Saturday, 31 August 2019

US Dollar Technical Forecast: Can Greenback Gains Continue?

The US Dollar surged to multi-year highs last week as the greenback continues to show its strength, but does USD have room to run or will technical resistance keep upward momentum at bay?


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FTSE 100 & S&P 500 Fundamental Forecast

FTSE 100 posts worst monthly performance of the year. Brexit induced volatility to return. S&P 500 challenges key resistance as eyes turn to ISM and NFP.


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Gold Price Outlook Hinges on Fed Rhetoric, US NFP Report

Fresh developments coming out of the US are likely to influence the price of gold amid overwhelming expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.


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Sterling Price Targets: GBP/USD Rejected at Resistance- Trade Outlook

Sterling is down nearly 1% on the week after turning from downtrend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly chart heading into September.


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FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: August US Jobs Report & EUR/USD Rate Forecast

EURUSD is historically volatile around US nonfarm payrolls and August's jobs report set for release this coming Friday stands to spark US Dollar price action.


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FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: August China PMI Data & Chinese Yuan Price Outlook

US-China trade war rhetoric has dominated market price action, but risk appetite may focus less on headlines and more on hard data with China PMI numbers potentially steering sentiment next week.


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Australian Dollar Slides to Decade Lows - How Far and Fast Can it Drop?

The Australian Dollar continued its pained slide versus the Greenback this past week to notch a fifth consecutive weekly drop and station AUDUSD at its lowest level in over a decade.


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US Dollar May Rise if Fed Commentary Cools Rate Cut Expectations

The US Dollar may rise if commentary from Fed officials throughout the week pour cold water over rising rate cut bets as financial markets grow more fragile.


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Friday, 30 August 2019

EURUSD Tumbles to Close Week and Trump Rankles, Volatility to Return

We are heading out of what is historically one of the quietest trading periods of the year into what is statistically the most active. In the meantime, all the systemic fears continue to circulate.


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Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Technical Forecasts

The Dow Jones, DAX 30 and CAC 40 will look to extend their recent rebounds, but they must now negotiate various areas of resistance while the FTSE 100 struggles to keep pace.


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Crude Oil Prices Aim Lower Amid Trade War, Recession Fears

Crude oil prices are likely to prolong a four-month downtrend as trade war and recession fears undermine demand prospects for the cycle-sensitive commodity.


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FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: August ISM US Services Data & USDJPY Rate Forecast

US Services data is due Thursday, which could spell volatility for a variety of US Dollar crosses – including USDJPY which remains trapped within its August range.


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FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: September BOC Meeting & USD/CAD Rate Forecast

The Bank of Canada will steal the spotlight next Wednesday when the central bank releases its latest monetary policy update which stands to send spot USDCAD swinging.


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FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: September RBA Meeting & AUD/USD Rate Forecast

The Australian Dollar will likely be in focus to kick off the trading week as forex traders turn to the September RBA meeting for clues on where the Aussie might head next.


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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD ETF Holdings Continue to Buoy Outlook

Despite a week in which risk assets like the S&P 500 posted gains, ETF data reveals gold and silver demand remained robust, which could help to keep price afloat in the medium-term.


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VIX: Volatility Hints at Next Move in Gold, US Dollar & Stocks

What does the VIX Index, which quantifies market volatility and risk appetitive, reveal about where gold, the US Dollar and equities might head next?


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Dow Jones Forecast: Deadlocked Fund Flows Highlight Trading Range

The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have maintained a tight trading range during August and ETF flows reveal the indecision amongst traders. Meanwhile, investors poured into corporate debt.


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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: Can GDP Beat Stave off BOC?

The Canadian Dollar climbed noticeably following better-than-expected Q2 GDP data, but can price action cling on to gains with the upcoming Bank of Canada interest rate review?


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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC/USD Price May Break Below Monthly Support

This week, Bitcoin has ended its trendless move. How BTC/USD could move, and what levels need to stay in focus?


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Gold Price Targets: XAU Breakout Stalls- Bulls at Risk into September

The gold price breakout has stalled at critical resistance after rallying nearly 23% off the yearly lows. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.


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Leading Indicators Defined and Explained

Leading indicators assist traders to forecast prices in financial markets. Discover the top leading indicators and how they benefit traders


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How to Trade with the Piercing Line Pattern

Learn how to trade the piercing line pattern, which is used by many traders to trade potential bullish reversals.


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USD/CAD Drops on Canadian Growth Surge, EUR/USD Heads Lower - US Market Open

Canadian Dollar gains on surge in Q2 growth, while EUR/USD heads towards 1.1000, eyes on ECB risk.


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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

As August comes to an end a number of interesting themes remain around FX price action. FOMC and ECB rate decisions bring particular interest for September.


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US-China Trade War: The Economies Most at Risk From US Tariffs

The markets are alarmed regularly by the twists and turns in the US trade war with China, with its crucial implications for the world’s two largest economies. Yet many other countries would also suffer from US import tariffs. Here are some of those that would be affected most.


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Canadian Dollar Outlook: Trendless Price Action - Where is USD/CAD Next Test?

On Tuesday USD/CAD pointed higher after testing its lowest level in two weeks. Here is how US Dollar may perform vs Canadian in the few coming days


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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Multi-Year Downtrend Getting Started?

The New Zealand Dollar looks all but certain to break support guiding its uptrend for nearly two decades, setting the stage for a structural turn in sellers’ favor.


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Most Volatile Currencies Next Week - GBP/USD, AUD/USD

Brexit induced volatility to grow as UK MPs return to parliament, while external factors are likely to have a greater impact on the Australian Dollar.


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Thursday, 29 August 2019

Euro May Fall Vs US Dollar on Critical US, Eurozone Data

EUR/USD may fall if Eurozone jobs and CPI data fuels ECB rate cut bets. Global markets will be carefully watching for US consumption, income and PCE inflation figures.


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Crude Oil Prices Rise as China Assures Markets, Trend Points Down

Crude oil prices rose as China assured markets it won’t lash out at foreign firms amid the trade war with the US, but the path of least resistance still points downward.


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Stocks Up As China Strikes More Conciliatory Trade Tone, Dollar Firm

Trade headlines continue to override all else as equity-market drivers at present. The foreign exchange market remains more immune to upbeat news on this front.


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Will the S&P 500 Attempted a Break or EURUSD Multi-Year Lows Before Weekend?

There are some provocative technical charts – like the S&P 500 range and Dollar proximity to highs – facing off against productive fundamental themes. Yet, the appeal that this circumstances draw is complicated by liquidity.


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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Sellers Take Aim at 2019 Bottom

The Euro is poised to challenge its 2019 low against the US Dollar. If it manages to break this and finish August below 1.0980, September may prove to be dire.


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EURGBP Struggles to Remain Above Critical Support: Break Ahead?

EURGBP is attempting to stay above a three-month rising support channel after briefly breaking below it and other key price levels. Brexit risks may disrupt technical set up.


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Yen Strength Amid Market Tumult to Keep BOJ Target Out of Reach

The Yen’s traditional haven role has seen it boosted by trade war and recession fears. However, with domestic inflation decelerating again, it’s gains put the Bank of Japan is in a very tricky spot.


