Sunday, 30 June 2019

Upbeat German Unemployment Report to Curb EURUSD Losses

Fresh data prints coming out of the Euro area may curb the recent decline in EURUSD as German Unemployment is expected to hold flat in June.


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Asian Stocks Applaud US-China Trade Truce, FX Not Quite So Sure

Asia Pacific stock markets made gains, led by China after the weekend’s better trade news out of Osaka. However, the economic data remain very weak.


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Gold Prices May Extend Drop from Chart Barrier as US Dollar Gains

Gold prices may continue lower after being dramatically rejected at chart resistance as the mood sours across global financial markets, boosting the US Dollar.


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NOK Eyes Crude Oil Prices, SEK Braces for Riksbank Decision

The Norwegian Krone and Swedish Krona will be on edge ahead of the Riksbank rate decision and crude oil related risks as the global growth outlook nauseates markets.


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Wilting AUD Slips Further As China Caixin PMi Misses Key 50 Level

AUD/USD was already fading as markets doubted the US-China trade truce's substance. News that Chinese manufacturing output contracted last month didn't help.


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Crude Oil Price Outlook Hinges on OPEC Meeting Following G20 Summit

The upcoming OPEC meeting may keep crude afloat even though the price of oil fails to extend the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week.


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AUD and Stocks Up on US-China Trade War Truce, But for How Long?

The AUD, NZD and equities rose early into Monday’s trading session after the G20 summit ended with a US-China trade war truce, though a gloomy fundamental outlook may undermine the rally.


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Yen May Sink as US-China Restart Trade Talks, Can Crude Oil Rise?

The Japanese Yen may weaken as markets digest US-China restarting trade talks after the G20 Summit. Will this offset crude oil price declines as EU cooled Iran supply disruption fears?


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Dollar, Gold, Equities 3Q Forecast Involves Reversal Threats, Destabilizing Themes

We are heading into the third quarter and second half of 2019 with markets poised for significant movement. That said, it isn't clear whether the systemic move will be a sustained charge for the likes of the Dollar, S&P 500 and gold or conversely a disruptive reversal. What is clear is that the market does not seem to fully appreciate the risk associated to the systemic fundamental risks being worked through or the volatility that they can spark throughout the financial system.


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Equities Q3 Forecast: Stock Markets Aim Higher Balancing Trade Wars and Monetary Policy

Global shares rebounded in the first quarter as dovish monetary policy was able to overcome global growth concerns and US-China trade war fears were reduced by the prospects of a deal.


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Saturday, 29 June 2019

British Pound Q3 Forecast: Sterling Fundamentals - Volatility Set to Rise as Brexit D-Day Nears

Sterling (GBP) is likely to become more volatile as the clock ticks down to the latest Brexit deadline - October 31st.


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Yen Supported by Two Huge Uncertainties; USDJPY Downtrend May Extend

The Japanese Yen has headed into a new calendar quarter on a high note, with its customary haven role underscoring demand which has brought USD/JPY down to its 2019 lows.


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US Dollar Q3 Forecast: Dollar Feeling Weight of Fed, GDP and Trade Wars

The US Dollar was heading into the second half of 2019 in an uncomfortable state of uncertainty and it seems the technical boundaries are starting to come under existential strain.


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Q3’19 Euro Forecast Sees Economic, Political Uncertainties Back on the Rise

Euro technical positioning looks inconclusive at the mid-year mark as political issues have been a slow burn in Europe over the past several months while the economic growth picture in Europe could be characterized as charitably-mild.�


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Friday, 28 June 2019

Dollar, Dow, Gold a Cross Roads of G-20, Holiday Trade, Pent Up Anxiety

Reversals and breakouts seem to be developing hand-in-hand across a variety of financial benchmarks. Will the G20, growth or NFPs set markets in motion or do we wait for a more decisive spark?


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Crude Oil Price: Will Global Growth Fears Overwhelm OPEC?

Crude oil price outlook over the third quarter looks set to be broadly overwhelmed by slowing global GDP growth, yet OPEC+ supply cuts and political risks pose upside risks.


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EURGBP Has Matched a Record Weekly Rally as Resistance Approaches, Now What?

There aren’t many opportunities in the market that are reliably divorced from complicated systemic matters like trade wars. EURGBP certainly avoids that them and it has a remarkable technical picture.


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Forex Volatility Highlights EUR/USD, USD/CAD & AUD/JPY Next Week

Currency traders may find interest in spot EUR/USD, USD/CAD & AUD/JPY next week as forex volatility looks to climb on the back of heightened event risk and rising uncertainties.


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Gold Price Q3 Forecast: Gold Outlook Bullish on Imminent Fed Rate Cut

Gold took out the 2014 high ($1392) after the Federal Reserve altered the forward guidance for monetary policy.


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Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30 Weekly Technical Forecast

With a high-stakes weekend ahead, here are the technical levels to watch for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and DAX 30 in the event of a trade war breakthrough - or breakdown.


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Fed Rate Cuts in 2019; RBA Rate Cut in July; ECB Rate Cut Coming? - Central Bank Weekly

With the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan this weekend, interest rate markets have taken on a different shape in the final days of June.


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S&P 500 Eyes First Weekly Decline Since May as G20 Summit Kicks Off

World leaders meet for the annual G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan this weekend as market participants eye talks between Trump and Xi to gain insight on the ongoing trade battle between the two countries


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New Zealand Dollar Price Chart: Kiwi Rally Testing 2019 Open

Kiwi is the top performer against the US Dollar this week with a rally of nearly 2% into the June close. Here are the levels that matter on the NZD/USD price charts.


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Crude Oil Price Caught at Resistance Ahead of Key OPEC Meeting

The crude oil bounce may have met its match as a confluent level of resistance has held the highs ahead of a key OPEC meeting next week.


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Gold Price Weekly Outlook: XAU/USD Rally Losing Steam into July Trade

Gold prices are poised for a sixth consecutive weekly advance with rally vulnerable int the start of July. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.


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USDCAD Tests 2019 Low, USD Pullbacks on Month-End Rebalancing - US Market Open

Yet again ranges are relatively tight ahead of the G20 summit. USDCAD bounces off 2019 low, eyes on BoC outlook survey.


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Double Top Pattern: A Forex Trader’s Guide

Double top chart patterns are very popular among forex traders. Learn how to spot double tops and how to use them to plan your trades.


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US Dollar Price Outlook for Q3 in EUR/USD, USD/JPY

A riveting Q2 is nearing its end, but can the US Dollar breakdown that began in June continue into the second-half of the year?


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EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY – Charts for Next Week

Looking ahead to next week, there are a few developments worth paying attention to in both majors and cross-rates.


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S&P 500: Retail Trader data shows 29.5% of traders are Net-Long

Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current US 500 price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.


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Canadian Dollar Analysis: USD/CAD Why the Sellers May Need to Watch This Price

Since June 18 USD/CAD has lost nearly 2.3% of its value. Here are the levels where the pair may rebound or could extend its losses


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Could Silver Price Soon Start Outperforming Gold Price?

Silver has been a laggard for years, with the ratio to gold dwindling since the 2011 highs; now that gold has broken out silver has fallen further behind, but that could change soon.


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Weaker Dollar Sends EURUSD Higher, Eurozone Core CPI Back Above 1%

EURUSD continues to climb as fresh remarks from Donald Trump about international trade sends the USD lower across the board


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Crude Oil Price Analysis: OPEC Set to Extend Production Cuts

OPEC and Non-OPEC ministers will convene from July 1st and 2nd where expectations are for oil production cuts to be extended throughout the remainder of 2019.


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Thursday, 27 June 2019

EURUSD Eyes G20 Summit, Xi Trump Meeting and US Data

EURUSD tenses up ahead of the G20 summit in Osaka Japan where US-China trade talks will be under close scrutiny against the backdrop of critical US economic data.


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Asian Stocks Fall , Global Investors Eye Trump-Xi G20 Meet Nervously

Falls weren’t huge for Asia’s big-player stock indexes but there was little appetite for bullish bravery either as a long-awaited encounter gets very near.


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EURGBP Could Break 1-Month Rising Support, Upside Momentum Fading

EURGBP 2-month uptrend may break as underlying upward momentum is showing increasing weakness as fundamental headwinds continue blowing against the Euro.


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EURUSD and Risk Asset Wind Up Before G-20 Summit

The Dollar has wavered in the middle of a breakdown and risk trends have lost traction immediately after the S&P 500 has set a record high. This is what anxiety in a key event like the G-20 summit looks like.


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Nikkei 225’s Young Revival Shows Signs Of Topping Out Already

The Nikkei 225 has bounced this month and topped its previous significant high. However it has retreated since.Bulls may not have long to get things back on track.


