EUR/USD may wobble ahead of the release of Eurozone CPI data and US ISM reports, though EU-US trade war tensions may ultimately provide a boost to the US Dollar at the expense of the Euro.
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Monday, 30 September 2019
Australian Dollar Spikes Up As RBA Delivers Well-Expected Rate Cut
AUD/USD made initial gains as Australia's key interest rate falls again, to 0.75%. The RBA's accompanying statement was no more dovish than recent editions.
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RBA Preview: AUDUSD Vulnerable to 25bp Rate Cut, Dovish Guidance
The RBA interest rate decision may drag on AUD/USD as the central bank is expected to cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 25bp to a fresh record-low of 0.75%.
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Oil Prices Face Renewed Risk of Bear Market as OPEC Sees Waning Demand
Oil prices face a renewed risk of a bear market as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) see waning demand in 2019.
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US Dollar Rose as Crude Oil Prices Broke Support, Eyeing August Low
Crude oil prices took out support, exposing August lows despite a pickup in risk appetite as the S&P 500 rose. The US Dollar rallied, taking the Euro to its weakest since May 2017.
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Gold Price Foreacst: XAUUSD Grasps for Support Near 2-Month Low
Gold suffered a break beneath support on Monday and will now look for subsequent buoyancy as bulls look to stem the recent bleed.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: WTO, Fed & ISM Manufacturing
The US Dollar jumped to fresh 2019 highs and looks to the upcoming WTO ruling in addition to Fed commentary and PMI data on deck to potentially fuel further upside.
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AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Price Outlook & RBA Decision Preview
The Australian Dollar is geared up for heightened volatility with the October RBA rate decision on deck for Tuesday alongside several other high-impact economic data releases.
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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD
The US Dollar has pushed up to a fresh two-year-high on the final trading day of Q3. Will USD bulls be able to hold the bid through the Q4 open?
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Euro Suffers as US Dollar Hits 2019 Peak, AUD Eyes Possible RBA Surprise - US Market Open
US Dollar posts fresh 2019 high as the Euro breaks below 1.09, while the Australian Dollar eyes the RBA rate decision.
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Dow, Dollar and Other Risk Assets Weigh Politics Against Trade and Growth
It is hard to determine what is in control of global investors’ fears or appetites. That is owing to a number of competing issues ranging from monetary policy being ramped to extremes, recession fe...
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Sterling (GBP) Price - Brexit Drivers and a FTSE 'Golden Cross' - Webinar
Sterling is flat to marginally higher as the week opens with the Conservative Party Conference now in full flow. Brexit will continue to dominate trading before US NFPs at the end of the week.
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Sterling (GBP) Price Remains Volatile as Brexit Rumors Swirl
Sterling remains weak as Brexit rumors abound in a week when the Conservative Party Conference begins against a background of rows and rancor.
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Sunday, 29 September 2019
US Dollar May Rise vs Euro if US-EU Trade War Escalates
The US Dollar may rise against the Euro if cross-Atlantic trade tensions are reignited amid the dispute over subsidies to Boeing and Airbus. Euro traders will also be carefully watching German data.
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Gold Price Forecast: Head-and-Shoulders Formation Takes Shape
The price of gold appears to be on track to test the monthly-low ($1483) as a head-and-shoulders formation takes shape.
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Asia Stocks Mixed on China Data, Weak Business Confidence HIts NZD
China’s private manufacturing sector showed strength at odds with ongoing weakness in larger, state-linked firms. Business sentiment continues to be woeful in New Zealand.
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US Dollar, NOK, SEK Eye EU-US Trade War and Key Data
The US Dollar may rise in the week ahead if key US data cools Fed rate cut bets against the backdrop of escalating EU-US trade tensions.
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EURUSD Rate Rebound Undermined by Bearish RSI Signal
EURUSD bounces back from a fresh 2019-low, but recent developments in the RSI offer a bearish signal as the oscillator snaps the upward trend from earlier this month.
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Austrlaian Dollar Slips, China Manufacturing PMI Stays In Contraction
AUD/USD traders are probably focused on the RBA this week, but news of ongoing weakness in China’s economy gave them a little pause.
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US Dollar Outlook: Indian Rupee May Fall on RBI, PHP too on CPI
The US Dollar may rise against the Indian Rupee if the RBI leaves the door open to further easing. Meanwhile, the Philippine Peso may lose its upside momentum on local CPI data.
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US Dollar Outlook: Indian Rupee May Fall on RBI, PHP too on CPI
The US Dollar may rise against the Indian Rupee if the RBI leaves the door open to further easing. Meanwhile, the Philippine Peso may lose its upside momentum on local CPI data.
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US Dollar Outlook: Indian Rupee May Fall on RBI, PHP too on CPI
The US Dollar may rise against the Indian Rupee if the RBI leaves the door open to further easing. Meanwhile, the Philippine Peso may lose its upside momentum on local CPI data.
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British Pound Downtrend May Hasten, Yen Could Gain on Risk Aversion
The British Pound downtrend may accelerate versus the US Dollar. The anti-risk Japanese Yen may gain as the latest US-China developments spread risk aversion into APAC markets.
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Dow, Dollar and Other Risk Assets Weigh Politics Against Trade and Growth
It is hard to determine what is in control of global investors’ fears or appetites. That is owing to a number of competing issues ranging from monetary policy being ramped to extremes, recession fe...
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DAX & FTSE 100 Fundamental Forecast
Politics outweighing the economics as equity markets close the week broadly in the red.
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Saturday, 28 September 2019
Gold Prices May Oscillate Between Trade Wars, US Economic Data
Gold prices may be torn between the downward pressure of positive US economic data and the upward force of trade war uncertainty and its impact on Fed rate cut bets.
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Crude Oil Price Forecast: Undermined by China Slowdown, Political Moves
Crude oil is down 5% on the week and by over 12% in the last two weeks as global growth fears and politics weigh on oil.
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Friday, 27 September 2019
Australian Dollar Market Might Just Be More Dovish than the RBA
The chance of an Australian rate cut this week is now very high, the market believes, and it’s probably right. However, the RBA may not be as sure about a further reduction.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report & Trading Ranges for Next Week
The US Dollar faces another week of high-impact economic data releases that stand to sway Fed rate cut bets and drive USD price action - here's where the greenback could head next.
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Dow Jones Drops on Report US May Limit Investment in China
The Dow Jones quickly turned from green to red after a report was released that the White House may limit portfolio exposure to China in what amounts to a new angle in the US-China trade war.
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USD/CAD Weighed Down Despite Crude Oil Prices Returning to Symmetrical Triangle
The lack of an immediate global growth slowdown on the back of a Saudi oil supply shock has given room for risk appetite to rebound, benefiting the commodity currencies.
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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD
The US Dollar is putting in a strong breakout as the Q3 close approaches, but can buyers sustain the move through Q4 of this year, or is this yet another trap of USD-strength?
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Sterling (GBP) on the Ropes after Dovish BoE Rate Talk
Sterling fell through 1.2300 against the US dollar in early trade after a member of the Bank of England’s MPC warned that UK interest rates may move lower, deal or no-deal.
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EUR/USD Price Breaks Through Support, Eyeballs Lower Levels
The Euro continues to weaken against a range of currencies with EURUSD now down at lows last seen in May 2017.
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Crude Oil Prices May Fall as US PCE Data Cools Fed Rate Cut Bets
Crude oil prices may fall as an uptick in the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation cools rate cut speculation and sours the mood across financial markets.
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Thursday, 26 September 2019
US Dollar May Rise if PCE, Income Data Cools Fed Rate Cut Bets
The US Dollar may rise at the expense of equity markets if key US data beats forecasts, cools Fed rate cut bets and sours hope for aggressive easing.
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US Dollar May Rise vs PHP, MYR. Malaysia Stays in Key Bond Index
The US Dollar may rise versus the Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit despite the BSP cooling rate cut bets and FTSE Russell keeping Malaysian debt in the World Government Bond Index.
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US Dollar, London Increase Currency Market Dominance, Yuan Stagnates
The politics of the US and UK may be starkly divided but their grip on the vast, $6.6 trillion global foreign exchange trade seems as tight as ever.
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AUD/NZD Staging Reversal, US Dollar Shrugs Repo Liquidity Crunch
The New Zealand Dollar may be staging a larger reversal against the Australian Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Dollar shrugged off liquidity woes amid the latest Fed repo operation.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: Core PCE Data to Drive USD
The US Dollar has been on a tear this week, but USD price action faces major event risk with inflation and durable goods data on deck for release on Friday.
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Fed Commentary Begins to Reflect Less Appetite for Easing Going Forward
After two rate cuts this year the expectations for continued easing from the Federal Reserve has decreased since hitting a high in August
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US Dollar Rally Pushes Towards Fresh 2019 Highs - Key Levels for DXY Index & USD/JPY
Soft Fed rate cut odds coupled with rising expectations for more easing elsewhere are helping prop up the DXY Index.
