Chinese industrial firms posted a seventh consecutive month of profit growth this week which may support copper and iron ore prices into the new year. AUD/USD rose above trendline support, nearing ...
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Sunday, 27 December 2020
S&P 500, Hang Seng Weekly Open: Alibaba Probe Weighs on Sentiment
Stock markets are set to open mildly higher on stimulus and vaccine hopes in Asia-Pacific trade. Chinese tech stocks tumbled after Beijing initiated an antitrust probe into Alibaba, weighing on the...
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Copper 1Q Forecast: May Rise Further as Post-Covid Economic Outlook Clears
Copper may continue to rise into fresh multi-year highs as fundamental drivers appear set to strengthen in 2021.
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CNH 1Q Forecast: Vaccines and Biden’s Presidency May Threaten Yuan’s “One Way” Trajectory
A potential rebound in the US Dollar as a result of stronger fundamentals and inflation overshoot may lead to a reversal of EM currencies’ bullish trend. More importantly, a possible reigniting of ...
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MXN 1Q Forecast: Mexican Peso Outlook - USD/MXN Bearish in 2021 as Recovery Persists
The Mexican Peso looks positioned for a prolonged advance against the US Dollar in 2021. This could present bearish USD/MXN trading opportunities with the Mexican Peso possessing potential to exten...
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JPY 1Q Forecast: 2021 Could be the Year JPY Wakes Up
The place to be next year could be JPY, as the charts become increasingly “dead” and coiled up. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are a couple of charts that hint at possibly making big moves.
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AUD 1Q Forecasts: Key Market Trends to Watch for in 2021 FX Market - Long AUD/USD and AUD/JPY
The Australian Dollar may continue to outperform against its US counterpart as the continuation pattern gains traction ahead of 2021. The improvement in investor confidence has also spurred a recov...
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AUD, NZD 1Q Forecasts: Commodity Currency Breakout in 2021? Cyclical Upturn Ahead for AUD & NZD
2021 could prove to be the start of a commodity-currency bull market, as long-term price analysis suggests a cyclical shift may be afoot for AUD, NZD against the haven-linked USD.
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CAD/JPY 1Q Forecast: Long CAD/JPY - Time to Start Mending the Global Economy
A long CAD/JPY trade hopefully benefits from the nascent economic recovery. I’m looking for both sides of the FX-pair to perform with the Canadian dollar appreciating alongside an uplift in the pri...
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Saturday, 26 December 2020
EUR/USD 1Q Forecast: US Dollar May Rebound vs. Euro as Fed, ECB Policies Diverge
One major central bank unlikely to pace the Fed is the ECB. A yawning gap between US and Eurozone breakeven rates underscores this, suggesting that the Euro may turn lower as the global monetary po...
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JPY 1Q Forecasts: Range USD/JPY 7-Year Wedge, Bullish GBP/JPY Post-Brexit Break
Looking into 2021, I’m interested in the gravity of USD/JPY’s range and the contrast for multiple scenarios to a GBP/JPY climb.
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USD/CAD 1Q Forecast: Short USD/CAD Amid a Recovering Global Economy and Dovish Fed
As economies continued to regain their footing, the US Dollar lost much of its luster as the Federal Reserve looks to stand firm on its accommodative policy stance into 2023. On the other hand, the...
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NZD/USD 1Q Forecast: Long NZD/USD as RBNZ Rhetoric Improves
The New Zealand Dollar has been the best performing currency towards the end of the year, appreciating 6.8% against the US Dollar in November alone. I expect this appreciation to continue into the ...
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1Q Forecasts: Vaccines Mean Hope Springs Eternal - Long MXN/JPY, Long Copper (XCU/USD), Long RUT & NDX
In this low interest rate world with pent up aggregate demand and significant slack in the world’s major economies, there is ample room for growth. If growth is the story of 2021, the underperforme...
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USD 1Q Forecast: US Dollar Breaks Multi-year Trend Support – Looking for a Low
One of the most significant technical reactions this past year was in the US Dollar Index.
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USD/SGD 1Q Forecast: US Dollar at Risk to Singapore Dollar Amid Hunt for Yield in Emerging Markets
The Singapore Dollar may continue its advance against the US Dollar in 2021 as capital keeps flowing into Emerging Markets.
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CAD/CHF 1Q Forecast: Long CAD/CHF – A Combination of Risk Trends and Positioning
As the global economic outlook improves with pent up demand supporting growth, risks are tilted to the upside for oil prices, which in turn is likely to keep the Canadian Dollar afloat, particularl...
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GBP/NZD 1Q Forecast: Long GBP/NZD as Competing Sterling and Kiwi Climb Shifts in 2021
On the NZD side, the good news of a potential global economic revival has been largely priced in to the markets already. On the GBP side, there is scope for the UK economy to perform better than wi...
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USD/JPY 1Q Forecast: Can the BoJ Keep Up With the Breakneck Pace of the FOMC?
With Shinzo Abe now no longer leading Japan, can Abenomic-fueled Yen losses remain?
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Friday, 25 December 2020
Top Trading Lessons: Take Extra Caution Before Joining Popular Trades
The first quarter of 2020 turned traders on their heads as Covid-19 ripped through the global economy. Swift action from the Federal Reserve and other central banks backstopped the global financial...
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Posts (Atom)
ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference
The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...
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Fundamentals can seem overwhelming, but identifying and isolating the key driver behind a currnecy or capital can help refine our evaluation...
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The US Dollar is firmer ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Expectations is for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25bps to 2.00-2....