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EURUSD Rate to Stay Afloat on Sticky Euro Zone CPI

Updates to the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) may keep EURUSD afloat as the core rate of inflation is expected to pick up in June.


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FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD

The US Dollar has finally found some element of support. But with the Q3 open fast approaching, is this but a blip in the build of a bigger-picture bearish theme?


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Australian Dollar Price Chart: Aussie Rally at Risk into June Close

Aussie rallied seven of the past eight days with price now probing a key resistance zone into the June close. Here are the levels that matter on the AUD/USD price chart.


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Euro Weekly Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Eyes Yearly Open into Q3

Euro has rallied more than 2.7% off the yearly lows with the advance now testing initial resistance targets. Here are the levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart.


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Palladium Price: Upwards Trend May be Looking to Correct Lower

Palladium price pulled back from three months high. Here are the key technical levels to consider


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EURUSD Price Outlook: Trend Higher Likely to Persist



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EURCHF and USDCHF Bounce as Switzerland Looks Set to Block Trading of Swiss Shares on EU Exchanges

CHF pairs edged higher on Thursday afternoon as a report from major news-wire seemed to suggest that the Swiss Foreign minister had confirmed the ban on Swiss Shares from European Exchanges


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US Dollar Muted, OPEC Set to Extend Oil Cuts, Gold Prices Tests $1400 - US Market Open

Relative calm across FX markets with major G10 pairs trading in subdued fashion ahead of the G20 summit. While a trade truce appears likely, a trade deal remains uncertain in the near term.


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Bitcoin: Retail Trader data shows 77.3% of traders are Net-Long

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Bitcoin-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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Spot Gold: Retail Trader data shows 60.8% of traders are Net-Long

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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EURUSD Remains Strong Despite Mixed Data From Eurozone, Focus on G-20 Meeting

EURUSD remains near 3-month highs as investors brush off lacklustre Eurozone inflation and economic outlook data ahead of G-20 meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.


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Crude Oil Rally Runs into Resistance - Can Bulls Continue to Push?

Crude oil prices have continued their ascent after finding support two weeks ago; but the 60-level came in yesterday to help hold resistance.


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How Monetary and Fiscal Policy Can Amplify or Stave Off Crises

During the Great Recession, governments and central banks worldwide moved to reverse the collapse of the global economy. Here’s how fiscal and monetary policy cancounter – or worsen – economic slumps.


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GBP Sterling Price Outlook: GBP/JPY Exhausted Bearish Momentum

After printing its lowest level in over five months GBP/JPY stuck in a sideways move. Here are the key chart points the buyers may consider for a possible start of an upside trend.


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Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USDCAD, CADJPY

USDCAD could extend losses towards 2019 low on a break below 200WMA, while CADJPY faces key resistance zone as bearish pressure abates.


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Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

Stocks have come off a bit since trading around record levels; keeping rolling lower or turn back higher?


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Wednesday, 26 June 2019

US Dollar, Stocks Eye Fed Financial Stress Test, Iran Tension

The US Dollar and stocks will be closely waiting for the results of the Fed’s annual bank stress test to see if underlying vulnerabilities are posing a systemic risk. US tensions with Iran are expected to escalate.


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Stocks Rise on US-China Trade Truce? INR at Risk, Trump Eyes India

The Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite rallied on bets of a US-China trade truce, but Trump is turning his attention to India which risks sinking the Rupee. US Dollar may rise ahead.


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Philippine Peso, Singapore Dollar Nearing Trend-Defining Support

The Philippine Peso and Singapore Dollar are a step closer towards testing major trend-defining support. As USDINR looks to resume its downtrend, USDMYR is stuck within its own.


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NZDUSD Rate Breaks Out of Monthly Opening Range Following RBNZ

NZDUSD stands at risk for a larger correction following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting as the exchange rate breaks out of the monthly opening range.


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USD/JPY Downtrend Dominates But Could Face Near-Term Test

The Japanese Yen remains in the ascendant over the US Dollar but fundamental risk appetite could see that challenged in coming sessions.


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NZD Slips As ANZ Survey Shows Business Confidence Hit Again

The New Zealand Dollar was pressured by news that businesses in its home country are still feeling pretty gloomy about their prospects, a situation that now looks deeply entrenched


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Gold Price Rally Stalls as Fed Officials Endorse ’Insurance Cut’

The near-term rally in the price of gold appears to have stalled as Federal Reserve officials endorse an “insurance cut” amid the ongoing shift in US trade policy.


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BRL, Ibovespa Eye Inflation Data - Will it Tilt the BCB’s Outlook?

The Brazilian Real and benchmark Ibovespa equity index will have their eyes on the FGV inflation data to see whether an underperformance will fuel rate cut expectations.


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Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD and NZD/USD

An update on near-term trade setups we've been tracking in Loonie (USD/CAD) and Kiwi (NZD/USD). These are the targets and invalidation levels that matter this week.


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Loonie Weekly Price Outlook: USD/CAD Breakdown Targets Yearly Lows

Loonie is on a tear with and outside-weekly reversal off resistance last week now probing four-month lows. These are the levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly chart.


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Platinum Price Key Resistance Levels to Watch

Last week Platinum created a Higher high, nonetheless continued trendless. Here are the key chart points to consider for a possible start of a bullish trend


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US Dollar Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

The US Dollar has caught a bid after what became a brutal month of June. With the Q3 open now just around the corner, can USD bears continue to push?


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Oil Price Chart: Crude Rally Rips into Key Resistance - Trade Levels

Oil prices are attempting a seventh consecutive daily advance with crude now approaching critical resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the WTI price chart.


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EURUSD Eyes 200DMA, USD Bounce May be Temporary - US Market Open

USD remains firm as uber-dove Bullard reigns in expectations of a 50bps Fed rate cut. Euro eyes 200DMA, while NZD gains as RBNZ maintains OCR at 1.5%.


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Gold Price Outlook: Gold Snaps Back from Highs, Support in Sight

Gold prices have had a strong month of June. But, resistance has finally come into play that might elicit a deeper pullback. Might the pullback become something more?


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USDJPY: Net-Long Positions Continue to Increase

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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Dow Jones, DAX, Gold Price, Crude Oil Technical Outlook & More

Stocks are weakening here a bit, pullback or more? Gold looks set to digest the big run its been lately, while crude oil may also be due for weakness soon too.


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S&P 500 Analysis - Mnuchin Jawbones S&P 500 Higher Ahead of G20 Summit

G20 Summit ceasefire US and China on trade front appears likely, while Mnuchin jawbones S&P 500 higher, however, we have seen this before.


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EU-Swiss Exchange Battle Continues: London Prepares to Delist Swiss Shares

Swiss companies may be delisted from London exchanges as soon as next week if no formal agreement is reached between the EU and Switzerland by June 30


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Developed Market Equities with Andrew Milligan | Podcast

Our latest podcast covers developed market vs emerging market equities, populism and trading and fundamental analysis.


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EURO and US Dollar May Continue Falling Against Swiss Franc EUR/CHF, USD/CHF Price Outlook

Since a month and a half EUR and USD have been losing value against CHF. Here are the key levels the sellers need to consider in order to keep pressing the price lower.


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FTSE 100 Outlook – Battle at Resistance Could Soon End in Higher Prices

The FTSE is trading at a trend-line running down off the record high, but so far price action is acting well and suggests a pop on through resistance may be near.


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Sterling (GBP) Technical Analysis Overview: GBPUSD, EURGBP

GBPUSD remains rangebound, while scope increases for test of the psychological 0.9000 handle for EURGBP.


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Tuesday, 25 June 2019

EURUSD Retreat May be Mitigated by US Data - GBP Eyeing BoE

EURUSD’s retreat from resistance may be alleviated if US economic data underperforms and boosts rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, GBP will be eyeing commentary from BoE officials.


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S&P 500 Topping? Stocks Eye US Durable Goods Orders for Volatility

The S&P 500 could be in the process of topping based on bearish technical signals with equities eyeing US Durable Goods Orders after a mixed Asia Pacific trading session.


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Oil Prices Risk Larger Recovery as OPEC+ Leaders Meet at G20 Summit

Crude looks poised for a larger rebound ahead of the G20 summit as the price of oil extends the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week.


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S&P 500 and Dow Extreme Quiet vs Record Highs, Dollar Continues Dive

An unmistakable shift has occurred in risk-dependent assets and even key benchmarks outside of this standard current. Is a full-blown US equity and Dollar reversal underway or is this just the temporary transition between fundamental themes?


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ASX 200 Retreats From 12-Year Peaks But Key Support Still Holds

The ASX 200 is still within striking distance of its all-time peak but investors will need time to assess if its most recent pullback is mere consolidation or something more serious.


