Tuesday, 7 May 2019

FTSE Technical Outlook – Breaking Trend Support, March Swing-high

The FTSE continues to probe trend support along with a prior high from March; a push off of it within the next couple days may start another leg higher.


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Gold Price Nudging Support, Silver Price Hitting Technical Resistance

Gold is looking at old horizontal support to fuel a short-term push higher, while silver continues to battle with 200-day ma resistance.


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COT Report: USD Bullish Bets at Multi-Year Highs, NZDUSD Net Shorts Doubled

Investors continued to increase their net long exposure in the USD index with the bullish positioning near $40bln. NZDUSD net shorts doubled, while GBP long positions are liquidated.


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Crude Oil Price - US President Trump Stoking Oil Volatility

Crude oil traders just need to watch US President Trumps Twitter feed to see the next market move, while technical traders will look at price action around a noted Fibonacci level.


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Monday, 6 May 2019

Gold Price Chart Hints at Downside Bias Amid Conflicted Trade

Gold prices are struggling to establish lasting direction as the US Dollar and benchmark bond yields diverge but the chart setup hints at a broadly bearish bias.


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Australian Dollar Leaps As RBA Leaves Rates On Hold, Eyes Labor Market

The Australian Dollar got a boost from the RBA's decision to leave interest rates alone. Markets had priced quite a high chance of a further reduction but the RBA is keeping a wary eye on the country's still-strong job creation.


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AUDUSD Outlook Hinges on RBA Meeting Amid Bets for 25bp Rate-Cut

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision may trigger increased volatility in the AUD/USD exchange rate amid speculation for a 25bp rate-cut.


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ASX 200 Retreats Modestly But Longer-Term Uptrends Still Endure

The ASX 200 is flirting with the bottom of its recent trading range, but it still looks quite comfortable close to it s highs for the year.


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AUD/USD Chart Analysis: Bounce Hinted Before RBA Rate Decision

The Australian Dollar has struggled to sustain downside progress after touching four-month lows. The chart setup now hints a bounce as the RBA rate decision looms ahead.


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AUD/USD Breakout Attempt Eyes RBA, US-China Trade War for Retest

The AUD/USD’s attempt to breakout lower eyes a potential RBA rate cut and renewed US-China trade war fears. Japanese markets are coming back online, Nikkei 225 may fall as Yen gains.


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S&P 500 Price Outlook: Trade War Threats Look to Derail Rebound

After gapping lower at the open, US equities staged an impressive comeback as the session progressed. Although off the highs, volatility – reflected by the VIX – remained heightened into the close.


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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: RBA & RBNZ Meetings; UK GDP; Canada Jobs; US Inflation

With the May Fed meeting and April US NFP report in the rearview mirror, attention turns away from the United States for most of the first full week of May.


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Top 5 Events: April US Inflation Report & EURUSD Price Forecast

The April US Consumer Price Index is due on Friday, May 10 at 12:30 GMT.


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Top 5 Events: April Canada Jobs Report & USDCAD Price Forecast

The April Canada jobs report (detailing the employment change and unemployment rate) is due on Friday, May 10 at 12:30 GMT.


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Currency Market Volatility Surges on Trump Tariffs, AUD Eyes RBA

Volatility struck forex markets when President Trump stated the US will increase tariffs on China as trade talks intensify. Meanwhile, AUD currency traders await a possible rate cut from the RBA.


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Top 5 Events: Q1’19 UK GDP & GBPUSD Price Forecast

The Q1’19 UK GDP report is due on Friday, May 10 at 08:30 GMT; consensus forecasts foresee a rebound in both quarterly and yearly growth rates.


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Top 5 Events: May RBNZ Meeting & NZDUSD Price Forecast

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday, May 8 at 02:00 GMT; rates markets are pricing in a 51% chance of a 25-bps rate cut.


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USDJPY: Traders Remaining Net-Long Suggests Price May Continue to Fall

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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S&P 500: Price Moved by 14.9% Since January 7

Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current US 500 price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.


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Bitcoin: 80.3% of Traders Are Net-Long

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Bitcoin-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...