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AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Still Sluggish as Trade War Simmers

Why might the Australian Dollar still be struggling to recover from its recent selloff induced by the US-China trade war even as tensions unwind?


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VIX Slump Signals Risk Appetite, but Australian Dollar Outlook Remains Bleak

The equity market’s “fear gauge” has slumped considerably over the last two sessions and the US-China trade war outlook has improved. So why has the Australian Dollar lagged?


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US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD

The US Dollar is testing four-week-highs after some dovish comments from incoming ECB President, Christine Lagarde.


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S&P 500 Price Forecast: Can Trade War Hopes Spark a Breakout?

The S&P 500 gapped higher on Thursday after it was announced China would not retaliate against the latest tariff increase. But can a recovery in fundamentals help the S&P 500 break out of its recent range?


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USD/CAD: Canadian Dollar Ripe for Breakout but GDP Data Looms

The Canadian Dollar sits in currency trader's crosshairs with the loonie looking geared up for a technical breakout. Friday's GDP data could potentially serve as the catalyst that fuels CAD's next move.


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US Dollar Breakout in Focus as Fed Rate Cut Odds Drop on Latest US-China Trade War News - Central Bank Weekly

With the US-China trade war back in a state of détente US Treasury yields have turned higher, provoking the US Dollar (via the DXY Index) into a bullish breakout attempt.


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How to Use Bollinger Bands® in Forex Trading

Learn how traders use Bollinger Bands® to trade the forex markets.


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Japanese Yen Price Targets: USD/JPY Breakout Pending- Trade Levels

Price has set a well-defined weekly opening-range just below downtrend resistance and we’re looking for the break. Here are the levels that matter on the USD/JPY charts.


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EUR/USD Rates Threaten Triangle Bearish Breakout after New ECB President’s Remarks

With incoming ECB President Christine Lagarde saying that the central bank “hasn’t hit the lower bound on interest rates,” traders are pricing in a more aggressive rate cut path.


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Silver Price Forecast: Chart Signals XAG/USD May Shoot Higher

Since the start of the week Silver’s uptrend has been moving with a quicker pace. Here are the key tech levels buyers may need to overtake to keep leading the price.


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AUD & CAD Gain on China’s Stance, US Dollar Unmoved by Q2 Growth - US Market Open

Commondity currencies are notably firmer this morning as China’s seemingly softer rhetoric boosts risk appetite.


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Trading with the Cup and Handle Pattern

Learn how to trade forex and stocks using the cup and handle pattern.


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Gold Prices Pull Back as US-China Trade War Softens: Support in Sight

Gold prices are pulling back after a bit of softening in the US-China trade war. But can that pullback turn into anything more, or will this be just another revisit to support?


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GBPUSD Outlook: No End in Sight for Trend Lower

GBPUSD is continuing to fall within a downward-sloping channel after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s suspension of the Westminster Parliament and looks set to challenge the 1.20 level again.


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USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Forecast: Price May Rally Above Weekly Resistance

Last week US Dollar and British Pound Firmed slightly against Japanese Yen. Here are the key chart points GBP/JPY and USD/JPY traders may need to follow closely.


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Trade War Latest: China Softening Stance, Eyes on US Response

Safe havens have seen a slight pullback with high beta FX (AUD) edging higher on the back of the latest commentary from the Chinese Commerce Ministry.


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Wednesday, 28 August 2019

Gold Prices May Rise as Bond Yields Fall on US GDP Downgrade

Gold prices may rise if a revised set of second-quarter US GDP data reveals a larger downgrade than expected, stoking recession fears and pulling down Treasury bond yields.


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US Dollar May Rise if US GDP Data Reinforces Recession Fears

The US Dollar may rise if US GDP data undershoots forecasts and reinforces growing recession fears, driving demand for liquidity and haven assets.


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Stocks Slip As US Yield Curve Continues To Stoke Recession Fears

Asia Pacific equity markets failed to capitalize on Wednesday’s Wall Street gains as US yield curve inversion and Brexit worries continued to dominate.


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No Dollar Assurances in Treasury Downplaying Intervention, Absorbing Headlines for Later

Trade wars threaten to escalate to new territory as the US government references exchange rate intervention – suggesting it is net yet ready to go that route. Meantime, key themes are churning but liquidity is obscuring.


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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Sellers Take Aim Below 0.67 Figure

The Australian Dollar looks poised to revisit its 2019 bottom below 0.67 against its US counterpart after prices broke range support. The long-term view looks still more ominous.


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Yen Strength Amid Market Tumult to Keep BOJ Target Out of Reach

The Yen’s traditional haven role has seen it boosted by trade war and recession fears. However, with domestic inflation decelerating again, it’s gains put the Bank of Japan is in a very tricky spot.


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Crude Oil Prices Stuck in Monthly Range Despite Waning US Inventories

The price of oil may continue to track the monthly range amid the string of failed attempts to test the August-high ($57.99).


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Nasdaq 100 Technical Forecast for the Week Ahead

The Nasdaq 100 has etched a series of higher lows but has been unable to stay afloat above September 2018 highs. With the assistance of an ascending trendline, can the tech-heavy index continue higher?


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GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP Reverse as UK PM Johnson Suspends Parliament

Concerns about a no-deal, “hard Brexit” continue to swirl. The GBP-crosses can’t avoid the maelstrom - or can they?


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Oil Price Targets: Crude Recovery Eyes August Highs– WTI Trade Levels

Oil prices have surged nearly 5% this week with the advance now targeting downtrend resistance. Here are the trade levels that matter on the WTI weekly chart.


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FTSE 100 Price Outlook: Weak Price Action Continues

The FTSE remains a weak spot across global markets, with it trading near recent lows; continued pressure anticipated.


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Turkish Lira Price: Bullish Signals Suggest USD/TRY May Move Higher

Since Mid-August US Dollar has been firming against Turiksh Lira. How USD/TRY may perform in the few coming days?


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Gold Prices Begin Next Leg Higher - Breakout Target Levels for XAU/USD

Gold prices have been lagging their silver counterpart in recent days, but it may be gold’s turn to breakout higher amid another drop in US real yields.


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GBP/USD Drops on Brexit Latest, Crude Oil Prices Surge - US Market Open

The Pound is on the backfoot, while modest gains are seen in the US Dollar. Italian assets breach a milestone. Oil prices surge of declining crude oil inventories.


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World Trade & the Global Economy | Marc Ostwald | Podcast

Economist and market strategist Marc Ostwald discusses the ‘deep visceral fear’ of market psychology in our latest podcast.


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USD/JPY Bounce from Two-Year-Lows - is the Breakdown Near?

USD/JPY continues to show themes of risk aversion and earlier this week bounced from a fresh two-year-low. Sellers don't appear done yet.


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DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook

The German and French benchmarks are trying to find their footing, but big-picture technical posturing won’t improve much even with short-term strength.


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USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Forecast: Price U-Turns Eying a Test of the Weekly Resistance

How USD/CHF and EUR/CHF buyers could take advantage of seller’s signs of weakness?