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BRL, Ibovespa Fall on Copom Minutes - Pension Reform Vote Ahead

The Brazilian Real and benchmark Ibovespa equity index ended in the red after the central bank meeting minutes left traders feeling queasy and risk averse. When is the pension reform vote?


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NZDUSD Uptrend Holds as RBNZ Fails to Excite August Rate Cut Bets

The New Zealand Dollar rose as an RBNZ rate hold disappointed tepid cut expectations and failed to significantly fuel further dovish bets, leaving NZDUSD eyeing US-China trade talks.


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RBNZ Preview: NZDUSD Rate to Eye Monthly High on Wait-and-See Policy

The RBNZ interest rate decision may fuel a larger rebound in NZDUSD as the central bank is expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.50%.


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S&P 500 Slips as Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales Dissapoint

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index missed expectations in June as consumers become rattled by a reawakening of global trade tensions, coupled with a miss in new home sales.


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US Dollar Forecast Undercut by US-China Trade War, Fed Rate Outlook

The US Dollar has been dragged lower by skyrocketing Fed rate cut odds: markets are now pricing in a 97% chance of two 25-bps rate cut in 2019 and a 75% chance of three rate cuts this year.


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The Head and Shoulders Pattern: A Trader’s Guide

Learn how to use the Head and Shoulders pattern to spot trend reversals on forex and stock charts.


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EU-Swiss Exchange Battle Continues: London Prepares to Delist Swiss Shares

Swiss companies may be delisted from London exchanges as soon as next week if no formal agreement is reached between the EU and Switzerland by June 30


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Japanese Yen at Flash Crash Levels, Gold Most Overbought in 30yrs- US Market Open

A mixed bag for the greenback ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech (1800BST). USDJPY breaks below 107.00, while gold posts fresh cycle highs.


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Crude Oil Price Gets Caught at Key Resistance: Oil Levels to Know

Crude Oil Prices turned with a vengeance in late-April but found support in early-June. A rally last week showed around FOMC, has the trend turned again?


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GBP/USD: Net-Long Positions decrease by 20.2% from Last Week

Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.


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US Dollar Sentiment Hit by Rate Cut Talk | Webinar

Market confidence generally has been damaged by the US-Iran dispute, with sentiment in the US Dollar hurt particularly hard by ongoing talk of US rate cuts this year.


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Dollar May Bounce: EURUSD, USDCAD, GBPUSD Charts & More

The Dollar appears in trouble in the big-picture but that doesn’t mean it won’t have bounces; this could set traders up with opportunities to make bearish bets.


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More Fed Members Turn Dovish, Focus on Chairman Powell’s Monetary Policy Discussion

Markets eye Fed comments to come in the following weeks for any insight into future rate cuts as more FOMC members turn dovish, USD to remain sensitive to trade war developments.


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Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Price Eying a Test of the Weekly Support

Bearish momentum sent USD/CAD last week to its lowest levels in nearly four months. Here are the key chart points to consider for a downtrend continuation or a possible correction.


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Gold Prices Explode Higher, Silver Prices Stalling at Key Resistance

Gold prices soars to 6yr highs, however, buyers beware as gold is now the most overbought in 30yrs.


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DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook: Pullback Constructive So Far

Stocks are retreating from near yearly highs, so far the pullbacks are orderly and look constructive for higher prices; can’t rule out double-top but looks the less-likely scenario.


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EURUSD Chart Analysis: Euro May Turn Lower From 3-Month High

The Euro has advanced to a three-month high against the US Dollar, but technical positioning warns that a downturn may be in the cards ahead.


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Monday, 24 June 2019

Crude Oil Prices Brace for Impact as Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Crude oil prices may turn lower if worried comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell spook markets even as scope for a more dovish policy outlook is diminished.


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EURUSD Uptrend May be Accelerated by Powell Commentary, US Data

EURUSD’s break above descending resistance may be accelerated by a rise in rate cut expectations from US economic data and commentary from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.


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Asian Stocks Fade Across Board As Markets Look to Trump-Xi Meet



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EURUSD Rate Targets March High as Trump Advocates Rate Cuts & Easing

EURUSD appears to be on track to test the March-high (1.1448) following the FOMC meeting as the exchange rate breaks out of the downward trend from earlier this year.


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USDSEK, USDNOK Broke Trend-Defining Support Levels - Now What?

USDNOK, USDSEK all broke through major trend-defining support levels and are now finding themselves aimlessly wandering – will both pairs resume their previous uptrend?


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S&P 500 and Dow Extreme Quiet vs Record Highs, Dollar Continues Dive

The flush of enthusiasm following in the wake of the Fed decision has diminished over the weekend. Anticipation for the G-20 is high, but between high tides where can we expect significant market movement?


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SNB Likely Wary Of Any EURCHF Floor Even If ECB Eases Again

Markets believe the European Central Bank will ease policy this year. This could be bad news for the Swiss National Bank, but it’s not clear that it will resort to old remedies.


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BRL, Ibovespa Brace for Copom Meeting Minutes, Pension Vote

The Brazilian Real and benchmark Ibovespa stock index may experience higher-than-usual volatility after the Copom meeting minutes are published.


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AUDUSD Rate Approaches Monthly High with US & China to Meet at G20

Recent price action in AUDUSD brings the monthly-high (0.7022) on the radar as the exchange rate extends the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week.


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Weekly Trade Levels for US Dollar, Euro, Kiwi, Aussie, Gold & Oil

Webinar highlighting active trade setups we’re tracking into the close of the month. Here are the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the technical charts.


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EUR/USD: Net-Short Positions are 45.7% Higher from Last Week

Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.


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US Dollar Price Outlook in EUR/USD, AUD/USD

Last week was big for the US Dollar, but with only a week left until the Q3 open – can sellers continue to push? Both EURUSD and AUDUSD are set up.


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Weekly Technical Forecast: Where to After a SPX Record, Gold 6-Year High, Dollar Breakdown?

There were a range of remarkable technical developments this past week across the financial spectrum. A jump in risk-leaning assets pushed the S&P 500 back into record territory but gold defied popular convention by mounting its own rally to its own six-year highs. Then there is the Dollar which posted its heaviest weak in 16 months its medium-term trading range hit a record low.


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Weekly Trading Forecast: Watch Dow and EURUSD as G20 Approaches Amid Risk Resurgence

Risk appetite was charged this past week by the Fed’s alignment with other major central banks signaling a fresh wave of external support for stretched speculators. Alone, stimulus may not carry the torch though; so traders should keep in mind growth issues and trade wars as the G20 summit approaches.


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USD Suffers as Key Support Breaks, EURUSD, AUDUSD Benefit - US Market Open

EURUSD challenging 1.14 to the upside as the USD hovers below the 200DMA, while AUDUSD benefits from a continued short squeeze.


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Central Banks Are Mostly Dovish But Norges Bank Signalls Further Rate Hikes

Most Central Banks decide to leave rates unchanged in expectation that a trade deal may be reached at the G-20 summit in Osaka later on this week. RBA and Norges Bank take action.


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S&P 500, DAX Technical Forecast

S&P 500 printed fresh record highs with the index rising over 7% in June, as such, scope increases for a near-term pull, while upside in the DAX has been capped by the 2019 high.


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Gold Price Outlook: Long-term Bullish, but Rally May Stall in the Short-term

Last week's explosion out of a multi-year wedge bodes well for higher prices, but some backing-and-filling may be in store in the near-term.


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EUR/JPY Price Outlook: How EURO May Rally against Japanese Yen

EUR/JPY Might be on course to correct higher. Here are the levels the price needs to clear in order to move to the higher trading zone.


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Crude Oil Analysis: Risks Tilted to Upside, Iran Plans to Break Nuclear Deal Limit

Crude oil prices have continued to extend on its gains amid the rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.


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EURUSD Shruggs Off IFO Figures as It Continues to Push Higher

EURUSD continued to push higher this morning as the pair headed towards the 1.1388 handle despite IFO figures about future expectations being lower than anticipated.


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Weekly Euro Forecast: Last Week of June Awaits Euro Inflation Data

Euro gains have been largely built upon crumbling US Dollar; elsewhere, speculation that the ECB will introduce new stimulus soon has weighed on the Euro. The upcoming June Eurozone inflation report is due to show that price pressures have arrested their recent decline.


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Technical Indicators Defined and Explained for Forex Traders

Learn about the key technical indicators and how they can take your analysis to the next level.


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Sunday, 23 June 2019

Gold Prices May Struggle to Extend Gains Before G20 Summit

Gold prices may struggle to extend last week’s dramatic Fed-inspired rally as markets eye a G20 summit where it is hoped that US-China trade talks will resume.


