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Monday, 29 October 2018

UK Week Ahead: Brexit and the Bank of England | Webinar

UK asset traders will have the Autumn Budget (Monday) and the latest BoE monetary policy release (Thursday) to focus on. Both however remain under the spell of Brexit.

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CoT Update: Crude Oil Speculative Long Positioning to Keep Shrinking

Last week, large speculators continued to sell as crude oil weakened, and with the techs turning broadly negative this is likely to continue.

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USD Outperformance on Merkel Exit, Fed QT and Month-End Rebalancing

Short term drivers may see the USD supported over the week. German political uncertainty on the rise as Merkel is set to step down. Fed Balance sheet unwind and month-end rebalancing to spur USD buying.

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EURUSD Struggling to Stay Above 1.1400, Sentiment Negative

EURUSD currently changing hands just above 1.1400 but with little momentum to the upside. The Italian budget debate continues to weigh, along with renewed German political fears.

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Yen, US Dollar May Rise as Commodity Currencies Fall with Stocks

The Yen and US Dollar may rise while commodity bloc currencies fall with stocks amid another wave of selling across the risky asset spectrum.

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Sunday, 28 October 2018

Asia Stocks Mixed As Global Politics Eyed, USD Keeps Risk-Off Bid

It was a rather directionless start to the week overall for Asia Pacific equity. German and Brazilian politics were to the fore, with established orders pressured in both

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Malaysian Ringgit, Emerging Markets at Risk to China PMI, USD Gain

The Malaysian Ringgit may be at risk to the 2019 government budget as emerging markets are vulnerable to weaker Chinese Manufacturing PMI. More declines in stocks may send USD higher.

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Brazilian Real Gains On Bolsaro Win, Huge Challenges Ahead

The victory of far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil’s Presidential vote was widely expected and the Real has gained only modestly since

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Crude Oil Price Chart Hints at Major Bearish Trend Reversal

Crude oil prices appear to have established a major top having broken a 16-month uptrend. Gold prices may fall if US PCE inflation data tops forecasts.

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AUD May Fall with Nikkei, Euro at Risk. Markets Eye Brazil Election

Emerging markets and USD/BRL eye the Brazilian election results as Euro prices are vulnerable after the S&P Italian outlook downgrade. AUD may fall as Asia stocks follow S&P 500 lower.

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Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Risk Aversion Threatens to Define October with Capital and FX Markets on Edge

A notable sense of fear spread through the financial system this past week. Where concern could be attributed to certain asset classes or a fleeting swoon previously, there was little denying the storm brewing through Friday. Now, as stability hangs in the balance, the masses are recognizing the long list of threats we have accumulated these past months.

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Weekly Technical Forecast: Equities Suffer Key Technical Breaks, Dollar Uncertain of Its Role, Volatility Rising

Volatility was the technical hallmark of the past week. The US equity indices were undoubtedly offering up the most dramatic charts with critical breaks on fast-paced retreats. Yet, the implications of a systemic shift in conviction would not leave many corners of the market untouched.

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Global Equity Rout to Persist with eyes on BoE, Italy and Brexi

Another week of volatility as equity markets continue its descent. The deteriorating risk sentiment looks set to persist as defensive stocks continue to outperform cyclical stocks.

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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook: Breakout at Initial Resistance Targets

A four-week rally has gold testing a critical resistance zone into the monthly close. Here are the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.

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Euro Forecast: After ECB, Downside in Focus as Italian Issues Fester

A dovish tilt by President Mario Draghi at the October European Central Bank meeting pulled the rug on the Euro at the end of the week, paving the way for more downside ahead.

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