Monday, 1 October 2018

Dow and Loonie Gap Higher on NAFTA Replacement, US Oil Hits 4-Year High

The Canadian Dollar surged on news of a renegotiated NAFTA deal, while the Euro has held steadfast in the wake of EU struggles with Italy.

Euro May Fall Further as Italy Clashes With EU on Budget

The Euro may continue to decline alongside Italian bond prices as markets brace for a budget clash between the government in Rome and the EU Commission.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro May Bounce, Trend Still Bearish

The Euro may rebound against the US Dollar after stalling near the 1.16 figure but gains are expected to be corrective within the context of a broader down move.

USMCA Deal Bolsters USD/CAD Downtrend as AUD/USD, EUR/AUD Eye RBA

The new trilateral NAFTA deal, named the USMCA, offered the Canadian Dollar aggressive gains as the USD/CAD downtrend was bolstered. Meanwhile, AUD/USD and EUR/AUD await the RBA.

Wait-and-See Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to Sap AUD/USD Rebound

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision may do little to alter the outlook for AUD/USD as the central bank sticks to a wait-and-see approach.

Oil Price Forecast: Bullish Behavior to Persist as Crude Clears July High

Oil may continue to trade to fresh 2018 highs as crude prices break out of a narrow range and carve a series higher highs & lows.

EURUSD Dips To Finish Elliott Wave Correction?

EURUSD tests recent lows near 1.1550. We anticipate support forming nearby for a rally to last for the next several weeks.

A NAFTA Deal Sends CAD Souring, USD Less Jubilant

After months of negotiations, the United States, Canada, and Mexico finally reached an agreement on NAFTA. The agreement materialized on the eve of the October 1st deadline.


USD/JPY Climbs to 11-Month Highs as Weekly Short Positions Swell 32%

Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.


Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: Trading the USD/CAD Breakdown

Canadian Dollar is on the offensive with USD/CAD breaking below 2018 up-trend support early in the week. These are the targets & invalidation levels that matter from here.



USD Strengthened Despite ISM Manufacturing Miss

One of the more market-moving economic releases crossed the wires Monday, slightly below expectations. Still, the US Dollar pressed higher as some trade fears were soothed.


Strategy Webinar: US Dollar Trade Setups into the Monthly / 4Q Open

Webinar highlighting featured setups we’re tracking into the start of the month. Here are the updated targets & invalidation levels that matter on the USD Majors.

USD/JPY: November High on Radar as Bullish Momentum Gathers Pace

USD/JPY stands at risk of making a run at the November 2017-high (114.74) as the bullish momentum appears to be gathering pace.



CAD Soars on New NAFTA Deal, GBP Leaps on Brexit Report - US Market Open

CAD strengthened to a 4-month high vs. USD after the US/Canada reach NAFTA deal. GBP bid on fresh Brexit reports. However, Tory Conference presents risk.

UK Week Ahead: Conservative Conference and Brexit Updates | Webinar

The annual Conservative Party Conference will throw more light on the UK’s Brexit policy, and the EU will be watching with great interest.

Weekly CoT Update for USD/JPY, Crude Oil & Other Major Contracts

There was a bit of a shuffle in the JPY contract; crude oil longs have been right, but could that soon change with long-term resistance ahead?



USD Buying on Fed Balance Sheet Unwind Amid 2nd Largest Net Negative Liquidity Impact

USD to potentially receive a bid in short term as the Fed’s balance sheet unwind leads to $19bln negative impact on USD liquidity.



Bullish CADJPY - Solid Technical Support ** Raising Target ** 

Solid technical and fundamental support for bullish CADJPY set-up



GBPUSD Could Drop on Tory Party Conference, PMI firms

UK Manufacturing PMI saw a surprise boost in September, putting an end to 3-months of slowing growth. However, focus is on the Tory party conference with PM May to speak on Wednesday.



EURUSD Sell-Off Continues on Italian Budget Concerns, USD Strength

EURUSD remains under selling pressure and is looking to make a fresh two-week low as US dollar strength and Italian budget woes continue to drive the move.

ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...