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Strait of Hormuz: The World's Most Important Oil Chokepoint
With over a third of global seaborne crude oil and a fifth of oil traded worldwide flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, this narrow nautical channel may be the world’s most important chokepoint.
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Euro Bounces Frome Critical Support, NZD/USD Outperforms - US Market Open
Euro finds support from 2019 low yet again at 1.0925, subsequently forming a triple bottom. New Zealand Dollar flying high on RBNZ and short-covering.
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Gold Technical Outlook: Gold Prices Snap Back Ahead of Q4 Open
The bullish trend in Gold prices is on the back foot as Q3 nears its end. But how aggressively can sellers push against this well-built topside theme?
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EUR/USD Support Under Heavy Pressure, Eyes a Gap Lower Down
The Euro remains under selling pressure and is heading back towards levels last seen in mid-2017. And in the background, the ECB is now looking for a new executive board member after a sudden resig...
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Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Risk of Lower Levels
The Japanese Yen could stand to gain amid the current backdrop of political instability with the UK, alongside trade tensions with China and the EU.
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US Dollar Eyes US GDP Data: Will the Report Boost Fed Rate Cut Bets?
The US Dollar and equity markets will be closely watching the publication of GDP data after this week’s consumer confidence report painted a gloomy picture.
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Wednesday, 25 September 2019
Asia Stocks Mixed, Data Show US-Chian Deal Can't Come Too Soon
Donald Trump may rate a deal with China as more likely than reporters think, but Asian economic numbers increasingly underline how vital a settlement has become.
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How Crude Oil Prices React to Weather-Induced Disruption Fears
With increasing volatility in weather patterns, how might storms, hurricanes and floods rattle the supply chain for petroleum-based products and impact crude oil prices?
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Gold Prices Close to Confirming Top, Crude Oil May Resume Descent
Gold prices are getting closer to confirming a major bearish chart setup. Crude oil prices may be on the verge of resuming a five-month downtrend.
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The Singapore Dollar and MAS: What is SGD and How to Trade it?
The Singapore Dollar (SGD) is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the SGD and how to trade it.
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Post-FOMC Gold Price Rally Unravels Amid Less-Dovish Fed Rhetoric
The price of gold gives back the advance following the FOMC meeting, with recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) warning of a larger correction.
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US Dollar Soars on Trump Trade Comment, House Sales. Yen May Fall
The US Dollar soared as the DXY closed above a 3-week high as local housing sales and US-China trade talks boosted the S&P 500. Ahead, the anti-risk Japanese Yen looks vulnerable.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: EUR/USD, AUD/USD & USD/MXN
US Dollar implied volatility ticked higher after the greenback ripped higher on Wednesday. USD price action is likely to remain elevated with high-impact event risk on deck the rest of the week.
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Nasdaq 100 Price Forecast: Semiconductor Stocks Look to Micron Earnings
The Nasdaq 100 will keep a close eye on earnings from Micron, which has potential to shed light on the impact of the US-China trade war and the health of the critically important semiconductor sector.
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USD/MXN: Mexican Peso Primed for Banxico Rate Cut, What Next?
USDMXN comes into forex traders' crosshairs with the September Banxico rate decision on deck for Thursday. Where might the Mexican Peso head next?
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Silver Price Forecast: ETF Holdings Slip as XAGUSD Price Fades
The price of silver has slipped in the last two weeks after peaking on September 4 and the total ETF holdings of silver have begun to slip alongside the asset’s price.
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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Creeps Towards Capitulation
The Canadian Dollar is on the defensive with US Dollar strength taking price back towards downtrend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts.
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US Dollar is King, GBP/USD Suffers, USD/JPY May Reverse - US Market Open
The US Dollar remains king as its major counterparts weaken, most notably GBP. The greenback appears to have shrugged off the initital fears pertaining to an impeachment of President Trump.
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Australian Dollar Price Outlook: AUD/USD Sellers Drive into Support
The Australian Dollar has been mired in varying forms of sell-off since January of 2018. Are bears nearing another fresh 10-year low in AUD/USD?
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FTSE 100 & DAX Fundamental Forecast: Trump Impeachment Odds Rise
Equity markets sell-off as risk appetite drops following House Speaker Pelosi's announcement that the House will launch an impeachment inquiry into President Trump
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Sterling (GBP) Price Action Dominated by Brexit Disarray
Sterling is once again being moved around by the latest Brexit confusion with PM Boris Johnson expected to receive a rancorous reception in a re-opened Parliament.
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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Slumps 15% as Cryptocurrency Market Crashes
Volatility returned to the cryptocurrency market with a bang Tuesday with a range of coins shedding 15%-25% in a few hours as sellers routed the market.
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Euro Braces for ECB, Draghi. US Dollar Eyes CPI Data
The Euro and British Pound will be closely watching how ongoing Brexit drama unfolds after a UK Supreme Court ruling found Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament to be unlawful.
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Tuesday, 24 September 2019
Asia Stocks Wilt As Impeachment Start Adds To Market Woes
Asia Pacific equity didn’t need another major source of potential risk but the formal start of impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump gave them one anyway.
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AUDUSD Rate Outlook Remains Mired as RBA Sticks to Dovish Guidance
The recent rebound in AUDUSD may prove to be short-lived as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retains a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy.
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Gold Prices Hit 3-Week High But Chart Still Warns of Topping
Gold prices marked a fourth day of gains with a rise to three-week highs, but technical positioning continues to warn that a reversal downward may be in the works.
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Canadian Dollar Sinks With Crude Oil, USD/CAD Still Eyes Support
The Canadian Dollar fell with crude oil as dismal US Consumer Confidence data fueled Fed rate cut bets, sinking USD. Ahead, USD/CAD eyes near-term support as NZD awaits the RBNZ.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: Treasury Yield Curve in Focus
The US Dollar sank alongside Treasury yields after consumer confidence deteriorated, which sparked concerns about the underlying strength of America's consumer-driven economy.
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NZD/USD Price Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Eyes RBNZ Decision
NZDUSD implied volatility skyrockets as forex traders await the latest monetary policy update from the RBNZ, which follows the central bank's prior 50-bps surprise rate cut.
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Bitcoin Price Plunges Through Support; ETH, XRP & LTC Slide Similarly
Bitcoin prices plunged 7% in mere minutes as a long-standing area of technical support was breached. Ethereum, XRP and Litecoin slipped simultaneously as the cryptocurrency market endures a rout.
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Dow Jones Forecast: Nike Earnings to Deliver Trade War & Retailer Insight
The Dow Jones will look to earnings from footwear-giant Nike after the close on Tuesday. The firm has previously noted headwinds brought about by trade wars, will they do so again?
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EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Diverge as Risk Appetite Sours on Trump Comments
Flaring concerns about the US-China trade war are weighing on the US Dollar, in turn sending EURJPY and EURUSD rates in different directions.
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USD & Treasury Yields Drop as US Consumer Confidence Slides
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined for September causing the USD and S&P 500 to fall on the report as the survey shows consumer confidence continues to be impacted from US-Chin...
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GBP/USD Choppy, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Outperform - US Market Open
The Pound is broadly firmer this morning following the UK Supreme Court decision. AUD & NZD outperform on improved risk tone, eyes on RBNZ.
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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD
The US Dollar remains near highs as the end of Q3 approaches, leaving a number of interesting themes across major FX pairs.
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Market Sentiment: Havens in Demand, GBP Up on Court Ruling | Webinar
Safe havens such as the Yen, the Swiss Franc and Gold are all gaining ground as trader sentiment turns sour but Sterling is firmer on the Court ruling that the suspension of the UK Parliament was u...
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UK Supreme Courts Rules PM Johnson's Prorogation as Unlawful, GBP/USD Rise Reversed
GBP/USD sees a choppy reaction following the UK Supreme Court’s decision to rule the PM Johnson’s prorogation was deemed unlawful.
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Gold Price Eyes Fresh Higher High, Silver Price Retains Latest Rally
The price of gold may re-test its recent high in the short-term after failing to break support last week, while silver’s spike higher yesterday is being consolidated.
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Euro May Fall on German IFO Data After PMIs Sent Chilling Message
The Euro may suffer if German IFO data amplifies regional slowdown fears after Eurozone PMI data sent a chill down the spine of European policymakers.
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Monday, 23 September 2019
HK Sees Year's Second-Biggest IPO, Anheuser Busch Floats Asia Unit
There was some good news for Hong Kong’s post-protest future as a financial center Tuesday. US-China trade hopes buoyed equity in the broader region.
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Crude Oil Prices May Idle as the FOMC Regains the Spotlight
Crude oil prices may fall if downbeat German IFO data stokes global slowdown fears even as an US consumer confidence figures cool Fed rate cut speculation.
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USDCAD Rate Rebound Sputters Amid Divided FOMC
The failed attempt to test the monthly-high (1.3383) brings the downside targets back on the radar for USDCAD as the RSI tracks the bearish formation from August.