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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Breakout Not Yet Confirmed

USD/CAD is at an important technical price point and needs to break decisively before the next move can be confirmed.


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How Boris Johnson Can Suspend Parliament by Using the Queen’s Speech

Boris Johnson looks to suspend parliament by up to a month using the Queen’s speech in mid-October. No-deal risks rise as opposition parties are given less time to block such an outcome.


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GBPUSD Price: Selling-Off on Talk of UK Parliament Suspension, Proroguing

The British Pound slipped lower on talk that the UK government is looking to suspend Parliament from mid-September (proroguing), limiting the time that Remainers have to stop a no-deal Brexit.


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Crude Oil Price Analysis: Oil Prices Lifted on Large Stock Decline

Brent crude futures lifted following yesterday’s large draw in API crude inventories, eyes on the DoE report later today.


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Crude Oil Prices May Struggle as Politics, Trade War Unsettle Markets

Crude oil prices rose despite a gloomy disposition across markets, but follow-through seems unlikely as political instability and trade wars unsettle investors.


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Tuesday, 27 August 2019

EURUSD Rate Rebound Unravels as ECB Officials See Scope for Action

EURUSD struggles to retain the rebound from the previous week as European Central Bank (ECB) officials show a greater willingness to further insulate the economy.


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Euro Eyes Italy Manufacturing Data, SEK May Fall on Retail Sales

The Euro and Swedish Krona may fall on poor Italian manufacturing data and Sweden’s retail sales figures, respectively. However, volatility may be curtailed by Thursday’s heavy data docket.


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Stocks Mostly Up Despite Recession Fears, Japan-Korea Rift Deepens

Some resilience was evident in Asia Pacific stock markets on Wednesday, but it probably shouldn’t be overplayed. Currency markets seemed less cheerful.


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S&P 500 Has Strong Range Hold Despite Elevated VIX and Yield Curve Headlines

The headlines were finally clear of trade war updates, but that didn’t mean fundamentals were fully off the menu. Yield curve inversion continues to build recession fear, but market conditions are tempering response – just in time to hold an SPX range.


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Euro May Extend Gains vs NOK and Aim to Re-Test 11-Year High

The Euro may rise vs the Norwegian Krone this week and push EURNOK to retest the 11-year high at 10.0972, a level not reached since the 2008 financial crash.


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Nikkei 225 Price Action at Month-End May be Crucial to Set Trend

The Nikkei 225 has been stuck in a wide band since the heavy falls of late July and early August. Retracement levels of this year’s rise seem to be defining the range now.


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Gold Price Forecast Remains Bullish as RSI Approaches Overbought Zone

The price of gold may continue to exhibit a bullish behavior as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches overbought territory.


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Crude Oil Prices Foil Breakdown - USD/CAD Bearish Reversal Begins

Global growth concerns are easing now that the US-China trade war appears to be shifting gears. Commodity-sensitive currencies like the Canadian Dollar are rebounding.


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Lagging Indicators Defined and Explained

Lagging indicators are a great way to analyse financial markets. Read this article for more information!


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EUR/JPY, USD/JPY Price: How May Perform After Rallying Back to the Zone?

Yesterday, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY tested fresh new lows. Since then the price rallied with the sellers likely taking profits. Here is how both pairs may perform in the next few days.


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GBP/USD: Traders continue to remain net-long since May

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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EUR/USD: Retail data shows that 67% of traders are net-long

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian


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Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR in Control

USDZAR has the most significant 5-day correlation with bitcoin prices among EM FX, but USDCNH remains the most highly correlated over the past six months.


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GBP/USD Outperforms, Silver Prices Soar - US Market Open

The Pound has been among the best performers with GBP/USD approaching the 1.2300 handle. Silver outperforms gold as prices test $18.


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USDCAD Trading Bias Turns Bearish

USDCAD is running lower out of a wedge formation, breaking a multi-week-long bullish structure; more selling looks to be ahead.


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US Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

The US Dollar remains messy on a near-term state, but a recent turn in USD/CAD may open the door for bearish scenarios.


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Market Sentiment Poor But Chinks of Light Remain | Webinar

Measures of trader confidence suggest a “risk off” mood in the markets but there’s been no rush yet from riskier assets into safe havens.


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JPY Bulls Approaching Extreme Levels, EUR/USD Shorts Slashed - COT Report

Weekly changes in G10 FX positioning sees US Dollar longs scale back as JPY longs soar towards extreme levels. EUR/USD shorts slashed, while GBP/USD remains largest bearish bet, risking short squeeze.


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Gold Price Technical Outlook: More Gains on the Cards

The gold price has filled a gap on the daily chart and is now heading higher again, suggesting a continuation of the present uptrend.


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Canadian Dollar Price: USD/CAD Looking for a test of Multi-Weeks Low

Last week USD/CAD closed in the green however, the pair has been giving signs of direction’s reversal. Here are the levels USDCAD traders may need to follow closely.


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Sterling Forecast: Volatility Likely to Soar on Brexit No-Confidence Vote

The British Pound (GBP) is expected to become more volatile, with larger price-swings, as a potential Brexit no-confidence vote nears.


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Gold Price Rally Stoked by Trade War Fears, Silver Price Eyes Fresh Highs

The price of gold is likely to make another multi-year high in the short-term and $1,600/oz+ is possible on a perfect set-up of rising risk and lower rates.


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Gold Prices May Probe Higher But Chart Setup Warns of Topping

Gold prices may probe higher as market sentiment sours anew – driving down yields and boosting the metal’s relative appeal – but technical cues warn a top is taking shape.


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Monday, 26 August 2019

GBPUSD Rate Rebound Stalls as BoE Governor Strikes Cautious Tone

The recent rebound in GBPUSD appears to be stalling as Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney strikes a cautious tone.


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EURUSD May Fall US Consumer Confidence, German GDP Data

The Euro may fall vs the US Dollar if local consumer confidence data falls short of forecasts against the backdrop of the publication of German GDP reports.


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Stocks Rise With Trade Hopes, Japan ’Urgently" Monitors Yen

Stocks were up broadly but to varying degrees as traders took a lack of bad news on US-China trade as good news.


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USDSEK, USDNOK Uptrend to Accelerate as US Dollar Strengthens?

USDSEK and USDNOK are both rising above their previous multi-month uptrends after temporarily deviating. Their ascension may accelerate this week if demand for the US Dollar surges.


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S&P 500’s Questionable Save from Breakdown, USDCNH and Yield Curve Key Again

The Jackson Hole Symposium and G-7 summit’s passed without offering any genuine reason for optimism, yet liquidity may buy speculative bulls more time before the S&P 500 tests its mettle and systemic risks are put to the test.


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Key ASX Prop Survives Test, May Yield If Bears Force Another

The ASX 200 has found support once again at an obvious Fibonacci retracement level but probably needs to make a ‘higher high’ to defend it this week


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AUDUSD Clings to Monthly Range as China Pushes for ’Calm’ Negotiation

AUDUSD may stage a larger rebound over the coming days as China Vice Premier Liu He looks to negotiate with the US “in a calm manner.”


