Sunday, 17 February 2019

AUD/USD Bulls Unlikely To Get Much Help From RBA Governor

The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia will testify in Parliament this week, and recent history suggests he might make the going tough for AUD


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IDR Eyes Bank of Indonesia as USD May Appreciate on Soft EU Data

ASEAN currencies mostly fell this past week against the US Dollar. USD/IDR eyes the Bank of Indonesia with the threat that soft European economic data poses for risk trends.


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NOK, SEK Vulnerable as Europe Slows Down - FOMC Minutes in Focus

The Norwegian Krone and Swedish Krona may find it increasingly difficult to climb higher as the EU economy slows down, potentially dampening economic activity in the Nordics.


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Gold Prices Soar to Challenge Range Top as US Dollar Drops

Gold prices soared to challenge three-week range resistance, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar. A break higher would put a trend-defining top in the crosshairs.


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Nikkei 225 Eyes Key Resistance After Rally in S&P 500 as USD Fell

The US Dollar fell as a recovery in sentiment sapped its appeal as a haven asset. Asia stocks may rise, offering the Nikkei 225 a chance to confirm a close above critical resistance.


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Weekly Technical Forecast: Dollar, Equities, Crude and Gold All Extend Their Climb to Key Resistance

There was a broad advance in the run of speculative-leaning equities, commodities and currencies this past week. The pace was uneven, but the progress was registered nonetheless. Yet, only now does the real technical commitment meet its test with Dollar eying 97.75, Dow looking towards 27,000 and crude crossing 55.50.


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Weekly Fundamental Forecast:Trade Wars and Shutdown Fears Fade, Have We Entered a New Phase of Risk Appetite

Two of the most systemic fundamental threats facing the financial system have eased this past week in the avoidance of a second US government shutdown and the enthusiastic language being applied to the negotiations between the US and China on trade. Is this the foundation for a new phase of ‘risk on’?


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Technical Outlook: S&P 500, DAX

Following a weekly gain of over 2% the S&P 500 eyes key topside resistance. DAX sees notable bounce off trendline support.


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Dow Jones and DAX Hinged to Trade Wars, Potential Auto Tariffs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the German DAX will look to progress from the US-China trade talks and potential auto tariffs.


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Euro Forecast: Deteriorating Fundamentals Continue to Weigh on Price

The Euro continues to slide alongside deteriorating inflation expectations, which just hit their lowest level in more than two years this past week. Upcoming survey figures don’t look that optimistic.


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Saturday, 16 February 2019

EURUSD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro Flirting with Support Break

The Euro flip-flopped last week as it tested important support, with character in price action showing signs of changing it may be on the cusp of developing meaningful downside momentum.


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Gold Prices Stopped Short of Resuming Dominant Uptrend, Watch RSI

Gold prices attempted to resume the dominant uptrend, stopping short for resistance at 1323.60. Fading upside momentum may undermine upside progress ahead with support at 1302.97.


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Gold Bull-Flag Formation Continues to Unfold Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Developments coming out of the U.S. economy may continue to heighten the appeal of gold as the Federal Reserve further adjusts the forward-guidance for monetary policy.


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Dollar Within Reach of Two-Year High but Reversal Pressure High

The Dollar closed out another positive week, but progress towards the multi-year highs set in November and December is frustratingly slow for bulls. So, is it provocative breakout or comfortable reversal next week?


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US Dollar Needs Sentiment Consistency to Set Lasting Trend

The US Dollar seesawed last week, reflecting the competing influence of fundamental cross-currents. Risk sentiment consistency may be needed for a lasting trend.


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GBP Fundamental Forecast: Sterling Struggles as the Brexit Clock Ticks

The British Pound is just about keeping its poise against a range of currencies, especially a strong US dollar, with less than two weeks until PM May presents her Brexit deal to Parliament again.


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Friday, 15 February 2019

Crude Oil Forecast: The 2019 Crude Bull Market Has Arrived

There you have it! Crude has gained 21% year to date after the US noted new possible sanctions for Venezuela’s PDVSA and that Saudi could cut production further.


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Crude Oil Price Tied to Non-OPEC Supply Concerns, Lower Demand

Crude oil will take its price cues from the ongoing concerns on increased supply from non-OPEC sources.


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Are a Dow Return to Record, Dollar Breakout Possible This Week?

This past week closed with a strong charge higher for the Dow and crude while typical offsets in gold and the Dollar were also firm. This collective climb will not likely last forever, but what markets continue and which falter?


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My Top 3 Charts to Watch Over the Coming Week

With US indices climbing rapidly, emerging markets ready to close the speculative gap and other charts running or gearing up for a charge; what three charts are at the top of my watch list moving forward?


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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...