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Gold Price Rally to Persist If Bullish RSI Signal Takes Shape
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) may offer a bullish signal for gold prices should the oscillator snap the downward trend from earlier this year.
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New Zealand Dollar May Rise Against USD, British Pound Weakened
The New Zealand Dollar may be reversing against the US Dollar, but fundamental conviction may have to wait for the RBNZ. The British Pound underperformed against its major peers.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: USD Eyes Consumer Confidence
USD price action turns to Tuesday's release of US Consumer Confidence data, which may serve as a major source of US Dollar volatility in addition to other high-impact event risk on the docket.
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Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie Drops into Downtrend Support
The Australian Dollar is poised to mark the fourth consecutive daily loss with price now testing support . Here are the levels that matter on the AUD/USD price charts.
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EUR/USD: Euro Wilts on Woeful PMI Data, ECB’s Draghi Speaks
Euro selling pressure is accelerating again after dismal Eurozone PMI data readings point to prolonged economic weakness. Meanwhile, ECB's Draghi gives a testimony to European Parliament.
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GBP/USD, EUR/USD Drops, USD/CAD Rejects Key Resistance - US Market Open
Both the Pound and the Euro have gotten off to a soft start to kick-off the week with the latter weighed by the latest Eurozone PMI figures.
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UK Markets Wait For Supreme Court Ruling, Brexit Update - Webinar
Sterling's recent rally has reversed as traders wait to see if UK PM Boris Johnson's prorogation of Parliament was legal.
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EUR/USD Price Slumps as Germany PMI Data Points to Recession
The Euro broke back below 1.1000 against the US dollar after the latest IHS Markit PMI numbers all but confirmed that Germany is entering a recession.
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Euro May Fall If Draghi Hearing, PMI Data Spooks Markets
EUR/CHF traders will be closely watching a parliamentary hearing where ECB President Mario Draghi will be questioned on monetary policy and his outlook on the economy.
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Sunday, 22 September 2019
ASIAN STOCKS NO HEADERS
Asian equity had a scrappy start to the week. Japan was out for holiday leaving markets dominated by the US-China trade story. Oil prices rose as investors mulled restoration of Saudi supply.
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Crude Oil Prices May Fall on ECB Commentary, US PMI Data
Crude oil prices may be pressured lower as ECB President Mario Draghi sounds the alarm on slowing global growth while US PMI data cools Fed rate cut bets.
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US Dollar May Rise vs. NOK, SEK Ahead of US GDP Data, Trade Wars
The US Dollar may rise against its pro-risk Nordic counterparts if US GDP data cools rate cut bets and US-China trade war tensions escalate as both parties prepare for key talks in October.
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US Dollar ASEAN Outlook Bullish, Trade Deal Hopes Fade, PHP at Risk
The US Dollar may rise against Emerging Market and ASEAN currencies after US-China trade hopes faded, risking regional capital outflows. Meanwhile, the Philippine Peso awaits an anticipated rate cut.
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AUDUSD Rate Outlook Mired by Lower Highs and Lows Ahead of RBA Speech
Recent price action warns of a further decline in AUDUSD as the exchange rate carves a series of lower highs and lows.
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US Dollar, London Increase Currency Market Dominance, Yuan Stagnates
The politics of the US and UK may be starkly divided but their grip on the vast, $6.6 trillion global foreign exchange trade seems as tight as ever.
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Yen May Reverse Versus US Dollar, US-China Trade Deal Optimism Dims
The US Dollar is increasingly vulnerable to reversing against the Japanese Yen after US-China trade deal optimism faded, plunging the pro-risk Australian and New Zealand Dollars.
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Dow, Gold and EURUSD Await Direction from Trade Wars and Recession Fears
Monetary policy was the key theme of the past week with the Fed following in the ECBs footsteps with a rate cut and other extraordinarily dovish authorities held steady in QE and negative rates. Th...
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Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500 Forecasts for the Week
The Dow Jones and DAX 30 have their respective rate decisions behind them and could grasp for direction amid trade war headlines while the FTSE 100 will wade through continued Brexit uncertainty.
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Saturday, 21 September 2019
Sterling (GBP) Price Forecast: Supreme Court Ruling May Stem Latest Rally
The UK Supreme Court will rule next week if PM Boris Johnson’s prorogation of Parliament was legal or not. A negative ruling would stop the latest Sterling rally in its tracks.
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Euro May Keep Falling on Dovish ECB, Soft Data and Sour Sentiment
The Euro may continue to fall as local data bolsters dovish rhetoric from ECB President Draghi while US-China trade talks and Brexit risk rattle broader sentiment.
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Gold Price Outlook Hinges on Fed Rhetoric, US NFP Report
Fresh comments from a slew of Federal Reserve officials may influence the price of gold as there appears to be a growing dissent at the central bank.
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US Dollar May Rise if US GDP Data, Trade War Risks Spook Markets
The US Dollar may catch a haven bid if US GDP data beats forecasts and cools Fed rate cut bets against the backdrop of fragile US-China trade talks.
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Friday, 20 September 2019
AUD Stuggling But Underpinned By More Robust Risk Appetite
The Australian Dollar took knocks last week from several directions, both foreign and domestic. This week may be better for the bulls, if only a little.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: USD Eyes Data, Fed-Speak
US Dollar volatility could be understated in light of several high-impact economic data readings set for release next week, which will be accompanied by US-China trade war headlines and speeches fr...
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Bitcoin Price Chart Forecast: BTCUSD Awaits Pennant Breakout
Bitcoin has maintained a tight trading formation throughout September as the lower and upper bounds of a pennant pattern constrict price action. Now, space is lacking, and a breakout is due.
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US Household Net Worth increases $1.83 trillion for Q2
US Household wealth hits $113.5 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2019 helped by rising home prices and a growing US stock market.
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Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Recovery to be Short-lived- GLD Outlook
Gold snapped a three-week losing streak but continues to consolidate just below a critical resistance zone. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.
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75 Years Later, The Lessons of Bretton Woods Have Been Forgotten
The 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods conference was at the end of July, and the concerns that were present in 1944 are reasserting themselves as significant threats to the global economy in 2019.
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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD
The September FOMC rate decision is now in the books and, as of yet, nothing has broken. The attention now turns to economic data out of the US.
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Gold Price Slowly Building Bullish Momentum, Silver Price Consolidates
Gold and silver are both inching higher after their recent sell-offs. Both need to consolidate further if they are to re-test recent highs.
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Euro Braces for ECB, Draghi. US Dollar Eyes CPI Data
The US Dollar and Euro will be closely watching ongoing US-China trade talks after President Donald Trump’s advisor gave market’s a chilling message.
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Thursday, 19 September 2019
Stocks Inch Up On Local Tailwinds Despite New US-China Trade Jitters
New clouds appeared over the US-China trade story but the two sides are at least still talking and Asian stock investors founds things to cheer elsewhere.
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US Dollar May Overtake Rupiah if Trade Talks Sour as Indonesia Cuts
The US Dollar struggled to gain against the Rupiah despite the Bank of Indonesia delivering a cut. Its efforts to guard USD/IDR will be tested should US-China trade talks sour.
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Gold Price Chart Warns of Downturn as Markets Digest Fed Outlook
Gold price technical positioning is warning that a significant turn lower may be in the works as prices digest the outcome of September’s FOMC rate decision.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report & USD Trading Ranges Post-Fed
As USD implied volatility drifts lower with event risk from the September Fed meeting in the rearview mirror, here are the estimated trading ranges for major US Dollar currency pairs.
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US Dollar, London Increase Currency Market Dominance, Yuan Stagnates
The politics of the US and UK may be starkly divided but their grip on the vast, $6.6 trillion global foreign exchange trade seems as tight as ever.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report & USD Trading Ranges Post-Fed
As USD implied volatility drifts lower with event risk from the September Fed meeting in the rearview mirror, here are the estimated trading ranges for major US Dollar currency pairs.
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NZDUSD Rate Eyes 2019 Low Ahead of RBNZ Meeting
NZDUSD approaches the 2019-low (0.6269) ahead of the RBNZ meeting, but there appears to be a divergence between price and the RSI as the oscillator holds above 30.
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Australian Dollar May Fall, Yen Gains as Markets Eye Trade Talks
The Australian Dollar may approach August lows against the US Dollar after US-China trade comments fueled volatility in financial markets. The Japanese Yen may look past CPI data.
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OECD Cuts Global GDP Growth Outlook as Trade Risks Linger
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development downgraded their global growth forecast as they predict a deeper global slowdown driven by weak manufacturing, protectionist trade policies...
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Dow Jones Forecast: Momentum Stocks Gain Ground but Resistance Weighs Heavy
After opening higher, the Dow Jones forfeited gains as trade tensions look to derail a post-FOMC rally higher. Still, tech and momentum stocks were able to stem recent losses.
