Monday, 1 July 2019

US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD Testing Support, USD/JPY Resistance

The US Dollar has posed a mild gap with a bounce to start Q3 trade, but are USD bears prepared to hibernate in the second half of the year?


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EUR/USD: Net-Short Positions increase by 14.1% from Last Week

Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias.


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USD Rises on Trade Truce, However, Fed Easing is Coming, Crude Oil Soars on OPEC - US Market Open

Brent and WTI crude futures are on the front foot begin the week, rising as much as 3% on trade truce and OPEC pledge. USD finds support, however, eyes on ISM.


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Dollar, Gold, Equities 3Q Forecast Involves Reversal Threats, Destabilizing Themes

We are heading into the third quarter and second half of 2019 with markets poised for significant movement. That said, it isn't clear whether the systemic move will be a sustained charge for the likes of the Dollar, S&P 500 and gold or conversely a disruptive reversal. What is clear is that the market does not seem to fully appreciate the risk associated to the systemic fundamental risks being worked through or the volatility that they can spark throughout the financial system.


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CAD Shorts Cut, USD Bulls Exit, GBP Outlook Remains Weak - COT Report

Weekly changes in G10 FX positioning sees CAD net shorts cut by $1.7bln, while USD bulls continue to head for the exit. Euro remains the largest short in the G10 complex.


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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/JPY Trading in a Sideways Pattern - 122.52 Remains Key

Today, EUR/JPY opened with an upwards gap however,it failed to maintain any gains. Here are the key technical levels that both buyers and sellers may need to consider.


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Eurozone unemployment at lowest level since 2008, EURUSD to watch US ISM data

EURUSD paired some of its losses in the start of the European session but better than expected Eurozone unemployment figures failed to push the pair higher as traders focus on US ISM data


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Gold Price, Crude Oil, Dollar & S&P 500 | Big-picture Technical Analysis

Looking at the 'macro-techs', there are some longer-term technical developments that could hold significant meaning in the second half of the year.


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EURUSD Braces for European Political Wrangling, US ISM Data

EURUSD will be on its toes as EU leaders continue to debate who will reign over key EU institutions at a time when the continent is plagued by political polarization and economic weakness.


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Sunday, 30 June 2019

Upbeat German Unemployment Report to Curb EURUSD Losses

Fresh data prints coming out of the Euro area may curb the recent decline in EURUSD as German Unemployment is expected to hold flat in June.


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Asian Stocks Applaud US-China Trade Truce, FX Not Quite So Sure

Asia Pacific stock markets made gains, led by China after the weekend’s better trade news out of Osaka. However, the economic data remain very weak.


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Gold Prices May Extend Drop from Chart Barrier as US Dollar Gains

Gold prices may continue lower after being dramatically rejected at chart resistance as the mood sours across global financial markets, boosting the US Dollar.


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NOK Eyes Crude Oil Prices, SEK Braces for Riksbank Decision

The Norwegian Krone and Swedish Krona will be on edge ahead of the Riksbank rate decision and crude oil related risks as the global growth outlook nauseates markets.


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Wilting AUD Slips Further As China Caixin PMi Misses Key 50 Level

AUD/USD was already fading as markets doubted the US-China trade truce's substance. News that Chinese manufacturing output contracted last month didn't help.


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Crude Oil Price Outlook Hinges on OPEC Meeting Following G20 Summit

The upcoming OPEC meeting may keep crude afloat even though the price of oil fails to extend the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week.


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AUD and Stocks Up on US-China Trade War Truce, But for How Long?

The AUD, NZD and equities rose early into Monday’s trading session after the G20 summit ended with a US-China trade war truce, though a gloomy fundamental outlook may undermine the rally.


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Yen May Sink as US-China Restart Trade Talks, Can Crude Oil Rise?

The Japanese Yen may weaken as markets digest US-China restarting trade talks after the G20 Summit. Will this offset crude oil price declines as EU cooled Iran supply disruption fears?


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Dollar, Gold, Equities 3Q Forecast Involves Reversal Threats, Destabilizing Themes

We are heading into the third quarter and second half of 2019 with markets poised for significant movement. That said, it isn't clear whether the systemic move will be a sustained charge for the likes of the Dollar, S&P 500 and gold or conversely a disruptive reversal. What is clear is that the market does not seem to fully appreciate the risk associated to the systemic fundamental risks being worked through or the volatility that they can spark throughout the financial system.


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Equities Q3 Forecast: Stock Markets Aim Higher Balancing Trade Wars and Monetary Policy

Global shares rebounded in the first quarter as dovish monetary policy was able to overcome global growth concerns and US-China trade war fears were reduced by the prospects of a deal.


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Saturday, 29 June 2019

British Pound Q3 Forecast: Sterling Fundamentals - Volatility Set to Rise as Brexit D-Day Nears

Sterling (GBP) is likely to become more volatile as the clock ticks down to the latest Brexit deadline - October 31st.


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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...