Tuesday, 2 January 2024

Gold (XAU), Oil (USOIL) Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Outlooks and Prices

Gold continues to push higher, oil is nearly 3% higher on geopolitical concerns and Bitcoin is at a fresh 21-month high ahead of the SEC’s ETF decision

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FTSE 100, Dax 40 and S&P 500 Kick Off the New Year on a Positive Footing​​​

​​Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as markets re-open after the festive season.

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Euro (EUR) Drifts Lower Against the US Dollar, Trend Remains Intact

The US dollar has grabbed a small bid as markets re-open, aided by slightly higher US Treasury yields. EUR/USD is eyeing a break below 1.1000 but this may prove temporary.

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Monday, 1 January 2024

Markets Q1 Outlook: Gold & Stocks in Record Zone, EUR/USD, GBP/USD Soar as USD Breaks Down

Different market dynamics are poised to unfold in the near term, potentially bringing about increased volatility and enticing trading setups for major assets in the first quarter of 2024.

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US Dollar Q1 Fundamental Outlook: A Tale of Two Halves – Weak Start, Strong Finish

The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation.

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Sunday, 31 December 2023

US Equities Q1 Technical Outlook: Stocks in Overbought Territory. Can It Continue?

The technical picture is a little hard to read for the S&P 500 heading into the first quarter of 2024, with immediate resistance resting near the record high around the 4,817 level.

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Gold, Silver Q1 Forecast: Fundamental Drivers Align but Real Rates Pose a Threat

The article focuses on the fundamental outlook for precious metals in the first quarter, focusing specifically on gold and silver prices, taking into account interest rate dynamics, as well as the U.S. dollar’s broader trend.

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USD/JPY Q1 Technical Forecast: Will the US Dollar Downtrend Endure?

USD/JPY Q1 Technical Forecast: Will the US Dollar Downtrend Endure? The preceding quarter saw USD/JPY power up to highs not previously seen since mid-1990, thanks largely to those fundamental, interest-rate differentials.

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Crude Oil Q1 Fundamental Forecast: US Rate Cut Hopes Offer Support Amid Demand Worries

Oil prices hit their highest level of 2023 in September but have declined very sharply since, with shaky economic data keeping markets fretting about the demand outlook.

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Saturday, 30 December 2023

Coinbase (COIN) – Growing Tailwinds as Cryptocurrency Interest Swells?

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, has seen its shares perform strongly in the second half of this year, rallying from around $46 in early June to a current level of $150.

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Euro Q1 Technical Forecast: A Mixed Picture

EUR/USD closed out 2023 on a positive note, recovering a sizeable chunk of the decline witnessed in the second half of the year. The medium-term trend appears bullish but yield differentials will struggle to motivate a prolonged period of upside potential.

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Short USD/JPY - Rising Rate Cut Expectations and FX Intervention by the BoJ

USD/JPY held the high ground for the first half of Q4 2023 before finally declining from near the 2022 highs. The selloff gained traction following growing chatter toward the end of November regarding a policy shift from the BoJ.

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Bitcoin Q1 Fundamental Outlook – Positive Tailwinds on the Horizon

Bitcoin goes into the first quarter of 2024 with two specific events set to determine price action in Q1 – a spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and the run-up into the latest Bitcoin ‘halving’ event.

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Friday, 29 December 2023

Bullish Gold: Top Trade Q1 2024

There are several factors influencing gold’s price that appear to be pulling in the same direction ahead of Q1 of 2024. These help to form the trading thesis and are outlined in the rest of this article along with technical considerations.

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Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Enters Q1 at Key Resistance

This article presents an in-depth analysis of the Australian dollar’s outlook for the first quarter, providing valuable insights into price action dynamics and market sentiment.

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Q1 Top Trade: Bullish Russell 2000 as Soft-Landing Scenario Gets Traction

This article analyzes the technical and fundamental outlook for the Russell 2000 for the first quarter of 2024, examining the main variables that could determine its medium-term prospects.

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 on Track for Another Day of Gains on Last Trading Day of Year

Outlook on FTSE 100 and DAX 40 as the year 2023 draws to a close.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Fading Bullish Momentum for Pound

GBP prices are approaching key resistance while showing technical signals that could point to impending downside to come, while UK housing prices advance since November.

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Thursday, 28 December 2023

The Collapse of Central Bank Forward Guidance

2023 was a year that lessened the stature of central bank forward guidance. Forward guidance is a tool used by central banks to communicate monetary policy projections.

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Mastering Risk Aversion: A Day Trader’s Top Lesson Learned

Another year and another lesson learned. As a day trader navigating the fast-paced and volatile world of financial markets, one crucial lesson stands out above the rest in 2023: mastering risk aversion.

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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...