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Dwindling German IFO Business Climate Survey to Rattle EURUSD Rally

Updates to Germany’s IFO Business Climate survey may rattle the recent rally in EURUSD as the index is expected to narrow for the third consecutive month in June.


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Euro Nervously Eyes G20 Summit Outcome, Italy Budget Dispute

With a relatively light economic docket in the US and Europe, the Euro may find itself focusing on lingering fundamental risks and themes including the G20 summit and a budget dispute with Italy.


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Weekly Euro Forecast: Last Week of June Awaits Euro Inflation Data

Euro gains have been largely built upon crumbling US Dollar; elsewhere, speculation that the ECB will introduce new stimulus soon has weighed on the Euro. The upcoming June Eurozone inflation report is due to show that price pressures have arrested their recent decline.


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Asian Markets Trade Mixed, Narrow With Eyes On Iran, G20, RBNZ

Regional bourses lacked an overarching theme as a new week got under way, but there were at least three big issues for investors to focus on.


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USDSGD Eyes G20 Trade Talks, Rupee at Risk as Pompeo Visits India

USDSGD may rise as the Dollar gains during the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan as markets eye US-China trade talks. The Rupee is at risk to a US tariff push as Mike Pompeo visits India.


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NOK and SEK Eye Trump and Xi Meeting at G20, Rising Brexit Risks

The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone will be closely watching the G20 summit and updates on the status of US-China trade relations against a backdrop of growing uncertainty over Brexit.


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NZDUSD Rate Rebound Vulnerable to Dovish RBNZ Forward Guidance

NZDUSD stands at risk of staging a larger rebound ahead of the RBNZ interest rate decision on June 26 as the exchange rate carves a series of higher highs and lows.


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AUDUSD Gains, RBA Lowe Again Ponders Monetary Easing’s Limits

The Australian Dollar got a lift after the RBA Governor pointed to some of the difficulties apparent in a world where everyone is lowering interest rates


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2012-High Treasury Demand Sunk S&P 500, EURUSD Broke Resistance

The S&P 500 was denied another record high as demand for 10-year US government bonds soared to a 2012-high at auction, fueling risk aversion. EURUSD rocketed through resistance on PMI data.


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Weekly Technical Forecast: Where to After a SPX Record, Gold 6-Year High, Dollar Breakdown?

There were a range of remarkable technical developments this past week across the financial spectrum. A jump in risk-leaning assets pushed the S&P 500 back into record territory but gold defied popular convention by mounting its own rally to its own six-year highs. Then there is the Dollar which posted its heaviest weak in 16 months its medium-term trading range hit a record low.


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Weekly Trading Forecast: Watch Dow and EURUSD as G20 Approaches Amid Risk Resurgence

Risk appetite was charged this past week by the Fed’s alignment with other major central banks signaling a fresh wave of external support for stretched speculators. Alone, stimulus may not carry the torch though; so traders should keep in mind growth issues and trade wars as the G20 summit approaches.


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Dollar’s Biggest Weekly Drop in 16 Months Breaks Year-Long Bull Trend

The Dollar dove this past week following a high-profile Fed rate decision with momentum hitting speeds last seen in February 2018. In the process, it seems key support levels have cracked.


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Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100, ASX 200 Weekly Forecast

With the central bank extravaganza behind them, the Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100 and ASX 200 should look to enjoy a short-term tailwind from widespread dovishness.


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Saturday, 22 June 2019

Oil Price Weekly Outlook: Crude Rebound Face First Test of Resistance

Oil prices have rallied more than 9% this week with the advance now testing initial resistance targets. These are the levels that matter on the WTI weekly chart.


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Sterling Weekly Technical Outlook: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP

The British Pound risks swinging in response to the latest Brexit headlines and speculation over the Prime Ministers successor. What key technical levels should be watched in spot GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP?
Key Words: GBP/USD forecast, GBP forecast, British Pound, Pound Sterling, Brexit


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Gold Weekly Forecast: A Perfect Storm of Rates and Risk

Gold (XAU) bulls have had a storming week with the precious metal up nearly $80 at one stage this week, touching levels last seen in September 2013. And with technical resistance breaking down, higher prices are a distinct possibility.


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Australian Dollar Week Ahead: AUDUSD, AUDJPY Near-Term Reversals?

The Australian Dollar may see near-term gains versus the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, but the AUDUSD weekly chart hints downtrend resumption in the medium-term. AUDJPY eyes resistance.


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US Dollar Outlook Mired by Bets for Fed Rate Cut in July

Fresh data prints coming out of the US economy may do little to heighten the appeal of the Dollar as the Federal Reserve alters the forward guidance for monetary policy.


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Trading the Bullish Engulfing Candle

The bullish engulfing pattern is an easy to identify reversal signal when used correctly. Learn how to trade using the bullish reversal.


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GBP Eyeing G-20 Summit, UK GDP After BoE Sends Chilling Message

Sterling traders will be nervously eyeing UK GDP and the G-20 summit after the BoE sent a chilling message about their outlook for Brexit and growth risks.


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Friday, 21 June 2019

Euro Technical Forecast: EURUSD May Break Falling Wedge Pattern

The Euro found a bid last week, and on that it is once again flirting with a breakout of a large falling wedge pattern; a confirmed break could send it considerably higher.


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Crude Oil Prices Cast Worried Eye on G20 Summit, Iran a Wildcard

Crude oil prices are eyeing a critical G20 summit where the US and China are expected to resume trade negotiations. Building tensions with Iran are a wildcard.


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A Dollar Reversal and S&P 500 Nonplussed at Record High Ahead of G20 Summit

The S&P 500 earned its record high this past week, but apparently it wasn’t a move inherently tooled for follow through. Meanwhile, the Dollar ended the week with a provocative breakdown. Will these trends continue?


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Palladium Price: Bullish Move Could be Nearing its Final Stage

Palladium upward trend continues but with lower momentum. Here are the key levels the price needs to clear to carry on its bullish move.


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Gold Price Weekly Outlook: Gold Rips to 5-Year Highs- Buyers Beware

Gold prices are poised to post the largest weekly advance in three years with price probing key resistance. These are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.


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EURUSD Reclaims 1.13, Gold Cracks $1400, Oil Price Volatility Persists - US Market Open

EURUSD reclaims the 1.1300 level following better than expected Eurozone PMI figures. Gold Breaks $1400 with central bank stimulus on the horizon.


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US Dollar Sell-Off Pauses at Key Support - Can Bears Break Through?

The US Dollar put in a big move around FOMC this week but, as yet, hasn't broken through key support. The Q3 open is now just around-the-corner.


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Forex and Gold Price Charts to Watch Next Week

Next week we could see the Dollar break a big level, while gold has already broken a big level, but is it sustainable?


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USDCAD and EURGBP Technical Set-ups, Both Looking Weaker Ahead

USDCAD has an interesting longer-term outlook which could lead to short-term set-ups, while EURGBP could be on its way lower next week.


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Crude Oil Price - Trump Fuelled Rally Running into Resistance

Crude oil keeps pumping higher after news that US President Trump authorized strikes against a number of targets in Iran before pulling the order, in retaliation for the downing of a US drone.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Continues; Consolidation Needed Before Next Push

Bitcoin continues to probe USD10,000 with little technical resistance ahead to stem the move. A period of consolidation may be needed before BTC re-tests the March 2018 swing-high.


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US Dollar Price on the Brink of Support Break: DXY, Euro Charts

The USD index is flirting with a break of significant support, can it hang on as it did recently or will we see a sizable slide commence as soon as next week?


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US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF Price Action Controlled by Sellers for Now

Since the start of this week USD/CHF has lost nearly 2.6% of its value. Here is the price to consider for a possible continuation of the bearish momentum.


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EURUSD Fails to Push Higher As Eurozone PMIs Are Mixed

EURUSD and EURGBP both experience a small boost on the release of German PMIs but quickly correct as Eurozone PMIs are mixed. The Eurozone continues to experience heightened risk.


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S&P 500 Outlook: Fed Easing Cycles Bode Well for S&P 500 in Short Run

Federal Reserve confirm its U-Turn in monetary policy having provided an easing bias in an attempt to sustain the expansion, taking S&P 500 to record highs. Focus on G20 Summit.


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Thursday, 20 June 2019

Trading with the Bearish Engulfing Candle

The bearish engulfing pattern is an effective way to spot reversals to the downside. Find out how to trade using this candlestick pattern


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AUDUSD Chart Analysis: Downtrend Expected to Resume After Bounce

The Australian Dollar has managed a tepid recovery against its US counterpart, but technical positioning continues to argue for a firmly bearish trend bias.


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EURUSD Eyeing US, EU PMI Data - European Turmoil in Focus

EURUSD may find itself oscillating between US and European PMI data against the backdrop of increasing turmoil in European politics.