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Canadian Dollar Price Chart: USD/CAD Range, Loonie Breakout Potential
USD/CAD is up on the week, but the broader focus remains on a break of a multi-week range in price. Here are the levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly chart.
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AUD/USD Drops as Rate Cut Bets Soar, USD Reverses Fed Induced Gains - US Market Open
AUD/USD on the backfoot as rate cut bets soar following uptick in unemployment, eyes on Governor Lowe’s speech. JPY and CHF boosted by BoJ and SNB. USD reverses gains
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WTI Oil Price Outlook: Sharp Moves, Nasty Headlines, Levels to Know
Oil prices have been on the move this week and the prospect of continued flares in the Middle East can keep this them center-stage.
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GBP/USD, FTSE 100 Muted on Bank of England Rate Decision
Bank of England leaves monetary policy unchanged as expected. Ongoing Brexit uncertainty to continuing weighing on UK growth.
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Bitcoin Price Battles Trend Resistance, Ethereum Continues to Outperform
The battle between Bitcoin bulls and bears continues with sellers looking to have gained the upper hand in the short-term. Will multi-month support break or will trend resistance fold?
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Gold Prices Bounce Off Support, Silver Prices to Challenge Key Resistance
Gold & Silver prices drop post FOMC rate decision, however, key support underpins for now. Focus now turns to the US-China trade war in which an interim deal could renewed pressure on the precious ...
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Central Bank Independence: The Cases For and Against
If the independence of central banks like the Federal Reserve is eroded, traders will need to listen more closely to what politicians are saying. What are the pros and cons?
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Euro Braces for ECB, Draghi. US Dollar Eyes CPI Data
The US Dollar and Swiss Franc may catch a haven bid and rise vs GBP if the BoE rate decision and outlook on Brexit puts a premium on anti-risk assets.
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Wednesday, 18 September 2019
Stocks Mixed as Asian Investors Mull Fed Caution. BoJ Policy On Hold
The US central bank cut rates as expected but was more circumspect about further action than the markets had hoped. The Bank of Japan said it would review its own policy settings in October
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Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Markets Digest FOMC Rate Decision
Crude oil prices may fall as investors bemoan the Fed’s guarded approach to further rate cuts even as the markets pine for a lot more policy support.
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Divided FOMC to Boost Gold as Hedging Tool Against Fiat Currencies
The growing dissent within the Federal Reserve may heighten the appeal of gold as Chairman Powell and Co. project a lower trajectory for the benchmark interest rate.
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Crude Oil Prices, US Dollar-NOK Brace for Norges Bank After FOMC
The oil-linked Norwegian Krone will be closely watching the Norges Bank rate decision after the Fed failed to live up to the market’s ultra-dovish expectations.
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Austrailan Dollar Fades As Full-Time Employment Wilts, Jobless Rate Up
Headline Australian job creation smashed forecasts in August but was bolstered by part-time positions. Full-time employment fell sharply and the overall unemployment rate ticked up. AUD/USD retreat...
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Upbeat Australia Employment Report to Curb AUDUSD Losses
Fresh updates to Australia’s employment report may curb the recent decline in AUDUSD as the economy is anticipated to add 15.0K jobs in August.
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US Dollar Held Gains Post Fed Cut, Japanese Yen May Look Past BoJ
The US Dollar held onto gains as equities recovered after the Fed delivered a less-dovish interest rate cut. Ahead, the anti-risk Japanese Yen may look past the BoJ for market mood.
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NZD/USD Downtrend Held on New Zealand GDP Beat, Trade Talks Eyed
The New Zealand Dollar rose as local GDP data beat expectations, but follow-through may have to wait for US-China trade talks with NZD/USD holding on to its dominant downtrend.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: AUD/USD Eyed Post-Fed Rate Cut
The US Dollar remains anchored to technical confluence in the wake of the latest Fed meeting, but USD implied volatility and risk reversals suggest the greenback could still make a big move.
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Dow Jones Drops, US Dollar Pops as FOMC Cuts but Remains Divided Over Next Move
The highly anticipated FOMC rate decision saw markets fluctuate wildly Wednesday as the Committee failed to offer a definitive path forward alongside the fulfillment of the widely expected 25-basis...
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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Rally at Resistance into FOMC
The Canadian Dollar is poised to mark the sixth consecutive daily loss against the USD with FOMC on tap. Here are the levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts.
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How Gold, Oil, Stocks & USD Perform After FOMC Rate Cuts Start
The Fed and its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely announce another rate cut tomorrow - so how does gold, oil, the S&P 500 and US Dollar perform amid accommodative monetary policy?
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US Dollar Outperforms, GBP/USD Dips, USD/CAD Muted - US Market Open
The US Dollar has recouped much of yesterday’s losses as eyes turn towards the FOMC rate decision, in which the central bank is expected to lower interest rates.
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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD
Fed day is here and the bank is expected to cut rates 25 bps. But what else will the FOMC say about future policy?
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GBPUSD Price Slips Lower as UK Inflation Falls to a Near Three-Year Low
GBPUSD turned lower after the latest UK inflation release showed price pressures easing, leaving the UK consumer with more money in their pockets as real wages rise.
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Euro Braces for ECB, Draghi. US Dollar Eyes CPI Data
The US Dollar may rise at the expense of equities if after the FOMC rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing cools rate cut bets.
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Tuesday, 17 September 2019
GBPUSD Rebound Vulnerable to Slowing UK Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Updates to the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) may rattle the recent rebound in GBPUSD as the reading for inflation is expected to narrow to 1.9% from 2.1% in July.
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Stocks Mixed as Oil Prices Retrace Gains, Fed Wait Limits Trade
Asia Pacific indexes endured a typical pre-Fed session with some spice added by the pullback in oil prices on hopes that Saudi supply can be quickly restored
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Gold Prices Show Signs of Topping as All Eyes Turn to FOMC
Gold price technical positioning is warning that a top may be in the works. The setup may be activated as the Fed underwhelms financial markets’ ultra-dovish policy bets.
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USDCAD Rate Eyes Monthly High Ahead of Canada CPI, Fed Rate Decision
USDCAD appears to be making a run at the monthly-high, but fresh developments coming out of North American may rattle the recent rebound in the exchange rate.
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US Dollar, Brazilian Real Brace for FOMC and Selic Rate Decisions
The Brazilian Real and US Dollar will have a hectic day ahead of the BCB and FOMC rate decisions in an environment of political volatility and concerns about future growth.
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EUR/USD Downtrend Held as Fed Sunk the US Dollar in Repo Operation
The US Dollar sunk as the Fed injected liquidity into financial markets ahead of today’s rate decision. Even though the Euro rose, the EUR/USD dominant downtrend remained intact.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: Powell & SEP to Drive USD
US Dollar currency volatility remains fixated on Wednesday's FOMC rate review, but the central bank's updated economic projections and Powell presser may warrant a larger reaction.
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How Gold, Oil, Stocks & USD Perform After FOMC Rate Cuts Start
The Fed and its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely announce another rate cut tomorrow - so how does gold, oil, the S&P 500 and US Dollar perform amid accommodative monetary policy?
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPY ETF Sees Largest Outflow in 11 Months Ahead of Fed
Despite minimal price movement for the S&P 500, the SPY ETF has seen massive capital flows since Friday as investors look to position ahead of the FOMC rate decision.
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US Dollar Rally Curtailed Ahead of September Fed Meeting - Levels for DXY & USD/JPY
Market participants have entered their typical pre-FOMC drift trading habits, with volatility cooling in the 24-hours leading into the Fed meeting.
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Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie Breakout Potential into FOMC
Aussie rebounded off uptrend support today but keeps the broader advance at risk while below key resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the AUD/USD price charts.
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Emerging Markets Crisis Monitor - Seven Factors Traders Should Watch
All currencies are not the same; emerging market FX trades differently than developed market FX.
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Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout at Resistance- FOMC Levels
USD/JPY has covered half of the yearly range in the last four weeks with price eyeing resistance ahead FOMC. Here are the levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly chart.
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US Dollar Funding Pressure May Spark Fed Action - US Market Open
US Dollar Shortage? Funding pressure sees repo rates soar, which may prompt the Fed to act. Euro holds steady on ZEW data. SEK drops as rising unemployment provides raises concerns for the Riksbank.
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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Bounce Runs into Resistance
USD/CAD has posed a vigorous bounce since running into support last week, but price action remains in a key zone of resistance ahead of FOMC.
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Market Sentiment Positive Despite Oil Price Surge | Webinar
Market sentiment is broadly positive in the currency and stock markets despite the jump in oil prices afterSaturday’sattack on a Saudi oil processing facility and a nearby oil field.
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Crude Oil Price Outlook: Oil Backwardation Highest in 6 Years
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain at the forefront of investors’ minds with the Saudi Oil minister scheduled to speak from 18:15BST. Oil prices see a 6 standard deviation move.