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Nikkei 225 Technical Forecast After the G-7 Summit

The Nikkei 225 could enjoy a boost if President Trump and Prime Minister Abe are able to reach the trade deal both leaders alluded to during the G-7 Summit over the weekend.


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Bitcoin Price Correlations with Emerging Markets FX: USD/CNH, USD/ZAR in Control

USDZAR has the most significant 5-day correlation with bitcoin prices among EM FX, but USDCNH remains the most highly correlated over the past six months.


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USD/JPY: Trade War to Sink Consumer Confidence & US Dollar

The US Dollar remains in focus as currency traders shift attention to Tuesday's US Consumer Confidence report release in the midst of elevated US-China trade war uncertainty.


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Silver Price Targets: XAG Surges to Fresh Yearly Highs– Trade Levels

Silver prices have rallied to fresh yearly highs with the advance now targeting uptrend resistance. These are the levels that matter on the XAG/USD charts this week.


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USD/CAD Price Chart: Could the Canadian Dollar Reverse Trend?

USDCAD has printed a steady ascent since its recent bottom in mid-July, but the prevailing uptrend is showing signs of coming under pressure as spot prices succumb to technical resistance.


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Emerging Markets Crisis Monitor - Seven Factors Traders Should Watch

All currencies are not the same; emerging market FX trades differently than developed market FX.


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US Dollar Rates Proving Volatile After G7, Latest US-China Trade War News

The latest turns in the US-China trade war have provoked a sharp recovery by the US Dollar as US President Donald Trump has indicated he is having “second thoughts.”


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Weekly Trade Levels: US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, SPX, Gold & Silver

Webinar highlighting active trade setups we’re tracking into the start of the week. Here are the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the technical charts.


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Forex Economic Calendar Week Ahead: US GDP, Eurozone Inflation, Canada GDP & More

The final week of August promises several significant economic data releases that are likely to stir even more volatility in FX markets.


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Gold Price Outlook: XAUUSD Spikes, Snaps Back to Fibonacci Support

Gold prices continued their bullish ascent this morning, spiking above the 1555 level after the open. Most of those gains have already been faded-out.


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Weekly Euro Forecast: US-China Trade War Sparks Recovery; Eurozone Inflation Due

“One man’s trash is another man’s treasure.” In a similar vein, the US Dollar’s woes due to the escalating US-China trade war leave the Euro in a place to benefit.


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Crude Oil, Equities Risk Downside Breakout as Gold Prices Rally



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US Dollar, Yen, Gold Prices Eye GDP Data, Trade Wars for Direction

The US Dollar, Japanese Yen and gold prices look to US GDP data as well as the escalating US-China trade war for directional cues.


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Dow Jones, S&P 500, NDX Technical Outlook Turns Precarious Again

The market has been churning with some volatility lately, with price action in favor of more downside momentum for the foreseeable future.


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NOK and SEK May Fall on Rising Trade War Tension, Growth Outlook

The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone may suffer if US-China trade relations continue to batter financial markets amid the publication of critical growth data.


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EURUSD Rate Reverses Ahead of Monthly-Low Following Fed Symposium

EURUSD reverses course following the Fed Economic Symposium, with the failed attempt to test the August-low (1.1027) raising the scope for a larger rebound.


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Japanese Yen Rides Haven Bids Higher As US China Trade War Reignites

The Japanese Yen has made broad gains which put a key long-term US Dollar uptrend against it in very serious doubt. Month-end will be fascinating for this pair


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Sunday, 25 August 2019

US Dollar May Rise if US Data Amplifies Trade War, Recession Fears

The US Dollar may rise vs the Euro if US durable goods orders data shows weakening demand and amplifies trade war-induced risk aversion.


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Crude Oil Prices Sink as US-China Trade War Sours Demand Outlook

Crude oil prices sank with stocks as US-China trade war escalation soured global growth bets, and with them the outlook for demand. More of the same looks likely ahead.


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Stocks Battered Across Board As US-China Trade War Intensifies

Equity indexes took a beating across the Asia Pacific region as the trade dispute between China and the US showed absolutely no sign of letting up.


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US Dollar Outlook Bullish on SGD, PHP, MYR, INR. Trade Wars Heat Up

The US Dollar may keep outperforming SGD, PHP, MYR and INR as a resurgence in US-China trade war tensions undermines the global growth outlook. US and Indian GDP data up next.


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Gold Prices Climb to Fresh 2019 High as US and China Boost Tariffs

Growing tensions between the US and China are likely to keep the price of gold afloat as there appears to be a flight to safety.


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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Three-Year Low Under Pressure

The New Zealand Dollar has extended downward to challenge three-year lows against its US counterpart. A breakdown might pave the way toward the 0.62 figure.


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Yen Surges as US-China Trade Tensions Batter Financial Markets

Early into Monday’s Asia Pacific trading hours, the Japanese Yen surged against its major counterparts as US-China trade war tensions shred market optimism.


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Yen, Australian Dollar May Gap After Trump Raised Tariffs on China

The anti-risk Japanese Yen may gain as the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar weakens amid the resurgence in US-China trade war tensions. Will USD/JPY clear March 2018 lows ahead?


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Crude Oil, Equities Risk Downside Breakout as Gold Prices Rally



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US Dollar, Yen, Gold Prices Eye GDP Data, Trade Wars for Direction

The US Dollar, Japanese Yen and gold prices look to US GDP data as well as the escalating US-China trade war for directional cues.


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Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, CAC 40, DAX 30 Fundamental Forecasts

The Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 will continue to take their cues from trade wars and monetary policy but may face pressure without the constant assurances from dovish commentary.


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US Dollar Technical Outlook as Trump, FOMC Drive the Flow

It was a brutal end to the week for the Greenback as a cocktail of drivers appeared that helped to push the currency from its perch.


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Saturday, 24 August 2019

British Pound Hit By Trade War Crosswinds But Brexit Looms Large

The British Pound has not escaped the influence of the escalating US-China trade war, but Brexit remains the central concern for financial markets.


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Crude Oil Price Chart Outlook: Trade War Selloff Eyes Support

Crude oil prices plunged nearly 2% last week as commodity traders wrestled with bearish headwinds that stemmed from the latest US-China trade war escalation, but could the selloff soon subside?


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Weekly Euro Forecast: US-China Trade War Sparks Recovery; Eurozone Inflation Due

“One man’s trash is another man’s treasure.” In a similar vein, the US Dollar’s woes due to the escalating US-China trade war leave the Euro in a place to benefit.


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Sterling Price Outlook: British Pound Recovery Faces First Test

Sterling has rallied 2% off the yearly lows with price now eyeing the first test of downtrend resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly chart.


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Gold Prices May Rise if US GDP Data Boosts Fed Rate Cut Bets

Gold prices may be given a tailwind if US GDP data underwhelms and bolsters the case for accommodative policy measures, increasing the appeal of holding non-interest-bearing assets.


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Forex Economic Calendar Week Ahead: US GDP, Eurozone Inflation, Canada GDP & More

The final week of August promises several significant economic data releases that are likely to stir even more volatility in FX markets.