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US-Iran Tensions Hold APAC Stocks Down. Gold, Yen Make Gains

Asian investors were keeping a close watch on the Middle East as the trading week bows out. This deflated the risk appetite formerly stoked by Federal Reserve dovishness.


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Crude Oil Prices Finding Support From Escalating Tensions in Iran

Political risks in the Gulf may be a tailwind for crude oil prices as tensions between Iran, its neighbors and the US continue to escalate.


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S&P 500 Record High Less Convincing Against Gold’s Surge, Yields Plunge

With the biggest bullish gap on an open since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 moved to a record high. Have we made the transition to full-tilt bull market now or do key discrepancies speak to a temporary mania?


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Euro May Top Versus Pound Sterling, EURGBP Chart Support Taken Out

The Euro may be topping against the British Pound, EURGBP rising support was taken out on the daily chart. The weekly chart shows indecision. Will net-short positioning unwind ahead?


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Gold Prices Surge to 6-Year High But Gains May Be Fleeting

Gold prices surged to a six-year high amid swelling Fed interest rate cut speculation, but the move’s underlying forces may bring about its own undoing.


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Japanese Yen Bulls Could Face Big Trouble If Risk Appetite Holds

A Fed-inspired revival in risk appetite has yet to dissuade Yen bulls. That state of affairs seems unlikely to last. Long-term charts suggest they might soon face a stern test.


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USDNOK Plunges, Breaks 15-Month Support on Hawkish Norges Bank

USDNOK fell over one percent after the Norges Bank chose to raise its benchmark interest rate and provided a hawkish outlook for monetary policy.


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Oil Price Forecast: Bearish Momentum Abates Ahead of G20 Summit

Crude oil prices look poised for a larger recovery ahead of the Group of 20 (G20) Summit as the bearish momentum abates.


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Crude Oil Prices Bottoming May Help USDCAD Topping Potential

Crude oil prices are extending their gains amid geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran reaching a fever pitch.


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Platinum Price: Stuck in a Sideways Pattern Important Levels to Know

This week platinum created a lower low, nonetheless continued trendless. Here are the levels the price has to consider to start a clear trend.


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Hammer Candlestick Patterns: A Trader’s Guide

Learn how to use the hammer candlestick pattern to spot bullish reversals in the market. Our guide includes expert trading tips and examples


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Gold Price Outlook: Gold Breaks Out to Five-Year-Highs, Now What?

Gold put in a big breakout over the past 24 hours, and there may be scope for more. But, how can a trader approach an overbought but bullish Gold market?


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EUR/USD Pops, GBP/USD Tests Resistance as USD Slammed post-FOMC

It's been a busy backdrop since yesterday's FOMC rate decision, with risk assets flying-higher as the US Dollar has taken a dive.


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CAD Soars, Oil Spikes on Drone Attack, USD Challenges 200DMA - US Market Open

Global central bank easing is on its way as the Fed confirms shift towards lowering interest rates. Demand for USD is eroded as US yields edge lower.


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Bitcoin: Retail Trader Data Shows 76.8% of Traders Are Net-Long

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Bitcoin-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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GBP Suffers Another Blow, BoE Cuts Growth Forecasts And Signals Downisde Risk Is Increasing

The Bank of England has failed to please investors who believed the Central Bank’s tone would become more hawkish at the June meeting. Sterling slipped against most major currencies as the UK Q2 growth forecast is downgraded.


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Spot Gold: Retail Trader Data Shows 56.2% of Traders Are Net-Long

Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.


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S&P 500: Retail Trader Data Shows 66.3% of Traders Are Net-Short

The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger US 500-bullish contrarian trading bias.


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How to Set Up Effective Trading Goals

Read our advice on building solid process-oriented goals to build confidence and consistency in your trading.


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USD Price Analysis: Risk of Deeper Losses as Fed Confirms U-Turn

Fed confirms U-Turn after opening the door for rate cuts. Risks to USD increase as falling yields continue to erode support.


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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Selloff Might Continue Below This Price

Bearish momentum resumed sending the price lower after dovish clear signals from Fed yesterday. Here are the relevant news and key signals for USD/CAD price


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Gold Price Soars to Five-Year High, Silver Smashes Through Resistance

The price of gold soared after Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to a series of US interest rate cuts, starting as early as next month. And silver finally crashed through long-running resistance.


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Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook as Highs Near

Can stocks keep on rising as new highs approach, or could the market be in for a bit of a set-back; should gain better clarity on this in the days ahead…


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Wednesday, 19 June 2019

EURUSD Chart Analysis: Choppy Trade Belies Bearish Trend Bias

The Euro bungled an upside reversal against the US Dollar, backsliding into an inconclusive range. Still, the dominant trend bias continues to favor weakness.


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GBPUSD Eyeing BoE Rate Decision, Brexit Amid Prime Minister Race

GBPUSD will be closely watching the Bank of England’s rate decision in addition to the race for Prime Minister – third ballot vote ahead.


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S&P 500 Chart Aims for Record High as Fed Boosts Stocks in Asia

S&P 500 futures enter resistance separating it from record highs. Equities rally after the Fed in Asia trade, but ASX 200 trimmed gains as July RBA rate cut bets muted bank shares.


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Gold Price Rise May Extend as BOE Joins Dovish Central Bank Peers

Gold prices touched a six-year high amid speculation on a broad-based dovish shift in global monetary policy. The Bank of England may give the move a further nudge.


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Dollar Slides and S&P 500 Gains Despite Fed Hitting Rate Cut Forecasts

The Fed has refused the market’s assumption of full support at a particularly vulnerable time for stretched speculators. Thankfully for them, their skepticism over central bank resiliency runs deep.


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Japanese Yen Gains As BOJ Leaves All Monetary Settings Alone

The Japanese Yen got a very modest boost from the BoJ’s expected decision, perhaps as it contrasted with a more dovish Federal Reserve


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AUD Ticks Down, RBA Lowe Calls Rate Further Rate Cut Not Unrealistic

The Australian Dollar dipped as the RBA Governor kept prospects of one more rate cut alive but said monetary solutions were not the only ones.


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USDCAD Rate Eyes Monthly Low as FOMC Adjusts Interest Rate Forecast

USDCAD appears to be on track to test the monthly-low (1.3238) following the Federal Reserve meeting as the exchange rate initiates a series of lower highs and lows.


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Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

While risk markets have come back to life in the month of June, the anti-risk Yen has continued to be bid. Is this highlighting a harboring theme of risk aversion that may soon return?


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USD Currency Volatility Highlighted by June Fed Meeting

The Federal Reserve's FOMC looks set to spark volatility in the US Dollar on Wednesday following the central bank's latest monetary policy update.


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Gold Price Outlook: XAU Breakout Grapples at Resistance ahead of FOMC

Gold prices have set a clear weekly opening-rang just below the yearly highs heading into the FOMC. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week.


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Top 5 Events: June Fed Meeting Preview & EURUSD Forecast

The June Fed meeting will conclude today at 18:00 GMT with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference starting at 18:30 GMT.


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CAD Spikes, GBPUSD Outperforms, EURUSD Eyes FOMC - US Market Open

The Canadian Dollar spiked higher after the latest inflation data surprised to the upside, while the Euro remains subdued ahead of the FOMC rate decision.


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US Dollar Price Outlook in EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY

Fed day is here, and expectations for a dovish twist are priced-in. But how dovish will the Fed go, and what might the impact be to the US Dollar across major FX pairs?


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Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USDCAD, CADJPY

Range trading persists for USDCAD with momentum signals directionless, while potential short-term bounce in CADJPY could be capped at key resistance.


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Italy’s Mini-BOTs: Fiscal Stimulus or Illegal Parallel Currency?

Matteo Salvini’s government continues to drive up risk premiums as key figures hint at the possibility of issuing small government securities to overcome their ongoing budget crisis. Some politicians have even consider returning to a national currency and monetary independence.


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Crude Oil Price Building a Base, US Intentions Remain the Key Driver

Crude oil is continuing to build a base, after the recent sell-off over the last few weeks, and the next move will be predicated by words and actions between the US and China and Iran.


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Dow Jones Rips Towards Record Highs; DAX, Oil Charts & More

Stocks are moving higher with force towards new highs while oil tries to rally with them; both stocks and oil could find problems in maintaining their footing.


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FTSE 100 Outlook – Rally Has Price Extending into Resistance Levels

The FTSE popped yesterday with other global markets, has a couple of degrees of trend resistance to pay attention to starting now.


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Samantha LaDuc on Intermarket Analysis | Podcast

Macro-to-Micro analyst Samantha LaDuc discusses how intermarket analysis can create opportunities.