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EUR/USD Price Outlook - Path of Least Resistance Suggests Lower Prices
EURUSD is unlikely to get any real support from today’s ZEW release while the upcoming FOMC rate cut is already baked into the price. Lower for longer looks more likely.
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Strait of Hormuz: The World's Most Important Oil Chokepoint
With over a third of global seaborne crude oil and a fifth of oil traded worldwide flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, this narrow nautical channel may be the world’s most important chokepoint.
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Crude Oil Prices May Idle as the FOMC Regains the Spotlight
Crude oil prices may pause to digest after explosive gains at the start of the week as traders turn skittish about overcommitting ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision.
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Monday, 16 September 2019
Euro Braces for ECB, Draghi. US Dollar Eyes CPI Data
The Euro and US Dollar will be closely watching commentary from ECB officials, German ZEW and US Industrial production data. But volatility may be tamed by upcoming FOMC meeting.
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Stocks Mostly Lower As Oil Price Surge Holds After Saudi Attracks
Risk appetite remained capped by geopolitics as investors counted the cost of elevated oil prices and weighed the chances of them enduring
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Asia FX Markets Eye RCEP Trade Talks as Regional Growth Sputters
Asia FX markets will be closely watching for developments in the ongoing China-led RCEP trade negotiations against the backdrop of slower global growth and rising protectionism.
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Australian Dollar Wilts. RBA Keeps Rate-Cut Prospects Very Much Alive
The minutes of the last Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting found the central bank resolved to keep all options on the table.
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Gold Price Forecast: All Eyes on Fed Rate Decision, Forward Guidance
Fresh updates from the Federal Reserve may push market participates to hedge against fiat currencies as the central bank is expected to implement another 25bp rate cut.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: September Fed Meeting on Deck
The long-awaited September Fed meeting is now just hours away. What does US Dollar volatility convey about the central bank's upcoming interest rate decision?
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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: September BOE Meeting & GBP/USD Rate Forecast
The September BOE meeting results will be released on Thursday, September 19 at 11:00 GMT, but with the Brexit talks ongoing, rates should stay on hold.
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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: Q2'19 New Zealand GDP & NZD/USD Rate Forecast
The Q2’19 New Zealand GDP report will be released on Wednesday, September 18 at 22:45 GMT and forecasts suggest a slowing rate of growth.
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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Targets- Battle Lines Drawn
Euro reversed off downtrend resistance last week with the decline now challenging monthly open support. Here are the levels that matter on the EUR/USD price charts.
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Crude Oil Prices Threaten Major Breakout - How Will USD/CAD Respond?
Oil prices exploded higher at the market open on Sunday after a weekend attack on a Saudi Arabian processing facility knocked over 5% of the global oil supply offline.
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Gold Price Outlook: Gold Clings to Support Ahead of the Fed
Gold prices continue to grasp for support around the 1500 level. But will buyers kick-in that next bullish wave ahead of the Fed?
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Weekly British Pound Forecast: Inflation Report Due Ahead of BOE Meeting; Brexit Talks Ongoing
As Brexit talks persist, the BOE remains sidelined. And with the UK parliament prorogued, all attention is on UK PM Johnson's talks with his EU counterparts.
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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF
It was a climactic outing for both the US Dollar and the Euro last week, and this week's FOMC rate decision can keep the volatility flowing.
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Crude Oil Explodes Higher, CAD and JPY Gain - US Market Open
Crude oil futures saw a record spike higher at the Asia open, with Brent crude gapping higher by 18% to hit 4-month highs. In typical fashion, oil-sensitive currencies benefitted.
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Fed Expected to Keep Risk Appetite Running After ECB, Trade Wars
The fundamental pressure will not ease up over the coming week, but momentum behind a distinct trend is not guaranteed. Risk appetite has benefit an improved view of trade wars and the help offered...
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Sterling (GBP) Price Outlook: Brexit, Prorogation and BoE All in The Mix
GBPUSD is expected to remain volatile this week as Brexit meetings collide with the Bank of England and the question of whether prorogation is legal or not.
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DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users
DailyFX now offers all DailyFX+ content freely to all web users.
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Gold Price, Silver Price Jump After Saudi Arabia Oil Field Attacks
Gold and silver turned sharply higher after the weekend’s drone attacks on Saudi oil fields saw tensions in the area ratchet higher with US President Donald Trump warning Iran that he is ‘locked and loaded’.
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Crude Oil Prices See Record Spike Higher on Saudi Oil Attack
A crude awakening as crude oil prices explode higher with geopolitical tensions reaching boiling point, after Saudi oil attack sees over 50% of Saudi production disrupted.
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Gold Price Rise May Struggle to Extend Before FOMC Rate Decision
Gold price surge may struggle for follow-through, with markets turning their attention back to the upcoming FOMC rate decision even as the chart setup warns of topping.
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US Dollar, Yen, CHF May Rise on Saudi Aramco Attack, Iran Risks
The US Dollar, Swiss France and Japanese Yen may rise amid a risk-averse environment after crude oil prices surged following the attack on a key Saudi Arabian oil processing facility.
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Sunday, 15 September 2019
Stocks Mixed As Crude Oil Prices Surge On Saudi Drone Strike
Regional equity markets were perhaps surprisingly muted overall given the combination of a huge rise in oil prices and disappointing Chinese economic numbers.
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Weekly British Pound Forecast: Inflation Report Due Ahead of BOE Meeting; Brexit Talks Ongoing
As Brexit talks persist, the BOE remains sidelined. And with the UK parliament prorogued, all attention is on UK PM Johnson's talks with his EU counterparts.
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Less-Dovish RBA Minutes to Fuel AUDUSD Rate Rebound
More of the same from the RBA may fuel the recent rebound in AUDUSD as Governor Philip Lowe & Co. appear to be in no rush to implement lower interest rates.
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AUD Steady Despite 17.5-Year Low For China Industrial Production
The Australian Dollar market was clearly focused elsewhere as it shrugged off a disappointing run of Chinese economic data
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Crude Oil Prices, NOK, Brace for Norges Bank, FOMC Rate Decisions
The Norwegian Krone and crude oil prices will be in for turbulent week ahead of an avalanche of central bank rate decisions against the backdrop of political volatility in the middle east.
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Crude Oil Price Surge Flirts with Breaking 11-Year Chart Barrier
Crude oil prices have challenged chart resistance capping gains since the 2008 global financial crisis having gapped higher after a drone strike on Saudi Arabia.
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Crude Oil Prices, NOK, CAD May Rally on Saudi Aramco Drone Strike
Crude oil prices, the Norwegian Krone and Canadian Dollar may rally after a drone struck Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil processing facility and sparked supply-disruption fears.
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Dow Perched Just Below Record High and EURUSD Tempting Reversal
We are within reach of a remarkable shift in the underlying markets. Some benchmarks like US indices and gold are within reach substantial highs (record and six year respectively) while others like EURUSD and GBPUSD look likely they are moving into reversal. These setups may be more closely related than many may expect with the application of volatility and sentiment a determining factor in ultimate bearing ahead.
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Fed Expected to Keep Risk Appetite Running After ECB, Trade Wars
The fundamental pressure will not ease up over the coming week, but momentum behind a distinct trend is not guaranteed. Risk appetite has benefit an improved view of trade wars and the help offered by the ECB but will these themes hold through a more crowded monetary policy gauntlet in the week ahead?
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Fed Expected to Keep Risk Appetite Running After ECB, Trade Wars
The fundamental pressure will not ease up over the coming week, but momentum behind a distinct trend is not guaranteed. Risk appetite has benefit an improved view of trade wars and the help offered by the ECB but will these themes hold through a more crowded monetary policy gauntlet in the week ahead?
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S&P 500 & DAX Fundamental Forecast
A strong week for equity markets as easing geopolitical (US/Iran) and trade (US/China) tensions support risk sentiment, and not to forget open-ended QE from the ECB to provide a helping hand.
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Saturday, 14 September 2019
Crude Oil Prices Weigh Short-Term Vs Long-Term Breakout
US crude oil prices put in for their biggest one-week drop since mid-July through Friday but that doesn’t translate into much progress in trend terms. A near-term breakout may take this coming week, but it will still be in a large range.
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Euro Weekly Outlook: EURUSD Price May Struggle Against Increased Headwinds
The ECB cut rates and re-booted QE Thursday, but the single currency ended the day higher across the board. It may prove difficult for the Euro to remain at these elevated levels going forward.
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British Pound Weekly Technical Outlook: GBPUSD May Run Further
Cable has put together a decent rally off the recent low, and there may be more to come in the week ahead with eyes on a couple of long-term trend targets.
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Gold Prices at Risk if the FOMC, Powell Underwhelm Dovish Markets
Gold prices may fall as a monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve underwhelms financial markets’ ultra-dovish interest rate path outlook.
