Wednesday, 5 October 2022

Euro Slides as US Dollar Regains the Upper Hand on a Consistently Hawkish Fed

The Euro backed away from parity again after US Dollar ascendency got back on track after the Federal Reserve got their message across loud and clear. Where to for EUR/USD?

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Crude Oil Prices Eye Best Week Since Ukraine Was Invaded, OPEC+ Cuts Output Before NFPs

Crude oil prices are heading for the best week since Russia Invaded Ukraine. OPEC+ output cuts and an unexpected drop in US inventories boosted WTI on Wednesday before NFPs on Friday.

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AUD/USD Chart Points to More Losses as APAC Markets Eye Australian Trade Data

The Australian Dollar looks primed to fall against the US Dollar on technical and fundamental grounds. AUD/USD is in focus as APAC traders eye Australia’s trade data due out today.

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Gold Performance in Midterm Election Years – There’s a Bigger Trend Elsewhere

Any direct connection between gold prices and midterm elections may be spurious, at best.

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Will the 2022 Stock Market’s Performance Influence the US Midterm Elections?

The performance of US equity markets during a midterm election year does not appear to influence the outcome at the polls, based on data going back to 1946.

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British Pound (GBP/USD) Forecast: PM Truss in Focus Ahead of UK and U.S. Services PMI’s

Key services data for the UK and U.S. dominates the economic calendar while PM Liz Truss conference speech aims to restore confidence within her party. Cable tests 1.15.

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Tuesday, 4 October 2022

Dollar Slide Aligns to Rebound in Risk Trends but What About Rates and Recession Forecasts?

Risk appetite has extended its exceptional start to October and the fourth quarter with the S&P 500 earning its biggest two-day rally since April of 2020. Given the lack of tangible fundamental support behind this move, I remain dubious of its consistency. That said, the Dollar’s retreat from two-decade highs may offer valuable tracking.

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Crude Oil Price Climbs Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting and a Sunny Outlook. Where to for WTI?

Crude oil continues to nudge higher in anticipation of flagged OPEC+ production cuts and the positive mood for markets more broadly. If supply is constrained will WTI go higher?

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New Zealand Dollar Surges Against US Dollar, Australian Dollar After RBNZ Delivers 50-Basis Point Rate Hike

The New Zealand Dollar rose in immediate reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking its official cash rate (OCR) by 50-basis points, as expected.

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Gold Price Climbs Above 50-Day SMA to Approach September High

The price of gold is on the cusp of testing the September high ($1735) as it trades above the 50-Day SMA ($1724).

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APAC Markets Eye RBNZ as AUD Struggles Despite a Softer US Dollar

The Australian Dollar is struggling despite a risk-on tone across markets ahead of today’s rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Elsewhere, oil prices are climbing as OPEC meets.

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USD/CAD Rate Pulls Back to Generate RSI Sell Signal

USD/CAD may face a larger pullback over the coming days as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back from overbought territory to indicate a textbook sell signal.

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Monday, 3 October 2022

Gold Prices May Rise Short-Term After Soft US ISM Data Crushed the US Dollar

Gold prices rallied the most in months after soft US ISM Manufacturing PMI cooled Fed rate hike bets. A softer US Dollar may support XAU/USD in the near term. What about beyond?

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Bitcoin Aims at 20,000 After Risk-On Move Weighs on US Dollar

Bitcoin prices are targeting the 20,000 psychological level after an overnight risk-on move that weighed on the US Dollar and supported equity indexes. That move may extendi into today’s APAC trading.

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AUD/USD Rate Vulnerable to Dovish RBA Rate Hike

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision may do little to shore up AUD/USD as the central bank shows little interest in carrying out a restrictive policy.

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Market Recap: US Equity Indices Bounce to Begin Q4

Major U.S. stock indices rally as US Treasury yields and USD fall after a weaker-than-expected PMI figure suggests that rising interest rates have cooled demand for goods

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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: RBA Rate Decision; RBNZ Rate Decision; US ISM Services; Canada Jobs Report; US NFP

The middle of September has inflation data and labor markets in focus.

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Gold Performance in Midterm Election Years – There’s a Bigger Trend Elsewhere

Any direct connection between gold prices and midterm elections may be spurious, at best.

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British Pound Soars as Truss Cans Tax Cut Plan. Will GBP/USD Extend its Recovery?

Sterling rose on Monday as the market cautiously welcomed the UK government's decision to scrap a tax cut plan that would have weakened the country's fiscal accounts.

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S&P 500 Surges to Start Q4 –Do You Tail or Will it Fail?

Equities roar to life following a tough Q3 and poor end to September.

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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...