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Sterling (GBP) Price: UK Inflation Back at 2%, UK Leadership Vote Round 3

GBPUSD nudged a fraction higher after the latest inflation data came in-line with expectations ahead of Thursday’s BOE meeting. Sterling traders will now eye round 3 of the UK Leadership contest.


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Gold Price Outlook Bullish Longer Term, Focus on Fed Meeting

Gold prices in pole position to gain from global central bank easing. Longer run risks remain tilted to the upside. Eyes on FOMC meeting for short-term outlook.


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GBP Sterling Price Outlook: GBP/JPY Eyes to Continue a Multi-Month as Sell-Off

Yesterday GBP/JPY tested its lowest level since the start of the year. Here are the important news with the key technical levels to consider.


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Tuesday, 18 June 2019

EURUSD Rate Breakout Undermined by Dovish ECB Forward Guidance

EURUSD struggles to hold its ground ahead of the Fed rate decision as ECB President Mario Draghi endorses a dovish forward-guidance for monetary policy.


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EURUSD May Look Past Draghi Comments with FOMC in the Spotlight

While yesterday the Euro took a hit after ECB President Mario Draghi alluded to possible future cuts and reintroduction of QE, markets may look past them as their attention turns to the FOMC.


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Stocks Up On US-China Trade Hopes in APAC Trade, Fed Decision Due

The US-China trade war was back in focus Wednesday with hopes of a thaw between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping underpinning broad optimism.


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Crude Oil Prices May Fall with Stocks on Fed Rate Outlook Update

Crude oil prices may fall alongside stocks the Federal Reserve disappoints hopes for sharp dovish shift in the official outlook for interest rates, cooling risk appetite.


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USDMYR Uptrend Support Eyed as USDPHP May Fall to Key Price Level

The USDMYR uptrend was kept intact by a rising trend line, will it hold again? USDPHP pressured lower by falling resistance and may be looking at another retest of critical support.


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ASX 200 Aims At Record High As Technicals, Fundamentals Align

The ASX 200 has weathered risk aversion storms with surprising comfort and looks very well placed now that they seem to be subsiding.


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BRL Eyeing Selic Rate, Banco do Brazil and FOMC Commentary

The Brazilian Real may fall if commentary from central bank officials is underscored by dovish undertones – FOMC commentary also poses major risk to BRL volatility.


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Gold Price Forecast: RSI Triggers Overbought Signal Ahead of FOMC

Recent price action in gold keeps the topside targets on the radar ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision as the RSI pushes into overbought territory.


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US Trade Rep Lighthizer Testifies Before Senate Committee on USMCA

USTR Lighthizer testified before the Senate Finance Committee Tuesday morning as Congress continues to maul over the fine print of the USMCA as proponents attempt to inch the deal closer to passing Congress.


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Kiwi Price Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Counter-Offensive, First Test

A defense of the yearly lows in Kiwi has the recovery testing initial resistance targets ahead of the Fed. Here are the levels that matter on the NZD/USD price charts.


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EURJPY, EURUSD Rates Hit by Selling Pressure after Draghi Comments

With ECB President Mario Draghi talking up the possibility of more stimulus, the Euro is under renewed pressure across the board.


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Gold Price Gears Up for Another Shot at Big-Picture Breakout

Gold prices have remained on the move so far in June, but a big area of long-term resistance has come back into play. Can buyers finally elicit a push beyond this zone?


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USDCNH Drops, Dow Jones Pops as Trump and Xi Set to Meet at G20

The Dow Jones added to already-established gains on Tuesday after President Trump announced he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Japan next week.


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Crude Oil Price Downtrend May be Over - Implications for USDCAD Rates

Crude oil prices have closed below their daily 8-EMA every session since May 22. The bullish key reversal forming today suggests the downtrend may be coming to an end.


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Currency Wars: Trump Blasts Dovish Draghi on Talk of Rate Cuts and QE - US Market Open

Dovish Draghi delivers as the Euro moves below 1.12, while inflation expectations rise over 5% after the ECB President paves the way for further stimulus.


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US Dollar Price Outlook: USD Back to 97.70, Bulls Push Ahead of FOMC

US Dollar bulls have come back to bid the currency higher after a test of a big zone of support. But can they keep control through tomorrow's FOMC?


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Market Sentiment Stabilizing | Webinar

Risk appetite remains poor in the financial markets but confidence seems to be steadying even though the geopolitical backdrop remains unhelpful.


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Dollar Chart Outlook: EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY & More

The Dollar is propelling its way higher towards resistance; can it break out or will it be more of the same, stop and reverse?


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FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250: Impact of GBPUSD and Brexit Outlook

Risks to the UK are increasingly tilted to the downside as no-deal Brexit risks rise. Focus is on the impact that GBPUSD and Brexit has on UK equities.


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Sterling (GBP) Gripped by UK Leadership Vote, Hard Brexit Fears

GBPUSD continues to struggle around 2019 lows as the second round of voting for the Conservative leadership continues with the result expected late afternoon. And Brexiteer Boris Johnson, is currently a huge odds-on favorite for the role.


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EUR Hit Hard as Draghi Hints at Further QE, Key Focus on ECB Sintra Panel

EUR is eyeing its worse trading day in June as Mario Draghi reiterates that further economic stimulus is to be expected if market conditions continue to worsen. EURUSD falls below 1.1200 for the first time since the beginning of the month.


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US Dollar Price Eying FOMC Meeting – USD/CAD Price Important Resistance to Watch

Last week USD/CAD returned to the old consolidation zone. Here are the levels USD/CAD could be eying and the key prices that need to be considered.


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Gold Price Chart Patterns Set It Up for Selling This Week

Gold posted a strong reversal on Friday at a very big area of resistance; both gold and silver look headed lower in the days ahead.


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Monday, 17 June 2019

GBP Could Be Hit if US-China Trade War Makes London Pick a Side

Despite some well-publicized wobbles, the UK has walked the tightrope between Washington and Beijing quite well. Will it ever have to choose between them?


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Euro Braces for German ZEW Survey, Commentary from ECB and Draghi

EURUSD may fall if German ZEW data underperforms and commentary from ECB officials continues to underscore a need to introduce more Eurozone stimulus.


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Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look to Fed Rate Decision for Direction Cues

Crude oil and gold prices are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve policy announcement for direction cues. The balance of risks seems to bode ill for commodities.


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USDNOK’s Recovery May be Threatened by Dovish FOMC Commentary

After breaking below the lower lip of critical range, USDNOK has re-entered the area and is now aiming to breach the upper bound, though this could be undermined by a dovish Fed.


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Rupee Outlook Bearish if Trump Expands Trade War to India

The Rupee may weaken if Donald Trump slaps tariffs on India after Prime Minister Narendra Modi retaliated and raised levies on US goods, fueling trade war fears as USDINR rises.


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US Dollar May Sink if China Dumps Treasury Bonds. Will It Happen?

The US Dollar is likely to plunge if China deploys the “nuclear option” in its trade war with the US, selling its Treasury bond holdings. Is this likely to happen?


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Australian Dollar Wilts As RBA Minutes Say More Rate Cuts Likely

The Australian Dollar took a hit Tuesday as the minutes of the RBA's last monetary policy meeting found rate setters saying that further rate cuts are probable.


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RBA Minutes to Offer AUDUSD Little Relief Ahead of FOMC Meeting

The RBA Minutes may do little to prop up AUDUSD ahead of the FOMC meeting as the exchange rate extends the series of lower highs and lows from the previous week.


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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Recovery Eyes Trend Resistance

The US Dollar recovery has put Loonie on the defensive with price now approaching a key inflection zone. Here are the levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts.


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US Dollar Bounces at Support While Gold Prices Stuck Below Resistance

US Dollar bounces at nine-month support line. Gold price Elliott wave outlook towards lower levels on the inability to break through resistance.


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USD, Gold & Stock Price Volatility Eye Looming Fed Meeting

What might implied volatility measures suggest about the next direction in spot gold, the US Dollar and stocks ahead of this week's FOMC rate decision?


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Weekly Trade Levels for US Dollar, Euro, Sterling, Aussie, Gold & Oil

Webinar highlighting active trade setups we’re tracking into the FOMC this week. Here are the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the technical charts.


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Copper Price May Probe Two-Year Low

Copper price U turned the last week hinting to resume its paused bearish price action. Here are the key technical levels to consider.


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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: UK Inflation, Canada Inflation, Fed Meeting, New Zealand GDP, BOJ Meeting

At long last, the highly anticipated June Fed meeting is on deck. All other economic data releases will be playing second fiddle over the coming week.


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US Dollar Price Outlook: USD Bounce in Focus as FOMC Forecast Looms

The US Dollar put in a brisk recovery last week from the early-June sell-off; but with FOMC on Wednesday, will USD-bears be able to push down to fresh lows?


