Monday, 20 February 2023

Gold Prices (XAU/USD) Nudge Higher But Bigger Tests Lie Ahead

The precious metal has regained the $1840 level but with the US closed and with heavyweight data and event risk looming this week, volatility is likely in the coming days

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USD/JPY Update: Signs of Exhaustion, Acceptance Above 134.50 Needed for Bullish Rally to Continue.

USD/JPY has stalled following last week’s 300-pip rally. Retracement is looking more likely before further upside.

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GBP Price Forecast: Pound Flat Against Peers, Dovish Pressure on BoE Mounting

EUR/GBP & GBP/USD price action shows minimal changes to last week’s close as markets prepare for a slew of UK, US and eurozone fundamental data throughout the week.

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Sunday, 19 February 2023

US Dollar Holds Gains as Markets Weigh Fed Moves. Will Yields Boost USD?

The US Dollar has solidified recent gains on a quiet start to the week with a US holiday giving the market time to consider the Fed’s rate path compared to other central banks.

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Japanese Yen Dips as Treasury Yields Climb Ahead of Ueda Testimony. Higher USD/JPY?

The Japanese Yen has lost ground against the US Dollar as the threat of a re-acceleration of Fed rate hikes lifted Treasury yields and ahead of the nominee for BoJ Governor address.

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Markets Week Ahead: US Dollar, Gold, Dow Jones, FOMC Minutes, PCE, NZD/USD, RBNZ

The US Dollar outperformed as stronger CPI data bolsters hawkish Fed bets last week. Gold prices fell. Ahead, all eyes are on FOMC minutes, PCE data and another RBNZ rate hike. What else is due?

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Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: XAU/USD Tentative Awaiting Fundamental Catalyst

Gold prices look to upcoming fundamental data next week while XAU/USD holds above 1830 for now.

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Saturday, 18 February 2023

Oil Forecast: Crude Prices Sink on Rising Rates & China’s Slow Demand Recovery

Oil prices slumped this week as rising rates raised fears of an economic downturn. China’s slow fuel demand recovery following the reopening of its economy also weighed on sentiment.

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Canadian Dollar Outlook: Canada’s CPI Eyed as USD/CAD Challenges Key Resistance

Canada’s January inflation report and broad market sentiment following the hawkish repricing of the Fed’s policy outlook will be key catalyst for USD/CAD in the coming days.

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Friday, 17 February 2023

Dollar Breakout and S&P 500 Breakdown Don’t Project Conviction Into Next Week

The technical levels were clear for the US-based S&P 500 and Dollar through the end of last week, and both tentatively earned a ‘break’ Friday. That said, follow through was clearly under scrutiny by the time liquidity drained. Have we already cleared the sentiment hurdle or do we need a more robust push next week for trends?

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What Past Global Recessions Can Teach Us About the Next One

The second global economic downturn in a decade could be the dark legacy of 2023. What can we learn about what’s to come from past recessions?

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Thursday, 16 February 2023

Gold Prices Remain Vulnerable Amid Hawkish Fedspeak and Further Hike Odds

Gold prices extended losses during Friday’s Asia-Pacific trading session. Hawkish Fedspeak further pushed up bond yields, denting XAU/USD as it broke key technical levels.

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US Dollar Bumped Higher by Hawkish Fed and Blistering PPI. Higher USD?

The US Dollar regained the ascendency after Federal Reserve speakers Mester and Bullard cited potential 50 basis points hikes in the pipeline. Will the DXY index keep going north?

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Dollar’s Friday Breakout Potential: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDJPY

Risk assets were under pressure through the close of the New York session, but critical technical were still in place for benchmarks like the S&P 500. Could the market overcome a quiet Friday to produce an unusual week-ending break? If so, the Dollar is ready to leverage its safe haven status against EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD.

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S&P 500 Underwater but Exuberance Hasn’t Yet Cracked - What Now for Stocks?

The S&P 500 has lacked strong directional conviction in recent days after the powerful rally earlier in the year, but the balance of risks appears to be tipping to the downside.

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USDCAD Outlook Has Distinct Technical Levels to Work With

In indecisive markets – which we are currently facing – markets tend to better abide high profile technical boundaries. With USDCAD, there is a well established range from the past month and even larger levels just beyond that congestion. This may suit our conditions well.

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Wednesday, 15 February 2023

Euro Trapped in the Range as US Dollar Takes off Elsewhere. Where to for EUR/USD?

The Euro consolidated today after the US Dollar reclaimed the ascendency overnight as Treasury yields maintain lofty levels. The ECB is hawkish. Will it boost EUR/USD?

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Great Fall of China: Population Decline Will Have Global Impact

China’s vast population is starting to fall, and the rate of decline could accelerate sharply in the years ahead. What will this mean for the global economy and markets?

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US Dollar Gains as Markets Digest Rosy Retail Sales After CPI Data, Where to?

The US Dollar rallied on Wednesday as markets digested rosy US retail sales data after a red-hot CPI print. Is the Greenback readying to reverse more of its winter 2022 drop?

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Dollar Breaks Higher While Dow Holds its Range: Which Move Metabolizes?

The Dollar earned a potential technical break higher while the Dow Jones Industrial Average seemed to fade back into its well-established range. Which of these moves is more likely to reflect the baseline for speculative conviction moving forward?

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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...