The transition from the first half to the second half of 2021 has seen some remarkable shifts in market focus and belief. Provocative Dollar technicals and anticipation for normalizing monetary pol...
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Sunday, 4 July 2021
Long USD/ZAR: South African Rand May be Losing Steam: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
After a strong 2021, the rand could be in for a tough time as U.S. taper talk and interest rates adjustments become more relevant. Could Q3 be the turning point for USD/ZAR?
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GBP/JPY May Fall as the Fed Feeds Yen Real Yield Advantage: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
The Yen may rise against the British Pound as policy pivot from the US Federal Reserve boosts real yield spreads in favor of the Japanese currency.
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Saturday, 3 July 2021
Long Nasdaq 100 on Return to Growth Stocks: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
The Nasdaq 100 found itself in an unusual position in the first five months of the year as it lagged behind its industrial counterpart the Dow Jones amid the ongoing reflation trade.
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British Pound Q3 Fundamental Forecast
The UK economic recovery continues, aide by a successful vaccination program, all eyes are now on data releases
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AUD/USD at Risk Amid Less-Dovish Fed, PBOC Normalization, Australia-China Tensions: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
The Australian Dollar may struggle in the third quarter amid a combination of a less-dovish Federal Reserve and potentially consequential knock-on economic impacts from China.
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Australian Dollar Correction Brewing: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
AUD/USD trades to a fresh 2021 low (0.7477) in June as Federal Reserve officials project two rate hikes for 2023, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the V-shape recovery from 2020 as t...
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Yen Q3 Fundamental Forecast: Road Ahead Remains Tough
The road ahead for the Japanese Yen in the third quarter remains tough, with USD/JPY perhaps looking to rise amid a less-dovish Federal Reserve amid persistent inflationary pressures.
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Crude Oil Gains to Persist; Stocks to Stay on Their Rocket: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
Despite some twists and turns, the first half of the year was indeed about the growth story, and heading into 3Q’21, it appears that the tune will remain the same.
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US Dollar Recovery Back at Make-or-Break Resistance – Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
Into the start of Q2 our DXY outlook concluded that, "Bottom line: looking for topside exhaustion early in the quarter to give way to larger pullback." We got it!
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Long GBP/JPY: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
GBP/JPY is up around 30 big figures from the spike low made in mid-March 2020 with the daily chart showing a series of higher highs and higher lows printed along the way.
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EUR Q3 Fundamental Forecast: ECB Review May Lead to Euro Weakness
As predicted at the end of March in the second quarter forecast, EUR/USD rallied strongly in Q2, rising from a low of 1.1704 on March 31 to a high of 1.2266 on May 25 before dropping back.
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Friday, 2 July 2021
AUD/CAD May Be a Catch-Up Trade in Q3: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
Coming in to Q2 my trade of short AUD/CAD had been predicated on US exceptionalism and the growing divergence between the BoC and RBA.
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Nasdaq 100 May Outperform the Dow Jones as Treasury Yield Curve Flattens: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
A hawkish shift in the Fed’s monetary policy stance may mark another period of outperformance in the Nasdaq 100 index versus the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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AUD Q3 Fundamental Forecast: Australian Dollar Outlook Mired by Dovish RBA Forward Guidance
The Australia Dollar faced headwinds throughout the second quarter of 2021 as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) offered a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy, with AUD/USD trading to a fr...
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Reinvigorated Copper Trade - Fundamentals and Techs Remain Supportive: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
Copper has been on a massive bull run ever since the March 2020 low and looks set to continue due to supportive technical and fundamental factors despite the recent sell-off.
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USD/JPY to Try to Move Higher out of Macro Wedge: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
USD/JPY had been in a narrowing range the past few years, and on that was a chart that had been of interest for some time for the very reason that it hadn't been of much interest to the broader mar...
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Gold, Silver Price Pullback Could Provide Attractive Opportunities in Q3
If the Fed decides to drag its feet for kicking off the taper timeline, markets could unwind rate hike bets, and in turn, this may provide attractive opportunities for traders to go long gold and s...
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Dollar 3Q Forecast: Fed's Efforts to Temper Volatility Could Trip Up Greenback
The US Dollar ended the first half of this year with a smart rally and references to Fed rate expectations were frequently accompanying performance in the headlines. What does the Dollar face funda...
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CAD/JPY Bullish Breakout Potential Near Five-Year-Highs: Q3 Top Trading Opportunities
Central banks in Canada and Japan appear to be on divergent paths, and the CAD/JPY pair is very near a key point on the chart for bullish breakouts.
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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference
The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...
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Fundamentals can seem overwhelming, but identifying and isolating the key driver behind a currnecy or capital can help refine our evaluation...
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The US Dollar is firmer ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Expectations is for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25bps to 2.00-2....