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Australian Dollar Price Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD
The Australian Dollar technical backdrop has become less sanguine as price action shows signs of stalling. Where might AUDUSD, AUDJPY and EURAUD head next?
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US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Fed Rate Decision & Forward Guidance
The Federal Reserve meeting is likely to influence the near-term outlook for the US Dollar as the central bank is widely expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut.
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Friday, 13 September 2019
Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100, S&P 500 Forecasts for the Week
The Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 may look to melt higher ahead of a monumental Fed meeting on Wednesday, but will past peaks look to rebuke a continuation higher?
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Crude Oil Prices May Fall on FOMC, De-Escalating Iran Risks
Crude oil prices may be under pressure if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cools aggressive rate cut bets against the backdrop of deescalating Iran tensions – at least for now.
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Forex Economic Calendar Week Ahead: Fed Meeting, New Zealand GDP, Australia Jobs & More
Three central bank meetings are on the calendar over the coming week, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
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Fed Decision Will Leverage Dollar, Risk and Growth Outlook Equally
This past week ends with a broad and recently-intense risk appetite bid with many benchmarks at resistance – and the Dow a breath from record highs. Fundamentals have ushered this move, but will the Fed – can it – take us to the next phase?
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Are Investors Apprehensive About Big-Tech?
The Nasdaq has enjoyed a jog higher alongside its S&P 500 and Dow Jones counterpart this week, but investors have been apprehensive about gaining exposure via the QQQ ETF.
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Will the Yuan Weaken Further? | George Magnus | Podcast
Is China in jeopardy? Where’s the Yuan headed? And what is the chance of a recession? All this and more in our latest podcast.
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Will the Yuan Weaken Further? | George Magnus | Podcast
Is China in jeopardy? Where’s the Yuan headed? And what chance of a recession? We cover all this and more in our latest podcast.
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Canadian Dollar Rate Forecast: USD/CAD Price Rally at Risk
The Canadian Dollar pared a portion of last week’s rally against the greenback with the price now eyeing resistance. These are levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts.
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USD Price Pressure Remains After Upbeat Data Prints; Markets Await FOMC
The US Dollar struggled to lift off its overnight lows as US data prints come out ahead of estimates, with retail sales, business inventories and Consumer Sentiment beating
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Gold Prices Testing Key Trend Support as US Yields Surge - Levels for XAU/USD
Gold prices have returned to key trend support dating back to May, raising the stakes ahead of the September Fed meeting next week.
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EUR/GBP Technical Forecast: What Now After Testing Monthly Support?
On Late August EUR/GBP outlook changed from bullish to bearish. Here are the key technical levels sellers would need to consider to keep pressing the price to the downside.
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GBP/USD Surges on Irish Backstop Hopes - US Market Open
Sterling has been the notable mover, gaining over 0.9% against the greenback as Brexit optimisim underpins with the pair seeing its largest weekly gain since May.
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US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/JPY Charts and Outlook for Next Week
The Dollar may be on the verge of undergoing a broader decline in the week ahead if support soon breaks; Euro and Yen may be set up to thrive.
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Rate Cut Odds Drop for ECB, RBNZ, and RBA as Global Growth Concerns Cool - Central Bank Watch
More signs that the US-China trade was is moving towards de-escalation has market participants lowering their expectations for immediate, aggressive rate cuts by central banks.
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EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Rates Rebound Off Lows after September ECB Meeting
Euro rates have seen volatility around the September ECB meeting as outgoing President Draghi's alter ego “Super Mario” made an appearance.
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US Dollar Uptrend Under Pressure Ahead of Sales Data and FOMC Rate Decision
The US dollar basket has experienced a sharp sell-off in the last two days, putting the recent multi-week rally under pressure. US retail sales data released later today will likely make or break this move.
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USD/CAD Price: Chart May Repeat itself - Multi Months Low on the Horizon
This week USD/CAD changed course after printing its lowest level in six weeks. However, a possible seller’s comeback should not be ignored.
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Most Volatile Currencies Next Week - US Dollar, GBP/USD
Despite sharp drop in GBP/USD volatility, implied vols remain elevated with eyes on BoE meeting, while US Dollar looks towards Fed risk.
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GBPUSD Price Rallies to a Six-Week High, Brexit Latest
GBPUSD has just hit its highest level since late-July and is eyeing further gains on a combination of a marginally stronger Sterling complex and a weak US dollar.
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Dow Jones, S&P 500, NDX Technical Outlook as Record Highs Near
The market has been working its way back to record highs, but strength may soon fade with levels and momentum working against price action.
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Thursday, 12 September 2019
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Up, Downtrend Intact After ECB
The Euro found its way higher despite a big-splash boost to ECB stimulus, but the fell conspicuously short of breaking its near-term downtrend against the US Dollar.
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EUR/USD Looks to US Retail Sales, Sentiment Data After ECB
EUR/USD may rise if US retail sales and sentiment data amplify growing Fed rate cut bets after the ECB failed to meet the market’s ultra-dovish expectations.
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Stocks Again Ride High On Trade Hopes, ECB Reasssurance. Fed Up Next
Equity markets continued to forge ahead as the US President suggested he’d consider an interim deal with China and the ECB delivered on stimulus.
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Crude Oil Prices at Risk if US Economic Data Cool Fed Rate Cut Bets
Crude oil prices may fall if upbeat US retail sales and consumer confidence data cool Fed rate cut bets and sour risk appetite across financial markets.
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An Extreme EURUSD Response to ECB but a Reversal Before US Sentiment, Fed?
Despite a sharp escalation of dovish policy by the ECB, the Euro still managed a bounce that looks like a technical reversal for EURUSD. Is this a true turn before Friday’s US sentiment survey and Wednesday’s Fed decision?
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The Singapore Dollar and MAS: What is SGD and How to Trade it?
The Singapore Dollar (SGD) is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the SGD and how to trade it.
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EURUSD Fails to Test 2019 Low, RSI Flashes Bullish Signal After ECB
EURUSD fails to test the 2019-low (1.0926) following the ECB meeting, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaking out of the bearish formation carried over from June.
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EUR/GBP Rebound May be Amplified by Brexit Risks Ahead
EUR/GBP’s almost-five percent decline appears to be reversing now as the pair slowly gathers momentum to test support-now-turned resistance. Will Brexit risks amplify the pair’s rebound?
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: Fed May Fail to Match Draghi
US Dollar price action may continue to be volatile over the coming days in the aftermath of Draghi's dovish delivery from the ECB as forex traders shift focus back to the Fed’s next move.
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Rate Cut Odds Drop for ECB, RBNZ, and RBA as Global Growth Concerns Cool - Central Bank Watch
More signs that the US-China trade was is moving towards de-escalation has market participants lowering their expectations for immediate, aggressive rate cuts by central banks.
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Australian Dollar Price Forecast: AUD/USD Rally May Fizzle Out
The Australian Dollar has staged a nearly parabolic rebound in September after suffering weeks of losses in late July and early August. That said, the AUDUSD rally may start to lose steam.
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US Dollar Fueled by Rising US Yields, Falling Fed Rate Cut Odds
Given the interference of the September ECB meeting in EURUSD, the largest component of the DXY Index, traders may want to look at individual USD-pairs rather than the DXY Index.
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Swiss Franc Price Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Grinds into Trend Resistance
The Swiss Franc may find its footing here as price reverses off near-term trend resistance. These are targets and invalidations levels that matter on the USD/CHF charts.
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Negative Yielding Government Bonds – What Are They Telling Us?
There is in excess of USD 16 trillion of negative yielding government debt (bonds) trading in the market at the moment. Every day investors hold these bonds, they lose money.
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Dow Jones Jumps Toward Record as US-China Trade Tensions Thaw
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is within reach of its all-time high as the stock market climbs following US-China trade war headlines hinting at improvement in Sino-American relations.
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Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Recovery Remains Vulnerable- GLD Levels
Gold rallied more than 2.5% off the weekly lows but remains below a critical resistance pivot. These are targets & invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts.
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EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Rates Rebound Off Lows after September ECB Meeting
Euro rates have seen volatility around the September ECB meeting as outgoing President Draghi's alter ego “Super Mario” made an appearance.
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ECB Cuts Rates, Announces New QE Program, EURUSD Slumps Below 1.10
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its deposit facility rate by 10 basis points to -0.50%, in-line with market expectations, and announced that it will re-start QE from November 1.
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FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: Sluggishly Moving Higher, Has Topping Potential
The FTSE is moving higher, but in a grinding fashion; still potential for a significant topping pattern to come to light in the not-too-distant future.
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Bitcoin Price Outlook - Preparing a Move or Death by a Thousand Cuts?
From being one of - if not the - most volatile asset classes around, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently stuck in a rut in a narrow trading range and a descending triangle.
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Euro Expected to be Most Volatile Currency on ECB Risk Amid Fresh QE Package
Short term volatility in EURUSD soars to its highest level in over 2-years as ECB’s Draghi and Co. prepares to announce a fresh stimulus package.
