third quarter.

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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...