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Monday, 20 May 2019

COT Report: Japanese Yen and Euro Shorts Collapse, USD Longs Reduced

USD net long positioning cut by $4.6bln vs G10 FX, led by a sizeable liquidation in JPY and Euro shorts.

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GBPUSD Price Rattled by Heightened Brexit Fears, European Elections Near

Sterling opens the week slightly better bid against the US dollar but the outlook for GBP remains uncertain as Brexit turmoil continues to feed bearish sentiment.

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GBPUSD, NZDUSD & GBPNZD Chart Set-ups to Watch

A couple of interesting developments on GBP and NZD charts versus USD and against one another worth paying attention to this week.

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Gold Price Sell-Off Continues, Silver Price Hits a Six-Month Low

Gold continues to fall and is now around $30 lower from last Tuesday’s recent high, while Silver hit lows last seen in December last year.

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Sunday, 19 May 2019

AUD May Trim Election Gains as Yen Rebounds on Powell Speech

The Australian Dollar may trim gains scored courtesy of the federal election outcome while the anti-risk Yen gains as comments from Fed Chair Powell spook markets.

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Currencies May See Wild Swings if Slow Growth Breaks CLO Market

Currency markets may be battered by breakneck volatility if a slowdown in global economic growth triggers a collapse in the fragile market for collateralized loan obligations (CLOs).

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US Dollar May Gain Versus SGD, PHP on Neutral Fed, Trade War Fears

The US Dollar may accelerate gains versus the Singapore Dollar on US-China trade war escalation fears. Neutral reiterance from the Fed risks extending USD/MYR and USD/PHP uptrends.

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Singapore Guns For London, NY In Forex Boost, Watch Its Progress

Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order.

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Crude Oil Price Rise on US-Iran Spat, OPEC Output Cuts May Fizzle

Crude oil price rose as US President Trump threatened Iran while OPEC mulled extending its output cut scheme, but a speech from Fed Chair Powell may see the move unravel.

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GBP Downtrend Losing Control on Cloudy Brexit Outlook, Yen May Gain

The GBP/USD downtrend eyes November lows on a more uncertain Brexit outlook. Reports that US-China trade talks stalled may boost the anti-risk Japanese Yen as the Nikkei 225 falters.

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Australian Dollar Up as Morrison Unexpectedly Triumphs in Election

The Australian Dollar rose against all its major currency counterparts after the incumbent Liberal party unexpectedly triumphed in its country’s federal election.

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Weekly Trading Forecast: Dollar and S&P 500 Still Within Range of Major Highs

Volatility stirred this past week, but it wouldn’t be applied to a clear direction for the benchmark assets. With the Dow and S&P 500 unsure of their direction having dropped back from record highs and the Dollar fresh off a 5-day rally to within reach of its own two-year high, technical traders are focused on whether we see break or reversal. What they should really contemplate is the capacity of follow through.

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Weekly Trading Forecast: Trade War Sentiment Fluctuates Violently, Sabotages Risk Trends

While there has been plenty of discussion surrounding growth forecasts and political risks moving forward, the most active fundamental theme remains trade war developments. We had clear points of improvement on that front this past week with a delay in US auto tariffs and the lifting of metals import taxes to smooth the USMCA deal. That said, the souring mood between the US and China seemed to keep sentiment suppressed. Does this continue?

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Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 Technical Forecast

The Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 faced a week filled with volatility. As fundamental themes continue to simmer, technical levels will become all the more critical.

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S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

US/China continue to pressure equity markets, focus turns towards Fed Chair Powell. DAX finds relief from delay in EU auto import tariffs.

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Saturday, 18 May 2019

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook: Euro Weakness to Remain the Theme

The Euro is poised to trade down to last month’s low or lower in the days ahead as the Dollar looks to reassert itself, however; expect some bumps along the way…

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Euro Braces for Volatility Ahead of EU Elections, ECB Minutes

The Euro will likely experience its most volatile week year-to-date as the ECB and Fed release their meeting minutes and the EU undergoes the most consequential vote in its history.

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Gold Price Forecast: The Better Precious Metal Shows Its Mettle

Gold has continued to rally in non-US Dollar terms, and even against the price of Silver. While ultimate upside may be limited in USD terms, the environment continues to ripen for further XAU strength.

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Gold Price Outlook Fixated on Trade War Risk, FOMC Minutes

Spot gold prices eye safe-haven bids in response to US China trade war risk, but XAUUSD could face headwinds if the May FOMC minutes due for release next week reveal a hawkish Fed.

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