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GBPUSD Bounces Off Key Trendline Support from Flash Crash Low - US Market Open

Central banks are in focus this week with rate decisions from the Fed and BoE, while Draghi is scheduled to speak at Sintra.


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Weekly Technical Forecast: Dow and EURUSD Reverse, Gold and Oil Extend Runs

Faced with the prospect of forcing key breakouts that could systemically alter the markets bearing, the US indices and EURUSD instead folded to technical pressure. Not all markets have lost traction and conviction. Both gold and oil have extended major bullish and bearish trends, respectively.


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Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Hopes Compete with Trade War Fears

A week ago, it seemed that some relief from trade wars would filter through to stimulate further relief rallies. As we move into the new trading week, it is clear that this persistent theme is once again firmly a concern – and reinforced by flagging economic growth. Will Fed support offer enough relief to prevent a sentiment cave in?


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DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts Stabilizing, Looking Higher

So far, the German and French benchmarks are digesting the recent ramp in a constructive manner, this suggests more strength could soon be in store.


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EUR Price Forecast: EUR/JPY May Resume Bearish Price Action

On June 11 EUR/JPY carved out a lower high hinting to continue its bearish momentum. Here are the chart points need to be kept in focus.


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US Dollar Outlook Less Bullish, CHF Shorts Cut, CAD Longs Boosted - COT Report

USD bullish positioning had been cut by $2.5bln vs. G10 currencies, while CHF sees a short squeeze on increased risk averse sentiment.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Surge, Facebook Cryptocurrency Mooted

Bitcoin's recent rally continues apace and is now eyeing $10,000, a level not seen since for over a year. Traders also need to watch out for any announcement from Facebook (FB) concerning its new cryptocurrency.


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Crude Oil Price Action Weak, Has Room to Drop

Oil is failing to garner much buying pressure despite its decline since April, suggesting further weakness ahead towards long-term support levels.


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Gold Price Outlook Positive, Silver Price Continues to Struggle

Gold has slipped back from its recent 14-month high, but the chart remains positive ahead of this Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Silver’s move above $15 may prove fleeting.


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Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Hopes Compete with Trade War Fears

A week ago, it seemed that some relief from trade wars would filter through to stimulate further relief rallies. As we move into the new trading week, it is clear that this persistent theme is once again firmly a concern – and reinforced by flagging economic growth. Will Fed support offer enough relief to prevent a sentiment cave in?


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Sunday, 16 June 2019

EURUSD May Fall on Draghi Comments - Italy Budget Risks Escalating

EURUSD will be watching tomorrow’s meeting in Portugal where ECB officials – along with BoE Governor Mark Carney – will be discussing whether the Eurozone needs more stimulus.


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Gold Price Chart Hints at Topping Before Key Fed Policy Meeting

Gold price chart positioning hints that a top may be in the works ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting after last week’s capitulation at 14-month highs.


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Asian Stocks Mixed As Markets Look To Fed, Mull US Retail Sales

US futures markets still see a reduction in interest rates shortly despite some renewed strength in key data metrics. The Dollar rose nevertheless


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USDSGD, USDINR and USDMYR May Rise on Fed Outlook. USDPHP Eyes BSP

The US Dollar may rise as confidence in a dovish Fed deteriorates, boosting USDSGD and USDINR. The Bank of Indonesia will likely guard the Rupiah as USDPHP may rise on a BSP rate cut.


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NOK Eyes Crude Oil Prices, Norges Bank and FOMC Rate Decisions

The Norwegian Krone will likely experience higher-than-usual volatility alongside crude oil prices ahead of rate decisions by the Norges Bank and Fed.


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NZDUSD Chart Analysis: Sellers Threaten 17-Year Trend Support

The New Zealand Dollar is threatening to break a 17-year uptrend after sellers reasserted dominance to end and then erase an upswing from late-May lows.


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EURUSD Sinks Towards 2019 Lows as US Dollar Soars on Retail Sales

EURUSD sunk through support, verifying a prior false upside breakout as the US Dollar soared on local retail sales and industrial production data. NZDUSD at risk to incoming data.


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Weekly Gold Price Forecast: Outlook Tied to Fed Meeting, Interest Rate Forecast

Gold prices have rallied in recent week as Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations have been aggressively dragged forward. But if the FOMC doesn’t confirm the market consensus that the Fed cut cycle is about to begin, gold prices may have difficult continuing higher in the short-term.


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Weekly Technical Forecast: Dow and EURUSD Reverse, Gold and Oil Extend Runs

Faced with the prospect of forcing key breakouts that could systemically alter the markets bearing, the US indices and EURUSD instead folded to technical pressure. Not all markets have lost traction and conviction. Both gold and oil have extended major bullish and bearish trends, respectively.


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Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Hopes Compete with Trade War Fears

A week ago, it seemed that some relief from trade wars would filter through to stimulate further relief rallies. As we move into the new trading week, it is clear that this persistent theme is once again firmly a concern – and reinforced by flagging economic growth. Will Fed support offer enough relief to prevent a sentiment cave in?


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US Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast Ahead of FOMC

The Dollar rallied off support last week, but it is still questionable as to whether it can pick up more momentum from here or not; Fed meeting this week.


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S&P 500, FTSE 100 Outlook: Trade War Deadline, Brexit Vote, Fed Powell Testimony in Focus

S&P 500, DAX and FTSE 100 look to Fed, ECB and BoE monetary policy outlook.


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Saturday, 15 June 2019

Crude Oil Price Trading Bias Bearish as Chart Resistance Pressured

Crude oil prices may be due for a near-term correction on reversal technical signals, but oil net-long positioning offers a bearish-contrarian bias, opening the door to testing 2018 lows.


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Euro at Risk as the ECB Sets Up for a Dovish Policy Trajectory

The Euro may come under pressure as the ECB Forum drafts a dovish policy path while EU bigwigs pick its next President with an eye on that vision’s execution.


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Gold Price Weekly Outlook: Breakout Stalls at Multi-year Resistance

Gold prices rallied for a fourth-consecutive week with the advance now testing the 2016 resistance slope. These are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.


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AUDUSD Chart Shows Bears in Control - Technical Outlook

Spot AUDUSD risks printing fresh multi-year lows after a hard rejection of the 0.7000 price level last week.


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US Dollar (USD) Weekly Forecast: Fed to Confirm Interest Rate U-Turn

The US dollar (USD) is biding time ahead of next week’s FOMC monetary policy decision where it is expected that Chair Jerome Powell will indicate that interest rate cuts are coming with the July meeting the most likely starting point.


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Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast

The Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 may experience considerable volatility in the week ahead, here are the technical levels to watch.


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GBPUSD Rate Outlook Hinges on Bank of England (BoE) Forward Guidance

The Bank of England (BoE) meeting on June 20 may shake up the near-term outlook for the British Pound if the central bank alters the forward guidance for monetary policy.


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Friday, 14 June 2019

EURUSD Dropping After a Failed Breakout, Euro Stretched Across Board

The Euro put in for a notable retreat through the second half of last week, but its reversal is not as intense as EURUSD may insinuate. Will momentum spread in the week ahead?


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Crude Oil Prices May Seesaw Between Iran Politics, Growth Sentiment

Crude oil prices may find themselves oscillating between political risks in Iran, leading to fears of a supply shock, and waning optimism over global growth prospects.


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Dollar Holds Off Collapse on GDP Hopes Which the Fed Will Make or Break

The global markets are drawing in their breath in anticipation of the upcoming Fed rate decision. With a unmistakable fade in growth with trade wars, the markets are putting far too much hope in the world’s largest central bank.


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Top 5 Events: May Canada Inflation Report & CADJPY Price Forecast

The May Canada inflation report (consumer price index) is due on Wednesday, June 19 at 12:30 GMT.


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Gold Price Explodes to Fresh Yearly Highs - Levels to Know

Gold prices have caught a significant ramp over the past two weeks and are now testing long-term resistance. But will the FOMC be as dovish as Gold bulls hope for?


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USD Gains While Treasury Yields and Consumer Sentiment Slide

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index printed a reading of 97.9 this morning, which slightly missed expectations of 98.0 and last month’s reading of 100.0.


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Top 5 Events: May UK Inflation Report & GBPUSD Price Forecast

The May UK inflation report (consumer price index) is due on Wednesday, June 19 at 08:30 GMT.


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Kiwi Weekly Price Outlook: NZD/USD Reversal to Threaten Yearly Lows

Kiwi is down more than 2% this week with the pullback targeting major support just lower. These are the levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly chart.


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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USDCAD Retrace to Key Chart Resistance

USDCAD had a brutal start to the month of June, but over the past week shown continued signs of recovery. But bearish potential may still remain on a bigger-picture basis.