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Top 5 Events - FX Week Ahead: June Canada GDP Report & USD/CAD Rate Forecast

The June Canada GDP report is due out on Friday, August 30 at 12:30 GMT, but the data aren’t likely to trigger a significant shift in BOC rate odds.


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Australian Dollar Pressures 2009 Lows on USD, JPY. GBP Breaks Out?

The Australian Dollar continues pressuring lows last seen since 2009 against the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Most progress was made against the British Pound after resistance broke.


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USD/CNH Above 7.0000: Trade Wars are Good, and Easy to Win

Now that China has acknowledged that it is using the USDCNH exchange rate to offset the Trump tariffs, the US Treasury has officially labeled China a currency manipulator.


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US Dollar Vulnerable to Slowing Durable Goods Orders, 2Q GDP Revision

The economic docket for the final week of August may produce headwinds for the Dollar as data prints coming out of the US are anticipated to show a slowing economy.


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Friday, 23 August 2019

S&P 500, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast

S&P 500 gains capped by key resistance, FTSE 100 risks drop towards trendline support.


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Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Slumps as US-China Trade War Erupts

Crude oil is slumping into the close and next week may well see the move extend after China ramped-up their trade war with the US by imposing a fresh round of trade tariffs.


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Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Surges as China Raises the Stakes

Gold prices are once again eyeing a critical resistance zone as China announces retaliatory tariffs. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts.


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S&P 500: Traders continue to remain net-short

Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger US 500-bullish contrarian trading bias.


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Spot Gold: Net-long positions continue to rise as market volatility increases

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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Bitcoin: Traders remain net-long

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Bitcoin-bearish contrarian trading bias.


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Bitcoin Price Weekly Forecast: How BTC/USD Could End its Trendless Move?

Here are the key Bitcoin technical levels where a break may spark a move


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US Dollar Whipsaws Around Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

In saying “we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” Fed Chair Powell has more or less confirmed that markets are correct in anticipating another rate cut in September.


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Crude Oil Prices Exit Triangle to the Downside - Implications for USD/CAD

Now that the crude oil symmetrical triangle is seeing prices break lower, pressure is building for a topside break in USDCAD.


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USD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD & More: Charts for Next Week

There are a few technical developments to watch as we roll towards a new week, USD in focus as an inflection point nears.


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Trade War Latest: China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs on US - US Market Open

China will levy 5-10% on $75bln of US goods from September 1st and December 15th, crude oil plunges, while Japanese Yen heads higher.


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US Dollar Outlook: GBPUSD, USDJPY Price Action on Fed’s Powell

Focus is on Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. GBPUSD shorts are squeezed with liquidity remaining thin, while USDJPY risks tilt to downside on dovish disappointment.


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USD/CAD Price Outlook: Canadian Dollar Eyes Break Out

Since last week USD/CAD uptrend momentum has been showing some exhaustion signals. Here are the levels USDCAD trader may need to keep an eye on.


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Using Price Action As Your First Indicator in Technical Analysis

Price action is the study or analysis of price movement in the market. Learn more on how to apply price action in trading.


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Crude Oil Price Forecast: Watch for Battle at Resistance to Resolve Lower

The rally in crude oil has arrived at an inflection point that is seen as having potential to turn the commodity towards another swing lower.


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GBPUSD Price: Giving Back Gains Ahead of Fed Powell’s Speech

The British Pound put in a strong performance Thursday after commentary from Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron gave fresh hope to the Brexit process. For GBPUSD traders, Jerome Powell now comes into focus.


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Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Fed Chair Powell Cools Rate Cut Bets

Crude oil prices may fall as Fed Chair Jerome Powell pours cold water on interest rate cut speculation in a speech at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole.


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Thursday, 22 August 2019

Euro May Fall vs US Dollar on Powell Comments at Jackson Hole

The Euro may fall vs the US Dollar if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments spark risk aversion and boost demand for liquidity.


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Stocks Mostly Up Before Powell Speech, Japan-Korea Trade War Grows

Stock markets were mostly in the green in Asia Pacific trade with investors clearly hopeful that the world’s central bankers will have goodies for them at Jackson Hole


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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Deeper Drop Seen After Consolidation

The Australian Dollar looks likely to weaken further against its US counterpart after consolidating recent losses in a narrow range near the 2019 low.


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Dow and Dollar May Suppress Jackson Hole, G-7 Volatility for Monday Jump

The Jackson Hole Symposium is already proving a market-worthy event for is heavy fundamental implications, but speculative commitment is still elusive. Will we find that right of way before the weekend or will it all converge on a Monday gap?


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US Dollar Eyes Jackson Hole as Indonesia Joins Rate Cut Spree

The US Dollar may rise if Jerome Powell appears less dovish at the Fed’s policy symposium at Jackson Hole after Indonesia added to the surprise rate-cut spree from central banks.


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EURGBP Drop to Accelerate as Euro Sinks Through Key Support?

EURGBP is testing critical support after the Euro rapidly declined against the British Pound. Will technical confirmation preceded a reversal of the prior uptrend?


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GBPUSD Rate Forecast: RSI Offers Bullish Signal for British Pound

Recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) foreshadowing a larger correction in GBPUSD as the oscillator snaps the bearish trend from earlier this year.


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GBP Gains. Yen Rallies as US Manufacturing Shrinks Most Since 2009

The British Pound rose on the latest Brexit news, but it still has a way to go before clearing resistance. Meanwhile, Wall Street wobbles as US manufacturing contracts for the first time since 2009.


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Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Most Important Oil Chokepoint

With over a third of global seaborne crude oil and a fifth of oil traded worldwide flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, this narrow nautical channel may be the world’s most important chokepoint.


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USD/JPY: US Dollar Price Action Fixated on Jackson Hole & Fed

US Dollar price action and FOMC member commentary is front and center with the kickoff of the Federal Reserve of Kansas City's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium today.


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What is Forex Risk Management? Learn the Basics

Effective risk management is essential to maintaining control in forex trading. Here's how to protect your account from ruin.


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Sterling Price Targets: Pound Reversal Tests Initial GBP/USD Hurdles

Sterling is outperforming the Majors vs US Dollar this week with the Pound recovery now probing initial targets. These are the levels that matter on the GBP/USD charts.


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Negative Yielding Government Bonds – What Are They Telling Us?

There is in excess of USD 16 trillion of negative yielding government debt (bonds) trading in the market at the moment. Every day investors hold these bonds, they lose money.


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Top 10 Trading Myths: Guest Commentary

A successful trader should be able to separate common trading myths from reality. Guest editor, Dr Gary Dayton explores the top 10 myths about trading...


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Gold Prices Maintain Uptrend, Eye Continuation Effort Around Jackson Hole

Gold prices have been trading sideways, in line with our gold price weekly trading forecast. But now that the Fed’s Jackson Hole summit is here, all that could change.


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Brexit Latest: GBP/USD Spikes on Merkel Comments - US Market Open

GBP/USD jumps to sessions highs on latest Merkel commentary. However, challenges remain going forward.


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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

The next two days are full of drivers with a slew of Fed speakers set to offer commentary; the big question is whether price action in USD poses a break.


