First Quarter 2019 Fundamental Forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro, Oil, Equities, and More

The fourth quarter and 2018 are now in the books, and the ongoingresurgence of market volatility and uncertainty around key thematic influences are set to carry into 2019.


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Equities Q1 Technical Forecast: Stocks May Rebound But Any Rally Not Expected to Last

Last quarter, the scene for stocks got progressively uglier, highlighted by an unusually weak December.


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US Dollar Q1 Technical Forecast: Fading Excitement Leads to Range as Bulls Shy Away from 98.00

The door could open to a deeper potential pullback in the US Dollar considering the currency's rangebound environment over the secondhalf of Q4.


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British Pound Q1 Technical Forecast: GBP/USD Shows Little Sign of Relief from Bearish Pressure

Losses persisted in the fourth quarter as Brexit/Political uncertainty showed little signs of abating, which in turn saw GBPUSD fail to maintain a foothold above the 1.3000 handle.


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Euro Q1 Technical Forecast: Despite Year-End Losses, Near-term Gains Not Out of the Question

EUR may experience some near-term strength against USD, CHF, and GBP but may underperform against JPY.


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Gold Q1 Technical Forecast: Pullback to Offer Opportunity in Early 2019

The recovery in Gold prices continued in the fourth quarter of 2018 after rebounding off confluence support near 1171 back in August.


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Oil Q1 Technical Forecast: WTI Crude Price Range at Best, Bear Breakdown at Worst

The worsening fundamental picture aligns with the massive price breakdown in crude that was witnessed in Q4.


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Japanese Yen Q1 Technical Forecast: Why USD/JPY Prices Might Fall in Q1 2019

Buyers of the Japanese Yen did their job in averting a major selloff in the currency during the final quarter of 2018.


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Equities Q1 Fundamental Forecast: Global Stocks Still Vulnerable After Brutal Selloff

A toxic mix of slowing economic growth, an ongoing trade war between the US and China, as well as political instability in Europe poisoned risk appetite across the equity space.


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US Dollar Q1 Fundamental Forecast: USD Buffeted by Market Volatility, Fed, Politics

The fundamental backdrop looks exceptionally tumultuous with several conflicting themes and complications making it difficult for the market to establish a prevailing trend.


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Pound Sterling Q1 Fundamental Forecast: GBP Rudderless on Brexit Permutations

It remains to be seen if a Brexit deal is confirmed, but the risks of a sharply lower British Pound may be slowly receding.


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Euro Q1 Fundamental Forecast: Missed Window of Opportunity at End of 2018 Portends Weak Start to 2019

For the Euro, being in a situation where political risks are cropping up while growth and inflation expectations are going down does not bode well for the future.


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Gold Q1 Fundamental Forecast: Price Likely to Continue 2018 Downtrend

Although Gold rallied amid rapid selloffs in equities in October and November, these were only minor recoveries.


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Oil Q1 Fundamental Forecast: Crude to Continue Sliding with Flush Demand and Waning Supply

Despite an incredibly painful quarter for crude, the outlook remains bleak.


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Japanese Yen Q1 Forecast: Haven in a Very Uncertain World

2018 was a tumultuous year in financial markets. So it’s perhaps strange that the Japanese Yen should be ending it very close to where it started. And yet it is.


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USD/JPY Sentiment: Net-Long Reaches a 9-month High

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish.


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EUR/USD Weekly Price Outlook: Euro Trading Levels Heading into 2019

Euro has defended 1.13 for the past six-weeks with price now testing monthly range highs. Here are the levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart into the year-end.


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USD/JPY Initiates Bearish Series Even as Bearish Momentum Abates

Recent price action keeps the downside targets on the radar for USD/JPY ahead of the NFP report as the exchange rate initiates a fresh series of lower highs & lows.


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Price Action Themes for FX and US Stocks Ahead of the 2019 Open

US equities have continued to swing in both directions ahead of year-end, but the rise in volatility across risk markets in Q4 is undeniable. This article looks at themes of interest for 2019.


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Grey Swans: Low Probability Events to watch for in 2019

“Grey swans” are events still unlikely to transpire, but if they were to, there would be profound consequences for financial markets.


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