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USDJPY: Net-Short Positions Increased by 20% from Last Week

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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GBPUSD: 76.7% of Traders are Net-Long

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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EURUSD: Net-Short Positions Increased by 3.2% from Last Week

Traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week


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US Dollar Rises on Retail Sales, Gold and JPY Gain on Safe-Haven Flows - US Market Open

USD firms after robust retail sales, while softer economic outlook boosts safe-havens, gold and Japanese Yen.


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Dollar, Euro, WTI Crude Oil, and Gold Price Chart Set-ups for Next Week

Next week the Dollar may be put to the test as it sits close to major support, crude oil acting poorly, and gold knocking on the door of a major breakout.


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Dow Jones and S&P 500, Consolidate or Roll Over?

After propelling higher off the monthly low the market is acting well so far, with limited selling resulting in a shallow retracement.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Probing a Fresh 13-Month High

Recent bullish price-action suggests that Bitcoin is looking to make a new 13-month high above $9,080.


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GBP/JPY Price: Bears Need a Break Below the Weekly Support

GBP/JPY correction stalls after UK PM hopeful Boris Johnson roared ahead in the polls, dampening Sterling.


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Euro (EUR) Battles Record Low Euro-Zone Inflation Expectations

The single currency remains under downside pressure as 5-yr/5-yr Euro-Zone inflation expectations hit another record low, leaving the ECB in a precarious situation.


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Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Soft US Data Compounds Risk Aversion

Crude oil prices rose amid worries about an escalating conflict between the US and Iran, but soggy economic data might weigh as global slowdown fears cool demand bets.


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Gold Price Analysis: Fresh 2019 Highs Sees 5yr Trendline on Verge of Breaking

Gold prices jumped following a break above the YTD high, focus now on a break of trendline resistance that has been in place 2014. Fed decision next week will be pivotal.


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Thursday, 13 June 2019

EURUSD May Fall on US Retail, Sentiment Data. GBP Eyeing Carney

Growing demand for liquidity amid risk aversion may pull EURUSD lower even if US data underperforms and tilts the Fed to a more dovish disposition. GBP eyeing BoE’s Mark Carney.


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Asian Stocks Mixed As US, Iran Trade Accusations Over Tanker Attacks

Regional equity had a narrow and mixed session Friday with Middle Eastern tensions back to the fore. Pro-risk currencies struggled much more obviously.


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AUDUSD Chart Analysis: Aussie Dollar Resumes Downtrend, Eyes 0.67

The Australian Dollar looks to have resumed the downtrend against its US counterpart, with chart positioning warning of a decline to test the 0.67 figure ahead.


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NZDUSD, AUDUSD Tumble to Support. RBNZ, RBA Rate Cut Bets Deepen

The NZDUSD and AUDUSD are tumbling to support as increasingly dovish RBNZ and RBA monetary policy bets are undermining their appeal, boosting the Japanese Yen as carry trades unwind.


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Will EURUSD Draw Some of the Trade War Winds from the Dow?

Trade wars are once again at the top of the headlines – and not as a backdrop for bulls to take advantage. Will Trump ease off the pressure at US companies’ please or will he look to expand the engagement even further?


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USDCAD Rate Rebound Fizzles Ahead of US Retail Sales Report

The rebound in USDCAD appears to be stalling ahead of the US Retail Sales report as the exchange rate fails to extend the recent series of higher highs and lows.


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Oil Weekly Price Outlook: Crude Crashes into Fibonacci Support

Crude prices have plummeted more than 25% from the yearly high oil crashing into confluence support here. These are the levels that matter on the WTI weekly chart.


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Palladium Price: Bullish Momentum Pressing Towards April’s High

Palladium price may be on course to recover the losses incurred in the last seven weeks. Here are the key chart levels to watch.


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Tesla Bull Ross Gerber Talks Stock Picking

Wealth management specialist Ross Gerber discusses Tesla, Bitcoin and the key ingredients for a successful stock pick.


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Fed Leads with RBA, RBNZ for Interest Rate Cuts Priced-In for 2019 - Central Bank Weekly

As the US-China trade war presses forward without any tangible signs of resolution, central banks are signaling that they will take more concrete steps over the coming months.


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Trading with the Spinning Top Candlestick

The spinning candle pattern is an indecision formation – a set up that can help traders to find advantageous risk-reward ratios.


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Boris Johnson Wins First Round of UK Leadership Contest by a Landslide, What Next?

The first vote of the leadership contest shows a commanding lead for Boris Johnson. Next round of voting will take place on June 18th.


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CAD Outperforms as Crude Oil Soars, AUD Down Under on RBA Rate Cut Risk - US Market Open

Brent and WTI crude futures surge higher, Canadian Dollar the notable beneficiary, while soft Aussie jobs fuel bets on another RBA rate cut.


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US Dollar Price Outlook: USD Bounce Runs into Resistance

The US Dollar came into the month of June screaming-lower, but has since found support. Next week's FOMC looms large, will buyers be able to hold the bid?


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S&P 500, DAX Outlook: Fed and ECB Pivotal to Short-Term Price Action

Calls for the Fed to loosen policy have grown louder and louder, while markets don’t believe the ECB has the fire power to protect against a downturn.


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Gold Price Outlook Boosted by Renewed Political Risk, Oil Tanker ’Attack’

Gold is on the move higher Thursday after two oil tankers were damaged in an incident in the Gulf of Iran.


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USD Held Support, Now What? EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY Charts

The USD index is coming off support, but it is still unclear as to whether it will hold; there are charts of varying biases in several of the major pairs.


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USD/CAD Price – Bearish Sentiment May Continue on a Break Below the Weekly Low

Bearish momentum sent USD/CAD to its lowest level in nearly three months. Here are the key chart points to watch if this bearish bias continues.


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GBPUSD Outlook: Political Risk Hitting Sterling as PM Race Heats Up



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Crude Oil Prices Spike on Possible Oil Tanker Attack in Gulf of Oman

Crude oil prices are sharply higher following an incident in the Gulf of Oman in which two oil tankers are reportedly on fire.


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EURUSD Chart Analysis: Has Euro Trend Turned Higher? Maybe Not.

The Euro appears to have secured a critical topside breakout, but near-term chart positioning warns against committing to bullish follow-through.


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Wednesday, 12 June 2019

Euro Braces for Finance Minister Meeting, Brexit Risk Rattles GBP

Euro traders will be nervously eyeing the meeting between Eurozone Finance Ministers over how to proceed with Italy while GBP groans in the facing of more Brexit uncertainty.


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Gold Prices Miss Out as Shaky Markets Find Haven in the US Dollar

Gold prices were unable to capitalize as jittery financial markets rediscovered the haven appeal of the US Dollar. More of the same looks likely ahead.


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EURUSD Forecast: Post-ECB Correction Eyes March-High

Recent price action in EURUSD raises the risk for a run at the March-high (1.1448) as the exchange rate breaks out of the bearish trend from earlier this year.


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Nikkei 225 Sinks With Nintendo Shares as ASX 200 Prices Hint Top

The Nikkei 225 dropped alongside Nintendo shares. The ASX 200 may be topping on bearish technical signals. Declines in equities may be ahead after Asia Pacific stocks mostly sunk.


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Japanese Yen Bulls Held At Bay Despite Ongoing US-China Trade Worries

The Japanese Yen has benefitted from the multiple risk events which have this year driven investors back to haven assets. That process has slowed, not stopped


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Dow Takes a Further Step Towards Reversal, EURUSD Reverses from 200 DMA

The Dow and S&P 500 – as benchmarks for risk trends – are making slow steps towards general reversals. With sentiment craving charge for further lift and support drying up, is a further retreat in store?


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AUDUSD at Risk, Australia Jobs Data Underpins Another RBA Rate Cut

The AUDUSD downtrend is in focus after Australia’s unemployment rate missed its 5.1% target, fueling expectations that the RBA may deliver another rate cut relatively soon.


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Lackluster Australia Employment Report to Keep AUDUSD Under Pressure

A 16.0K expansion in Australia Employment may offer little relief to the recent decline in AUDUSD as the RBA appears to be on track to implement lower interest rates.


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Gold Price Outlook: Rally From Fib Support, Gold Nears ’Danger Zone’

Bulls have come back into Gold with aggression, pushing prices towards five-year-highs. But, can that enthusiasm last as longer-term resistance comes into play?


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UK Leadership Contest Timeline: Who Will be the Next UK Prime Minister?

The first vote of the leadership contest will take place on June 13th. As it stands, Boris Johnson is expected the favourite to become the next PM.


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Platinum Price: Bullish Momentum Hinged on a Break Above the Monthly High

Since the start of Jun Platinum has corrected higher. Here are the key chart points to watch.


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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...