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Euro Outlook: Italian Political Crisis Monitor - What Happens Next?

Italian President meets party leaders in order to form a new coalition, however, failure to do so could lead to the worst case scenario of an Autumn election.


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FTSE 100 Price Outlook: Sellers Trying to Gain the Upper Hand Again

The FTSE is relatively weak when compared to other major indices and postured for lower prices as an uninspiring bounce plays out.


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Euro Price Outlook: Eurozone PMIs Tick-Up But Growth Remains Weak

The latest set of IHS Markit PMIs picked-up from recent lows but Eurozone GDP is still likely to hit just 0.1% to 0.2% in Q3 while Germany looks to be heading into a technical recession.


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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Sellers Search for Spark

Euro sellers are looking for a spark to reignite momentum as prices struggle to sustain downside follow-through after retesting monthly floor.


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GBPUSD Price Outlook: Sterling Bulls Intrigued by Angela Merkel’s Comments

UK PM Boris Johnson‘s meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel went better-than-expected with Europe’s most powerful figure hinting that a solution to the Irish border backstop may be feasible.


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USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Outlook: Will Sellers Resume Bearish Price Action?

Since the start of this week USD/JPY and GBP/JPY has been trading ineffectively. Here are the levels the pairs need to clear to move in a clear direction


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Wednesday, 21 August 2019

Crude Oil Price Correction Stalls Ahead of Monthly-High

The failed attempt to test the monthly-high ($57.99) raises the risk for a further decline in the price of oil as crude tracks the downward trend from earlier this year.


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Euro May Fall on ECB Minutes, Jackson Hole and Eurozone PMIs

The Euro may fall against the US Dollar if ECB minutes carry ultra-dovish undertones and commentary from Jackson Hole spooks markets against the backdrop of Eurozone PMI data.


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Gold Prices Hint at Topping Before Jackson Hole Symposium

Gold prices may form a top if bearish technical cues find follow-through as all eyes turn to a speech by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium.


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Stocks Mostly Down On Fed Minutes, Japan Data. NZD Pressured Too

Equity investors waited nervously for the Jackson Hole symposium to start. While they did, Japanese manufacturing disappointed once again


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USDTWD May Rise on Jackson Hole, Taiwan Jobs Data

The US Dollar may rise vs TWD if Taiwan jobs data misses estimates and comments from the Jackson Hole symposium stoke recession anxiety.


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Dollar Traders Heads Up: Jackson Hole and Global PMIs Threaten to Detonate Strained Markets

The FOMC minutes served up a jolt to the fragile balance between monetary policy and risk trends this past session, but anticipation for the upcoming PMI run and Jackson Hole Symposium curbed the market response. Will we see the move triggered Thursday?


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Japanese Yen Stays On Defensive As Markets Await Jackson Hole

The Japanese Yen has seen a fightback from more pro-cyclical assets this month.That has paused however, probably as markets await views from the world’s monetary monitors


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USDCAD Rebound Unravels Ahead of Fed Symposium Amid Sticky Canada CPI

USDCAD pullbacks ahead of the Fed Economic Symposium as Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes in stronger-than-expected in July.


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Gold Prices Stabilize Ahead of Jackson Hole, Will XAU Bulls Show Up?

Gold prices have stabilized after a volatile showing last week. Gold price action has clung to a bullish trendline ahead of a couple of really big drivers.


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Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Most Important Oil Chokepoint

With over a third of global seaborne crude oil and a fifth of oil traded worldwide flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, this narrow nautical channel may be the world’s most important chokepoint.


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EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Coil into Symmetrical Triangles Ahead of Eurozone PMIs, Jackson Hole

The Euro hasn’t gotten a lot of attention recently as traders have been distracted by Brexit and the US-China trade war. That could soon change.


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Turkish Lira Price: USD/TRY Uptrend Eyes Another Break Out

Yesterday, USD/TRY rallied off the zone testing four weeks high. Here are the key chart points that could slow down current uptrend or maybe stop it


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Crude Oil Prices Heads Higher, Canada Extends Oil Production Cuts - US Market Open

Brent crude futures are notably firmer this morning following broader risk sentiment and US oil inventory drop, while the South African Rand outperforms on lower inflation.


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US Dollar Price Outlook: USD Primed for FOMC Minutes, Jackson Hole

The US Dollar is flat on the week but a couple of big drivers are ahead on the economic calendar. FOMC Minutes are on the docket for 2 PM ET.


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S&P 500, Crude Oil, Gold Price Technical Outlook & More

The S&P 500 is heading towards the high end of the range near-term, crude oil into resistance, while gold continues to correct in a constructive manner…


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GBP/USD: Traders continue to remain net-long

Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.


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EUR/USD: Traders remain net-long since July despite decrease in price

Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias.


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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Faces Data and Central Bank Risks

The latest look at Canadian inflation data today will help guide USD/CAD traders but with the today’s FOMC minutes and Fed Powell’s speech on Friday, the pair may be in for a rocky ride.


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USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Price: May Correct Higher as Support Holds

Since the end of July Euro and US Dollar has been moving in a downtrend against Swiss Franc. Here are the key tech levels EUR/CHF and USD/CHF need to overcome to correct this downward momentum.


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DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook: Just a Bounce or More?

The German and French benchmarks are finding some life off recent lows, but it’s a questionable rally at this time.


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Negative Yielding Government Bonds – What Are They Telling Us?

There is in excess of USD 16 trillion of negative yielding government debt (bonds) trading in the market at the moment. Every day investors hold these bonds, they lose money.


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Gold Price Analysis: FOMC Minutes Ahead, However, Jackson Hole Takes Precedence

Gold hovering around psychological $1500 ahead of FOMC minutes. However, greater focus should perhaps be placed on Jackson Hole.


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Tuesday, 20 August 2019

EURUSD Weakness to Persist on Less-Dovish Fed Rhetoric

EURUSD may continue to give back the advance from the August-low (1.1027) as a growing number of Federal Reserve officials tame speculation for a rate easing cycle.


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US Dollar May Rise vs Euro if FOMC Minutes Cool Fed Rate Cut Bets

The US Dollar may rise vs the Euro if the FOMC meeting minutes cool rising rate cut bets amid growing downside risks to the global economy.


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Gold Prices Brace for Impact, Eye Bond Yields as FOMC Minutes Loom

Gold prices are bracing for impact as July’s FOMC meeting minutes set the tone for rate cut expectations. The response from bond yields may be trend-defining.


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Stocks Mixed, Gains Narrow. Italian Politics Add To Lengthy Worry List

Local equity markets put in a nervy mid-week performance as investors looked ahead to Jackson Hole and worried a little about Eurozone stability as another election looms for Italy’s top political job


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US Dollar Technical Outlook Versus PHP, SGD, MYR and INR Bearish?

Will the US Dollar see near-term losses against the Philippine Peso, Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit? Technical signals seem to point in that direction as FOMC minutes near.


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Crude Oil Prices, NOK May Fall on Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Data

Crude oil prices and the Norwegian Krone may fall if the world’s largest petroleum-linked sovereign wealth fund’s earnings amplify global recession fears.