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GBP/USD, GBP/JPY: British Pound Price Action- Uptrend Faces Key Resistance
Last week both Cable and GBP/JPY started a fresh uptrend move. Here are the chart’s key points and signals traders would need to monitor carefully
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Wednesday, 11 September 2019
Euro Braces for ECB and Draghi, US Dollar Eyes CPI Data
Global traders will be in for a turbulent day as the ECB prepares to announce its rate decision which may inspire market-wide volatility. This may be amplified by US CPI data.
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Gold, Crude Oil Prices at Risk if ECB, US CPI Cool Stimulus Hopes
Gold and crude oil prices may be pressured if the ECB underwhelms investors’ dovish hopes while higher US core inflation cools Fed rate cut expectations.
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Stocks Gain. US-China Trade Truce Sees ’Goodwill Gestures’ From Both
The United States has offered to delay new China tariffs, with China saying that it could buy more US farm products. No wonder perhaps that hopes for a trade thaw are growing.
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USDCAD Rebound to Benefit from Sticky US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Updates to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) may keep USDCAD afloat as the figures are anticipated to highlight sticky inflation.
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Euro Scenarios for ECB Decision, Implications for Dollar and Trump
There is a distinct skew in speculation over the upcoming ECB rate decision which could position opportunities on certain Euro crosses. Yet, far more important is the inevitable fall out to global markets from this event.
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Japanese Yen In Broad Retreat, US-China Trade Hopes Sap Haven Demand
The Japanese Yen finds itself unloved as markets look with hope to trade talks and central bank meetings. They have been disappointed here before of course.
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EURUSD Rate Rebound Unravels as Attention Turns to ECB Meeting
EURUSD gives back the rebound from earlier this month, with the Euro at risk of exhibiting a more bearish behavior as the ECB is expected to deliver a rate cut.
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Silver Prices Fall Back to Key Trend Support - Next Levels for XAG/USD
With the US-China trade war back in détente, US Treasury yields have jumped sharply, reducing the safe haven appeal of precious metals.
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Euro Sinks Ahead of ECB & Draghi, Implied Volatility Surges
Euro selling pressure builds as implied volatility measures skyrocket and dovish expectations fester while forex traders anxiously await the high-impact September ECB meeting slated for Thursday.
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Crude Oil Price Flops; Trump May Ease on Iran After Bolton Fallout
US Crude Oil Futures are dropping today as reports cross the wire revealing that Bolton’s prompt exit from his advisory role stemmed from a fundamental disagreement with President Trump on Iran.
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Sterling Price Outlook: British Pound Rally Stalls– GBP/USD Levels
Sterling rallied more than 3.4% off fresh yearly lows with the advance now consolidating just below resistance. These are the levels that matter on the GBP/USD charts.
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Turkish Lira Price Forecast: USD/TRY Nearing the Next Test
At the start of the week buyers took charge and since then USD/TRY has been pushing higher. Here are the market’s technical levels traders may need to monitor closely.
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Crude Oil Prices Boosted, EUR/USD Suffers Ahead of ECB - US Market Open
The Euro is underperforming ahead of tomorrow’s ECB decision. German thinktank expects the country to fall into a technical recession, while US crude stockpile drop underpins crude oil futures.
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USD Bounces, EUR/USD Dives Ahead of the ECB: Will They Deliver?
EUR/USD is putting in a firm push lower ahead of tomorrow's ECB rate decision, testing the 1.1000 psychological level.
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S&P 500, Gold Price, Crude Oil Technical Outlook & More
The S&P 500 outlook is short-term positive, gold trying to hold onto support, while crude oil checks up against trend resistance from last year.
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What is FOMO in Trading? Characteristics of a FOMO Trader
How do you beat FOMO, or Fear Of Missing Out, for more consistent trading? Read on to find out.
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CAD Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, EUR/CAD
USD/CAD risks further downside as pair tests critical support, while EUR/CAD awaits ECB risk.
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Prop Trading and Managing Volatility | Morad Askar | Podcast
How do you manage the madness of volatility? Seasoned equities and futures trader Morad Askar discusses this and more in our podcast.
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Brexit Latest: Scottish Civil Court Rules UK Parliament Suspension ’Unlawful’
In another potential blow to UK PM Boris Johnson, Scotland’s highest civil court has ruled that PM Johnson’s suspension of Parliament (prorogation) was unlawful.
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USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Price Forecast: A Rally at Risk of Reversal
Last week USD/CHF and EUR/CHF rallied due to Swiss Franc weakness. Here is how buyers could keep pushing the price higher, with the key levels they need to keep an eye on.
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DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts: Running into Resistance and ECB
The German and French benchmarks continue to rally in impressive fashion, bringing resistance levels into focus just ahead.
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Gold Price Weakens on Trade War Optimism, Mixed Market Signals?
Gold hit a one-month low yesterday and despite erasing some of these losses still trades below $1,500/oz. as market appetite for risk increases on growing US-China trade war optimism.
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Tuesday, 10 September 2019
US Dollar May Rebound if ECB, Trade Wars Spook Markets
A greater tolerance for risk-taking has buoyed sentiment and pushed haven-linked assets like USD lower. Will ECB commentary and trade war fears reverse the pullback in the US Dollar?
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Crude Oil Prices Fell as Trump Fired Iran Hawk Bolton. Now What?
Crude oil prices fell as US President Trump fired hawkish National Security Advisor John Bolton. A barrage of back-to-back event risk now looms ahead.
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Stocks Gain As Markets Hope For Dovish ECB, But May Be Optimistic
Global investors seem to think they’re going to get reassurance from the European Central Bank that loose policy is here to stay. Consensus on that may be hard to reach at the ECB itself.
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EURUSD Isn’t the Only Market Facing the Calm Before the ECB Storm
There is plenty of concern to go around over the course of trade wars and Google searches for ‘recession’ clearly keeps core growth front and center. Yet, it is difficult to direct traders’ attention anywhere other than the ECB and monetary policy over the next 24 hours.
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How Crude Oil Prices React to Weather-Induced Disruption Fears
With increasing volatility in weather patterns, how might storms, hurricanes and floods rattle the supply chain for petroleum-based products and impact crude oil prices?
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ASX 200 Tires, But US-China Trade Hopes May Prevent Sharp Falls
The ASX 200 has regained an important resistance zone but looks far from comfortable there. While retracement looks likely, fundamental news-flow may rescue the bulls.
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Gold Prices Risk Larger Pullback on Hopes for US-China Trade Deal
Recent price action in gold points to a larger pullback as the precious metal continues to carve a series of lower highs and lows.
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Glimmer of Hope on Trade Wars, Recession, and Monetary Policy Capitulation?
Top fundamental influence this week will shift from constant recession and trade war fears towards monetary policy thanks to a very particular event.
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Apple Event: AAPL Stock Price Tends to Rise After iPhone Launch
The Apple iPhone launch date is among the biggest events of the year for the company and AAPL investors. However, US-China trade wars also complicate the outlook for the company.
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Morning Star Candlestick: A Forex Trader’s Guide
The Morning Star pattern is a popular reversal pattern in the forex market. Learn what the Morning Star pattern is and how to trade it
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Canadian Dollar Price Chart: USD/CAD Breakdown Plummets into Support
The Canadian Dollar is on a tear with USD plummeting 1.8% off fresh multi-month highs. Here’s initial support. These are the levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts.
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Gold Price Bullish Breakout Fails, Looks to Trend Support as US Treasury Yields Rise
Gold prices have broken key moving averages that have served as support for over three months, setting up a challenge of the overall uptrend since the end of May.
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AUD/USD, NZD/USD Price Technical Forecast: Facing Key Resistances
Last week both AUD/USD and NZD/USD closed with significant gains due to US dollar weakness. Here are the key levels for both pairs that traders need to monitor
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Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Lead the Way
The Chinese Yuan (via USDCNH) has the highest 5-day and 6-month correlations with bitcoin prices among emerging market FX at 0.95 and 0.73, respectively.
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GBP/USD Volatility Drops Sharply, USD/JPY Rises on BoJ Sources - US Market Open
The Pound has edged up 0.2% and continues to hover around its best level in over a month as imminent Brexit risks have been diminished. USD/JPY lifted on BoJ easing sources.
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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, GBP/USD
The US Dollar is holding at a key zone of resistance ahead of the ECB on Thursday and the FOMC next Wednesday.
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Market Sentiment Improves | Webinar
Appetite is perking up for riskier assets as trader confidence improves, prompting a move away from safe havens.
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Dollar Charts: USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCAD Technical Analysis & More
USDJPY is running into resistance, EURUSD in between levels, while the USDCAD long-term chart holds potential that could kick in soon.
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EURGBP Price Outlook Tracks ECB Monetary Policy and Brexit News
Two weak currencies that are currently looking ahead to potentially defining moments that will provide a clear signal for both. How will they compare against each other?
