Monday, 9 October 2023

S&P 500 & Nasdaq Rebound from Key Support; How Much More Upside?

Despite the escalation in geopolitical tensions, US indices have rebounded from key support after an apparent dovish shift by Fed officials. However, rising US real yields/cost of borrowing pose constraints on the upside.

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Gold Price Rallies as US Dollar Slips and Volatility Ticks Up. Higher XAU/USD?

The gold price leapt higher again overnight as the markets contemplate the ramifications of increasing conflict in the Middle East and a US Dollar under pressure. Will XAU/USD gain further?

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Crude Oil Price Surge in Focus After Hamas Attacked Israel, Retail Bets Remain Bullish

Crude oil prices gapped and finished Monday 4.35% higher after Hamas’s attack on Israel generated potential supply disruption woes. Retail bets remain net-long. What are key levels to watch?

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Dollar Index (DXY) Retreats Helping USD/JPY Tick Lower, 145.00 Incoming?

USD/JPY Continues to edge lower as last week's bond buying spree from the BoJ appears to have run its course. Are we finally in for a retracement?

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OPEC Raises Demand Forecast as Middle East Tensions Boost WTI/Oil Prices, What Now?

Oil prices have risen on concerns of supply disruptions as tensions in the Middle East continue to roil markets. Is an Oil Embargo akin to 1973 a possibility?

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Gold (XAU/USD) Jumps on Safe Haven Bid as Middle East Conflict Intensifies

Gold is being pushed higher, boosted by a strong safe haven bid, after the surprise Hamas attack on Israel over the weekend.

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 Gap Lower on Middle East Conflict​​​

​​Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as military conflict plagues Israel and the Gaza strip 50 years after the fourth Israel-Arab war.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Souring Risk Sentiment Shackles Pound

The pound trades on the backfoot as safe haven demand sees the USD bid as tensions in the Middle East rise. UK GDP and US CPI inf focus later this week.

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Crude Oil Reverses Recent Losses as Markets Recalibrate after Israeli Invasion

WTI crude oil ran higher today along with the US Dollar as markets contemplate the consequences of the hostilities toward Israel over the weekend. Will it drive WTI higher?

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Sunday, 8 October 2023

Australian Dollar Dips as US Dollar Rallies After Israel Attack. Lower AUD/USD?

The Australian Dollar slipped to start this week after the US Dollar bounced on haven status and higher Treasury yields and bond spreads might impact further. Will AUD/USD?

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Market Q4 Outlook: Gold, Oil, Stocks, US Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen, BTC at Tipping Point

Different market dynamics are poised to unfold in the near term, potentially paving the way for increased volatility and attractive trading setups in major assets. This article presents a comprehensive collection of Q4 forecasts.

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US Equities Technical Outlook: Range-Bound with Downside Potential

The equity selloff the end of Q3 places the major US indices at a crucial level of support. Failure of support with sustained momentum leaves stocks open to further downside

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Crude Oil Prices Might Have Ran Too Far in Q3 Amid a Deteriorating China Outlook

Crude oil prices might have run too far in the third quarter, setting the stage for potential disappointment amid deteriorating economic conditions in China.

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Saturday, 7 October 2023

US Dollar – Is The Rally Coming To An End?

The US dollar has been a one-way trade since the middle of July, rallying in excess of 6% since printing a 99.49 low.

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Oil Fundamental Forecast: Can Q4 Sustain Oil Gains?

Q4 crude oil outlook focused on OPEC+, monetary policy and global economic growth conditions.

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The Range Trade is Alive and Well as Markets Ponder Central Bank Rate Strike

Range Trading Unfolds as Several Major Global Central Banks May Have Put the Cue Back in the Rack on Rate Rises.

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Friday, 6 October 2023

Australian Dollar Q4 Forecast: AUD Vulnerable as Headwinds Stack up

The Australian dollar has sold off in 2H with further frailties ahead. AUD/USD threatens to breakdown while AUD/JPY gears up for a reversal at major resistance

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Short USD/JPY: A Reprieve in the DXY Rally and FX Intervention by the BoJ

The USD/JPY has held the high ground for the majority of Q3 with rallies to the downside proving short lived at this stage. The potential for a downside move however remains in play and with the right fundamental developments

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September Jobs Report: Payrolls at 336,000; Gold and US Dollar Go Their Own Way

The U.S. employers created 336,000 jobs in September versus 170,000 expected, indicating that the labor market remains dynamic despite multi-year high interest rates – a positive sign for the economy.

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USD/ZAR Price Forecast: Rand Looks to NFP’s for Guidance

Rand prices strengthened in early trade but cautiously await the NFP report as a gauge to what the Fed may do regarding their interest rate cycle.

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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...