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Neither Dollar Nor S&P 500 Fazed by Trump Remarks Recession May be Necessary

President Trump has graduated beyond the saying that ‘trade wars are good and easy to win’. Flirting with an unsteady market, he signaled Tuesday that to inflict pain on China, it may be worth weathering a ‘short’ US recession.


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Stocks in Australia Look To Jackson Hole To Decide Near-Term Path

Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 has held important support but upside progress has not been convincing as global equities wait for direction curs from the Jackson Hole symposium.


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AUDUSD Monthly Range on Radar Ahead of Fed Economic Symposium

The monthly opening range sits on the radar for AUDUSD as attention turns to the Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.


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Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Bulls on a Break– Technical Trade Outlook

Gold continues to ease back from a major resistance target with prices in consolidation just below. These are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week.


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Copper (HG) Price Weekly Forecast: May Rally Above the Weekly Resistance

Last week Copper stuck in a trendless move and since then the metal has been failing at the exact same level. Here is how Copper may perform this week


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Emerging Markets Crisis Monitor - Seven Factors Traders Should Watch

All currencies are not the same; emerging market FX trades differently than developed market FX.


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Emerging Markets Crisis Monitor - Seven Factors Traders Should Watch

All currencies are not the same; emerging market FX trades differently than developed market FX.


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GBP/USD Dips, EUR/USD Eyes Italian Politics, AUD/USD Bounces on RBA - US Market Open

GBP/USD breaks below 1.21 as the EU rebuffs UK PM Johnson’s letter, while EUR/USD braces itself for Italian political risks.


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Oil Price Outlook: WTI Crude Oil Re-Tests Trendline Resistance

Oil prices have spent the past two weeks recovering from a support test at a bit zone. But, with trendline resistance now in play, can sellers take control?


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Dollar and Japanese Yen Charts: USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY & More

The U.S. Dollar may be headed higher in general, but that doesn’t look to be the case against JPY; other JPY pairs posting bearish formations.


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EUR/CHF Outlook: SNB Steps up Currency Intervention

Since EUR/CHF has broken below the 1.1000 handle, the Swiss National Bank has stepped up its currency intervention in order to curb the appreciation in the Swiss Franc


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Gold Price and Silver Outlook Remain Constructive So Far

Thus far since peaking last week precious metals have weakened a bit and may weaken some more near-term, but overall price action suggests it is only a pullback.


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USD/CAD Price: Canadian Dollar against USD – What Next After Correction?

Last Week USD/CAD corrected lower emphasizing buyer’s indecision at this stage. Here are the levels buyers need to consider to reignite paused uptrend momentum.


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US Dollar Price Outlook: Is the USD Rally Becoming Stretched?

The US dollar continues to push higher against a backdrop of upcoming rate cuts and a US President who is looking for even more monetary loosening than the Fed is expected to offer.


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Currency Volatility: Euro Potentially Under-pricing Italian Political Crisis

Italian politics will take center stage for the Euro with Prime Minister Conte set to face a no-confidence after he addresses the Senate from 1400BST.


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GBPUSD Price Outlook Fragile as Boris Johnson Heads to Europe

UK PM Boris Johnson is off to Europe for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel with Sterling traders watching events closely.


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GBPUSD Rate Rebound in Focus as RSI Climbs from Oversold Territory

Recent price action in GBPUSD raises the scope for a larger correction as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounces back from oversold territory.


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Monday, 19 August 2019

Euro Braces for Italian Political Volatility: Snap Election Ahead?

Euro traders may get jittery if Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte’s address to the Italian Senate revives fears of political uncertainty and the prospect of a snap election.


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Crude Oil Prices Eye Chart Barrier as Markets Weigh Fed, ECB Policy

Crude oil prices have run into four-month chart resistance as markets await cues from July’s FOMC and ECB meeting minutes as well as the Jackson Hole symposium.


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Stocks Applaud New China Rate Framework With Modest Gains

Most Asia Pacific stocks were in the green, if only just in some cases, as investors mulled new Chinese lending policies which could open the way to more monetary easing


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Australian Dollar Watchers Must Keep Labor Market Strength In Mind

The Australian Dollar has wilted as markets price in further rate cuts even as the OCR hovers at just 1%. Those cuts may come, but labor market strength may have to wane first.


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USDSEK, USDNOK Reach 17-Year Highs as Recession Fears Rise

USDSEK and USDNOK are both hovering at 17-year highs as US Dollar strength prevails in an environment of recessionary fears and uncertainty.


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Australian Dollar Focus Elsewhere as RBA Minutes Stick to Script

The Australian Dollar market already looks hunkered down for central banking’s heavyweights at Jackson Hole later this week. The latest set of RBA minutes were probably always going to struggle for attention.


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S&P 500 Third Biggest Bullish Gap This Year Doesn’t Resolve Key Themes or Fear

Risk assets opened the week with an impressive gap higher, but it would be more than premature to assign conviction to this bounce. With lingering concerns and backdated event risk, complacency is still best fit.


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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Closing in on 19-Year Trend Break

The New Zealand Dollar is inching closer to breaking a 19-year rising trend against its US counterpart with a drop to the lowest level since early 2016.


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EURUSD Rate Eyes Monthly-Low as Germany Warns of Economic Slump

EURUSD extends the decline from the previous week and approaches the monthly-low (1.1027) as the Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, warns of an economic “slump.”


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Canadian Dollar Price Targets: USD/CAD Bulls Eye Key Resistance Pivot

The US Dollar is targeting resistance near two-month highs vs Loonie with the long-bias vulnerable near-term. These are the levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts.


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75 Years Later, The Lessons of Bretton Woods Have Been Forgotten

The 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods conference was at the end of July, and the concerns that were present in 1944 are reasserting themselves as significant threats to the global economy in 2019.


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Gold & Volatility Drop, Stocks Rise as Trade War Jitters Ebb

US-China trade war whiplash has damaged risk appetite, but market sentiment could be recovering judging by the latest drop in gold prices and volatility measures as the S&P 500 Index climbs.


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US Dollar Rises Ahead of Jackson Hole, US-China Trade Talks

The DXY Index continues to push higher as traders await central bank activity in the second half of the week.


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Weekly Trade Levels: US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold, Silver & SPX

Webinar highlighting active trade setups we’re tracking into the start of the week. Here are the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the technical charts.


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US Markets Analysis: Dollar Index (DXY), Dow Jones (DJI) Price Outlook

Last week the Dow Jones closed in the red, due to the market’s increasing fear of a recession in the US. Here is how the Dow and DXY may perform, with the important levels that need to be followed closely.


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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD

It's going to be a big week for the US Dollar and likely US equities as the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium kicks off on Wednesday.


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Trading the News | James Stanley | Podcast

In this podcast, our currency strategist James Stanley talks trading the news, making contrary picks, and mastering psychology.


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GBPUSD Dips, EURUSD Steady, SNB Intervening in Swiss Franc (CHF) - US Market Open

A relatively muted start to the week for the Euro, which hovers around the 1.1100 handle, while the recovery in the Pound stalls.


