A sustained reflation trade could place the Dow in a league of its own. If risk aversion takes root, valuation metrics in the Dow Jones are far more reasonable than elsewhere.
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Saturday, 3 April 2021
GBP Q2 2021 Fundamental Forecast
The British Pound rallied towards GBP/USD 1.4200, slightly higher than our expectations, before dropping back to 1.3700.
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USD/CHF Amid Yield Differentials: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
The Franc’s struggle is likely due to rising bond yields in the United States relative to Switzerland, and may continue throughout the second quarter as the White House sets course to deliver infra...
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EUR Q2 2021 Technical Forecast
The Euro has sold off in dramatic fashion against the US Dollar, with EUR/USD aiming to complete its third consecutive monthly loss.
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Short AUD/USD, AUD/JPY: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
With a head-and-shoulders formation and the establishment of a downward trend in RSI, traders should be mindful.
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USD Recovery and Resistance Hurdles: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
Look for topside exhaustion early in the quarter to give way to larger pullback - losses should be limited by 91 IF price is indeed heading higher.
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Equities Q2 2021 Technical Forecast
The S&P 500 index is riding an ascending trend higher and may attempt to challenge a psychological resistance level at 4,000 (the 100% Fibonacci extension of the past year’s first phase rally).
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USD/JPY Breakout Potential: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
USD/JPY is on my radar as a breakout candidate after several years of narrowing price action. The price action in Q1 was some of the best we’ve seen in some time, but still leaves USD/JPY in the co...
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Oil Q2 2021 Fundamental Forecast
The strong bid beneath crude oil broadly tracked market optimism surrounding covid vaccine developments, massive fiscal stimulus packages, and improved outlook for global GDP growth.
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Short EUR/NOK: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
A stronger Krone will weigh down on inflation and if price pressures continue to run hot, a rate hike may be put in place sooner rather than later. On the other side, the Euro is struggling and is ...
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Friday, 2 April 2021
Short AUD/CAD: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
Heading into Q2, I am bearish on AUD/CAD on US economic outperformance, BoC tapering and favourable positioning.
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JPY Q2 2021 Technical Forecast
The technical outlook for the haven-associated Japanese Yen remains overtly bearish, after the funding currency toppled over 5.5% on average against its major counterparts in the first quarter of 2...
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USD/CNH as Reflation Hopes Build: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
While USD/CNH has rebounded from a two-and-half year low, the Federal Reserve’s dovish-tilted policy guidance and the PBOC’s neutral stance suggest that the currency pair may lack significant upsid...
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AUD Q2 2021 Fundamental Forecast
The Australian Dollar appreciated against its US counterpart during the first quarter of 2021 with AUD/USD briefly trading above the 0.8000 handle in February.
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Copper Bullish Continuation: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
Copper has been supported by unprecedented monetary policy, ultra-low interest rates and more importantly, low or negative real yields. It now looks to benefit from a strong recovery in output.
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Gold Q2 2021 Technical Forecast
Gold has been declining since August 2020, and has yet to show any real signs of life.
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EUR/CAD Weakness: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
EUR/CAD has fallen a whopping 700-pips so far this year, succumbing to a massive wave of selling pressure on the back of Euro weakness and Canadian Dollar outperformance.
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USD Q2 2021 Fundamental Forecast
Through the opening quarter of 2021, there were significant changes in focus from an incredible charge in retail appetite to anticipation for reopening economies after mass vaccinations to burgeoni...
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EUR/JPY Reversal Potential: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities
A carry trade matters little if the principle portion of the trade is losing faster than the swap might accrue. In a pair like EUR/JPY, that motivation for carry is similarly low; and any questions...
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GBP Q2 2021 Technical Forecast
As Q1 comes to a close, much of the early quarter gains in GBP/USD have been largely retraced after peaking at 1.4235.
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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference
The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...
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Fundamentals can seem overwhelming, but identifying and isolating the key driver behind a currnecy or capital can help refine our evaluation...
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The US Dollar is firmer ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Expectations is for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25bps to 2.00-2....