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CAD Price & Crude Oil Charts: USD/CAD May Reverse Higher as Support Holds
Yesterday, USD/CAD printed its lowest level nearly in six weeks. In turn Brent oil price rallied today to its highest level since early August 9. Here is how both markets could perform in the few coming days
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Gold Price and Silver Outlook: Will First Levels of Support Hold?
Gold and silver have come off a good amount in recent sessions, which has the first levels of support in focus; bounce anticipated, but will it last?
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Sterling (GBP) Price Bolstered by Strong Jobs and Earnings Data
A strong UK jobs and wages release underpinned the British Pound but as has been the case for the last three years, Brexit news and rumor will decide the next move for the pair.
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Crude Oil Price Analysis: Oil Boosted by New Saudi Energy Minister, Eyes on OPEC report
Crude oil prices extended its recent winning streak with Brent crude futures trading at roughly 6-week highs. New Saudi Energy Ministers signals that OPEC+ alliance will be in place for the long term.
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Monday, 9 September 2019
Retail Shorts Jump 30% as GBPUSD Claws Back from 2019 Low
The recent rebound in GBPUSD appears to be spurring a shift in retail interest as net-short positions jump 30% from the previous week.
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GBP Shrugs at Brexit Drama, Euro Looks to ECB. SEK Braces for CPI
GBP remained relatively indifferent to news that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s motion for an election was once again defeated. Euro trading may be thin as traders wait for the ECB rate decision.
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Gold Prices May Bounce as Markets Eye ECB Meeting, US CPI Data
Gold prices may bounce after sinking to a four-week low as markets turn cautious ahead of the ECB monetary policy announcement and US inflation data.
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Stocks Mixed. Weak China PPI Inflation Takes Gloss Off Trade Hopes
A clearly more conciliatory tone for US-China trade relations kept the overall equity backdrop quite positive, but Chinese factory gate prices remain weak.
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Crude Oil Prices May Find Support From Escalating Iran Tensions
Crude oil prices may get a boost if Iran-US tensions continue to escalate as Tehran pushes the legal parameters outlined in the 2015 nuclear agreement.
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Dollar Starts Week with Strong Bullish Gap but Limited Hope for Trend Now
We entered the new trading week with a drift higher in the S&P 500 as a baseline for sentiment while the Dollar surged with a gap that held no immediate follow through. Full attention is on flimsy sentiment and an ECB decision.
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AUD/USD Hits Session Low. China CPI Tops Forecasts, PPI Wilts
The Australian Dollar saw a modest ‘risk off’ move in the wake of Chinese inflation numbers which saw consumer inflation stay up while factory gate prices were lower again.
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EURUSD Forecast: Monthly Opening Range on Radar Ahead of ECB Meeting
EURUSD holds the monthly opening range ahead of the ECB meeting, but fresh updates from the Governing Council are likely to alter the near-term outlook for the Euro.
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Australian Dollar Forecast: AUDUSD & AUDJPY Eye Trend Resistance
The Australian Dollar has been on a tear higher so far this month as trade war tensions ease, but how long might the rally in AUDUSD and AUDJPY last?
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Bitcoin Forecast: Price Range Constricts as BTC Awaits Breakout
Bitcoin has posted a series of lower highs and higher lows since mid-June and as technical levels look to strangle price action, BTC may be due for a breakout.
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Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR Lead the Way
The Chinese Yuan (via USDCNH) has the highest 5-day and 6-month correlations with bitcoin prices among emerging market FX at 0.95 and 0.73, respectively.
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US Dollar Price Volatility Report: GBP/USD Brexit Rally May Stall
The British Pound has soared since printing its recent bottom below the 1.2000 handle, but GBPUSD could whipsaw lower as Brexit risks linger and currency volatility remains elevated.
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Emerging Markets Crisis Monitor - Seven Factors Traders Should Watch
All currencies are not the same; emerging market FX trades differently than developed market FX.
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Weekly Trade Levels: US Dollar, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, Gold & SPX
Webinar highlighting active trade setups we’re tracking into the start of the week. Here are the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the technical charts.
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Weekly Euro Forecast: Rate Cut Due at September ECB Meeting as Growth Stalls
Traders should be on the lookout to see if the “whatever it takes,” Super Mario version of President Draghi shows up at the September ECB meeting this week.
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Dow Jones, Dax 30 Technical Forecast: Prices Eying a Test of Monthly High
Last week the Dow Jones and Dax 30 printed their highest levels in four weeks. Here are the levels traders may need to keep an eye on.
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Gold Price Outlook: Gold Grasps for Support Ahead of ECB, FOMC
Gold prices have pulled back to a Fibonacci support level and continue to catch bids above the 1500 marker as traders await ECB and FOMC rate decisions.
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GBP/USD Shoots Higher, AUD/USD Breaks Resistance - US Market Open
Sterling trading at its best level in 6-weeks against the Euro and US Dollar as Brexit sentiment and UK GDP supports. AUD/USD breaks resistance as global stimulus hopes underpins.
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EURUSD and Pound Attempt Reversal from Multi-Year Lows, S&P 500 Close to Record High
The first week of trade following the transition out of the 'summer doldrums' maintained an elevated clip of volatility but the range of key assets seemed to finally push stubborn ranges. That said, will the Dollar's reversal lower and Pound higher bear fruit into a full-size swing? What about the S&P 500's and Dow's bid for fresh record highs, so close at hand?
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Dow Rises and Gold Falls on Trade War Enthusiasm, ECB Decision Top Event Ahead
Though tentative, market participants latched on to nascent signs that trade war conditions may improve and the threat of recession is not as imminent as many fear. This would be the perfect opportunity for monetary policy to further leverage the uneven swell in sentiment. The ECB will start a run of key policy meetings, but its decision in particular will echo through the markets.
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Sterling (GBP) Turnaround on Data Beat and Brexit Commentary - Webinar
After opening the session in negative territory, GBPUSD performed a quick U-turn after UK manufacturing, industrial production and monthly GDP data all beat expectations. And over in Ireland, UK PM Boris Johnson was in a more conciliatory mood.
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GBP/USD Rise Fuelled by Short Squeeze, EUR/USD Bearish Bets Rise Sharply – COT Report
Weekly changes in G10 FX positioning sees investors sharply increase their bearish bets on the Euro ahead of the ECB meeting. GBP/USD rise fuelled by short squeeze.
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Crude Oil Technical Outlook: Facing Familiar Resistance
Both the WTI and Brent crude oil contracts are up against an area of resistance that has put a cap on advances, a turn down soon is anticipated.
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US Dollar Uptrend May Return on Haven Demand, Dovish ECB, CPI Rise
The US Dollar may be back on offense after last week’s retreat, buoyed by haven demand as well as a dovish ECB and a fourth month of gains in core inflation.
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Euro Outlook Ahead of ECB: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Price –What After The U-Turn?
Last week, Euro firmed slightly against US Dollar and Japanese Yen. However, it might be a bit early to talk about buyers taking charge. Here are the key levels EUR/USD and EUR/JPY would encounter in the few coming days.
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Sterling (GBP) Price Drifts Lower on Brexit Uncertainty, Hard Data Flow Next
GBPUSD opens the week on the backfoot as Brexit rumours and news flow continue to keep traders on the sidelines. UK data on deck with a look at monthly GDP.
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Sunday, 8 September 2019
Gold Price Outlook Mired by Bearish RSI Signal
The price of gold stands at risk of facing a larger pullback as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snaps the upward trend from earlier this year.
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Euro Gaps Lower vs British Pound Ahead of ECB, Brexit Volatility
The British Pound and the Euro will be closely watching how Brexit negotiations unfold as the October 31 deadline approaches.
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SEK, NOK Brace for ECB Rate Decision, Brexit Turmoil, Iran Risks
The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone are in for a turbulent week ahead of the ECB rate decision, Brexit uncertainty and key meetings across the world.
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Iron Ore Prices Slide On Trade War Fears, AUD-Watchers Take Note
Australian Dollar watchers should keep a close eye on iron ore prices. They fell sharply last month, albeit from very high levels
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AUDUSD Rebound Unfazed by Dismal China Trade Balance as PBOC Cuts RRR
The breakout in AUDUSD appears to be unfazed by dismal data prints coming out of China, with the exchange rate preserving the higher highs and lows from last week.
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Weekly Euro Forecast: Rate Cut Due at September ECB Meeting as Growth Slows
Traders should be on the lookout to see if the “whatever it takes,” Super Mario version of President Draghi shows up at the September ECB meeting this week.
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The Singapore Dollar and MAS: What is SGD and How to Trade it?
The Singapore Dollar (SGD) is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the SGD and how to trade it.
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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference
The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...
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The Nikkei 225 has bounced at important long-term support and staged a modest turnaround. However, its down-channel endures and will need to...
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AUD prices remain hesitant ahead of the FOMC announcement later today. US PPI will also contribute to recent economic data. from DailyFX -...