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Sunday, 30 June 2019

Asian Stocks Applaud US-China Trade Truce, FX Not Quite So Sure

Asia Pacific stock markets made gains, led by China after the weekend’s better trade news out of Osaka. However, the economic data remain very weak.

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Gold Prices May Extend Drop from Chart Barrier as US Dollar Gains

Gold prices may continue lower after being dramatically rejected at chart resistance as the mood sours across global financial markets, boosting the US Dollar.

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NOK Eyes Crude Oil Prices, SEK Braces for Riksbank Decision

The Norwegian Krone and Swedish Krona will be on edge ahead of the Riksbank rate decision and crude oil related risks as the global growth outlook nauseates markets.

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Wilting AUD Slips Further As China Caixin PMi Misses Key 50 Level

AUD/USD was already fading as markets doubted the US-China trade truce's substance. News that Chinese manufacturing output contracted last month didn't help.

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Crude Oil Price Outlook Hinges on OPEC Meeting Following G20 Summit

The upcoming OPEC meeting may keep crude afloat even though the price of oil fails to extend the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week.

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AUD and Stocks Up on US-China Trade War Truce, But for How Long?

The AUD, NZD and equities rose early into Monday’s trading session after the G20 summit ended with a US-China trade war truce, though a gloomy fundamental outlook may undermine the rally.

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Yen May Sink as US-China Restart Trade Talks, Can Crude Oil Rise?

The Japanese Yen may weaken as markets digest US-China restarting trade talks after the G20 Summit. Will this offset crude oil price declines as EU cooled Iran supply disruption fears?

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Dollar, Gold, Equities 3Q Forecast Involves Reversal Threats, Destabilizing Themes

We are heading into the third quarter and second half of 2019 with markets poised for significant movement. That said, it isn't clear whether the systemic move will be a sustained charge for the likes of the Dollar, S&P 500 and gold or conversely a disruptive reversal. What is clear is that the market does not seem to fully appreciate the risk associated to the systemic fundamental risks being worked through or the volatility that they can spark throughout the financial system.

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Equities Q3 Forecast: Stock Markets Aim Higher Balancing Trade Wars and Monetary Policy

Global shares rebounded in the first quarter as dovish monetary policy was able to overcome global growth concerns and US-China trade war fears were reduced by the prospects of a deal.

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Saturday, 29 June 2019

British Pound Q3 Forecast: Sterling Fundamentals - Volatility Set to Rise as Brexit D-Day Nears

Sterling (GBP) is likely to become more volatile as the clock ticks down to the latest Brexit deadline - October 31st.

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Yen Supported by Two Huge Uncertainties; USDJPY Downtrend May Extend

The Japanese Yen has headed into a new calendar quarter on a high note, with its customary haven role underscoring demand which has brought USD/JPY down to its 2019 lows.

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US Dollar Q3 Forecast: Dollar Feeling Weight of Fed, GDP and Trade Wars

The US Dollar was heading into the second half of 2019 in an uncomfortable state of uncertainty and it seems the technical boundaries are starting to come under existential strain.

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Q3’19 Euro Forecast Sees Economic, Political Uncertainties Back on the Rise

Euro technical positioning looks inconclusive at the mid-year mark as political issues have been a slow burn in Europe over the past several months while the economic growth picture in Europe could be characterized as charitably-mild.�

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Friday, 28 June 2019

Dollar, Dow, Gold a Cross Roads of G-20, Holiday Trade, Pent Up Anxiety

Reversals and breakouts seem to be developing hand-in-hand across a variety of financial benchmarks. Will the G20, growth or NFPs set markets in motion or do we wait for a more decisive spark?

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Crude Oil Price: Will Global Growth Fears Overwhelm OPEC?

Crude oil price outlook over the third quarter looks set to be broadly overwhelmed by slowing global GDP growth, yet OPEC+ supply cuts and political risks pose upside risks.

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EURGBP Has Matched a Record Weekly Rally as Resistance Approaches, Now What?

There aren’t many opportunities in the market that are reliably divorced from complicated systemic matters like trade wars. EURGBP certainly avoids that them and it has a remarkable technical picture.

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