Monday, 5 April 2021

Strong Beat in March ISM Services PMI Sends Index To Record High

The ISM Services Report for March hit a new pandemic high at 63.7 versus a forecast of 59.0, marking a strong month for the services sector.

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Oil Price Susceptible to Rise in US Output Following OPEC JMMC Meeting

A further rise in US crude output may drag on the price of oil as OPEC and its allies are on track to gradually reverse the production cuts in response to COVID-19.

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Trouble for EUR/CAD, EUR/NOK: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities

The Euro has lost a significant amount of ground against the commodity-sensitive Norwegian Krone and Canadian Dollar in the first quarter of 2021. These losses appear to stem from the divergence in...

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Equities Q2 2021 Fundamental Forecast

The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 enjoyed an encouraging start to the year before stumbling into the second quarter.

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Short EUR/JPY - Q2 Top Trading Opportunities

Putting together a weak Euro with a stronger Yen, there is plenty of scope for EUR/JPY to weaken if you think the recovery will be rather bumpier than current market pricing implies.

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Sunday, 4 April 2021

Gold, Crude Oil Price Outlook: Market Digests Strong NFP and Higher Yields

Gold prices retreated on Monday as a robust US nonfarm payrolls report boosted longer-dated Treasury yields. Crude oil prices slid modestly as Saudi Arabia raised prices for oil exports to Asia.

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Dow to Outperform vs. Nasdaq if Inflation Fears Force Fed Rethink

The Dow Jones Industrial Average of blue-chip stocks is likely to outperform the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 if worries about inflation force the Fed to trim stimulus sooner than expected.

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Natural Gas Outlook: Colder Weather, Technical Support to Guide Prices Higher?

Natural gas moved lower in March following an upbeat February performance. Now, between two key moving averages, a colder weather outlook in the US may help guide prices higher.

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How to Manage the Emotions of Trading

Controlling emotions while trading can prove to be the difference between success and failure.

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Why a Rise in Retail Trading May Signal Another Mania

The Fed and government’s support has altered how Americans think of saving versus investing. This is acting to kindle ‘animal spirits,’ in every sense of the Keynesian fashion.

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Dow Jones, APAC Stocks Week Ahead: Markets May Extends Higher on Strong NFP

Wall Street equity futures kicked off the week on strong footing, as the US nonfarm payrolls data beat market expectations by a wide margin. Asia Pacific equities look set to ride this tailwind and...

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Oil Q2 2021 Technical Forecast

After an impressive start to 2021, the oil forecast for the second quarter of the year is lacking an overly optimistic tone given a weaker picture for demand and stronger growth in rival supply, as...

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Short EUR/AUD: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities

The Australian economy’s recovery has outperformed the EU’s own post-pandemic revival. This is likely to continue. The economic disparity may even accelerate if the EU continues to fumble its vacci...

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JPY Q2 2021 Fundamental Forecast

As anticipated, the Japanese Yen started off the new year on a sour note.

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USD/CHF Primed for Topside: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities

Even if the Fed does not hike rates anytime soon, a disparity will exist in the rate policy between the two economies, and this can continue to support the topside of USD/CHF.

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Short EUR/MXN: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities

I’m short EUR/MXN in the second quarter, given the Euro’s resilience against EM currencies in the last 6 months, despite risk-on appetite bringing them back from March 2020 lows.

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AUD Q2 2021 Technical Forecast

Heading into 2021, our ‘bottom line’ on the Aussie technicals noted, “the Australian Dollar price rally has matured with an advance of more than 37% off the yearly lows risking topside exhaustion i...

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Short USD/JPY, Long USD/CNH: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities

If risk aversion sidles in, it would likely see USD/JPY decline. After a pandemic-based hiatus, the US and China seem to be picking back up their multi-faceted dispute which steers back to economic...

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Saturday, 3 April 2021

Gold Q2 2021 Fundamental Forecast

The Biden administration’s first stimulus package brought forth a jump in both nominal US Treasury yields and inflation expectations, the net-result of which was rising real US yields.

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ZAR Strength May Soon Dissipate: Q2 Top Trading Opportunities

With markets starting to digest the U.S. stimulus package as well as Europe’s PEPP program, it may be time for these two major currencies to begin to recover against the ZAR.

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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...