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Trading Forecast: EURUSD and Dow Bearings Rest on Jackson Hole, Trump

Scheduled event risk is starting to give way to sentiment and systemic fundamental concerns a prospect that threatens volatility at a time of year when quiet is supposed to prevail. Trade wars are finding guidance from headlines that President Trump regularly tops, while recession fears are tied more closely to market measures. The Jackson Hole Symposium will present an opportunity for officials to discuss all of this.


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Top Market Charts for Next Week: Dollar, Gold, Oil, Dow and More

An unexpected buoyancy in volatility is the common feature across the global markets landscape. More significant market swings have earned a few benchmarks like Gold and Yields remarkable trends, while it has pushed the likes of the Dollar, Dow and Oil to the brink of more substantial breakouts.


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GBP Price Outlook: Driven by Brexit and Fed Chair Powell - Webinar

UK asset markets are in a limbo this week with little hard UK data to look forward to. Later in the week, the FOMC minutes and on Friday, FOMC chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.


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Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Rise at Risk of Failing

The U.S. Dollar has been rising against the Canadian Dollar for several weeks, but price action suggests that the rally could fail…


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EUR/JPY, USD/JPY Price Outlook: Paused Downtrend Move

Last week EUR/JPY and USD/JPY traded ineffectively. Here are the key tech levels traders may need to consider


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CAD Longs Cut, GBP Remains Bearish, JPY Longs Extended - COT Report

Weekly changes in G10 FX positioning sees US Dollar longs scale back as JPY longs soar. GBP sees modest short covering; however, Brexit risks keep the currency bearish.


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Gold Price Rally Primed For a Fed Boost, Silver Price Struggling

Gold traders will be looking ahead to this week’s Fed minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium where the world’s central bankers will be gathered. Will Fed chair Powell offer more clarity on future interest rate cuts?


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Sunday, 18 August 2019

Gold Price Forecast: RSI Sell Signal Takes Shape

The price of gold stands at risk for a larger pullback as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back from overbought territory and flashes a textbook sell signal.


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US Dollar May Rise vs Euro if Eurozone Inflation Data Undershoots

The US Dollar may rise at the expense of the Euro if Eurozone inflation data misses estimates and fuels ECB rate cut bets and expectations of quantitative easing being reintroduced.


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US Yield Bounce Sooths Some Market Fear, Risk Appetite Still on Edge

Asia Pacific stock markets began a busy week in hopeful mood as the US yield curve stopped looking quite so scary. There’s a long way to go yet though.


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Gold, Crude Oil Prices Eyeing FOMC and ECB Minutes, Jackson Hole

Gold and crude oil prices look to minutes from July’s FOMC and ECB meetings as well as the Jackson Hole symposium to gauge scope for stimulus as global growth slows.


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US Dollar ASEAN Forecast: Can Fed Soothe PHP, INR, IDR Selloff?

The US Dollar outlook versus the Philippine Peso, Indian Rupee looks to FOMC minutes and the Fed’s symposium. Emerging markets still face capital fleeing pressures amid trade wars.


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AUDUSD Rate Outlook Hinges on Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes may keep AUDUSD afloat should the central bank endorse a wait-and-see for monetary policy.


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US Dollar May Rise vs Nordic FX From Trade Wars, FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar may extend gains against Nordic FX if risk aversion from US-China trade tensions is exacerbated by the release of FOMC and ECB meeting minutes amid volatile Italian politics.


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Canadian Dollar Price May Reverse Versus USD, Yen at Risk Next?

The Canadian Dollar may be getting ready to reverse against the US Dollar after increasingly bearish USD/CAD technical signals. Ahead, the Yen may weaken as AUD and NZD gain.


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Trading Forecast: EURUSD and Dow Bearings Rest on Jackson Hole, Trump

Scheduled event risk is starting to give way to sentiment and systemic fundamental concerns a prospect that threatens volatility at a time of year when quiet is supposed to prevail. Trade wars are finding guidance from headlines that President Trump regularly tops, while recession fears are tied more closely to market measures. The Jackson Hole Symposium will present an opportunity for officials to discuss all of this.


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Top Market Charts for Next Week: Dollar, Gold, Oil, Dow and More

An unexpected buoyancy in volatility is the common feature across the global markets landscape. More significant market swings have earned a few benchmarks like Gold and Yields remarkable trends, while it has pushed the likes of the Dollar, Dow and Oil to the brink of more substantial breakouts.


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S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

The ominous sign stemming from the inversion of the US 2s10s provides yet another reminder that the global economic outlook is weakening.


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US Dollar Technical Forecast: Bidding for a Breakout?

The US Dollar remains stuck in the washing machine its been in for months, but that could be about ready to change…


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Saturday, 17 August 2019

Sterling Price Weekly Forecast: Brexit Newsflow and Political Manoeuvres

Next week’s UK data vacuum will be filled by the latest political shenanigans with rumor and counter-rumor focusing on who is up to what, with who and why.


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Crude Oil Price Outlook Bearish, Eyeing January Lows on Long Bets

Crude oil prices may extend the dominant downtrend on bearish technical signals, eyeing January lows as IG Client Sentiment offers a stronger downside contrarian trading bias.


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Weekly Gold Price Forecast: Into the Jackson Hole Vortex

Traders shouldn’t be surprised if gold prices spend most of the week trading sideways ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.


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GBP Price Forecast: Sterling Could Rise as Brexit Fears Fade

GBP/USD and EUR/GBP technicals reveal a retracement attempt with the British Pound Sterling staging a recovery from recent downside as no-deal Brexit risk takes the backseat - for now.


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Euro May Fall as ECB Easing Looms, Italy Flirts with Early Elections

The Euro may fall as dovish ECB meeting minutes and soft PMI data set the stage for easing in September while Italy flirts with early elections.


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Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Has AUD/USD Finally Found Support?

There hasn’t been much in the realm of optimism on AUD/USD this year; but sometimes the simple lack of a negative (fresh lows) can start to take on the form a positive.


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Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100, Nasdaq 100 Technical Forecasts

The Dow Jones, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 experienced considerable volatility last week but ended the week on a high note. Can they continue to rebound, or will prior support prove insurmountable?


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US Dollar May Rise if Fed Minutes and Jackson Hole Spook Markets

The US Dollar may rise if the Fed meeting minutes and commentary at the Jackson Hole symposium spooks markets and boost demand for liquidity.


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Friday, 16 August 2019

Euro Breakdown Potential Not as Extreme as EURUSD May Propose

Looking to the world’s most liquid currency cross – EURUSD – we find the FX market on the verge of a technical tidal change with multi-year lows in sight. But what does the Euro itself face ahead?


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Sliding Crude Oil Can’t Look to Jackson Hole For Price Support

Crude oil prices continue to drop as the economic data keep huge question marks glowering over likely demand levels.


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Will Dow and EURUSD Range Or Break as Trade War and Recession Fears Linger?

We are due scheduled fundamental catalysts to the most pressing fundamental themes for the global markets, while speculative fear threatens its own indigestion. Is market-based recession fear and Jackson Hole enough to spur a broad ‘risk’ move?


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The Federal Reserve Bank: A Forex Trader’s Guide

How do Fed monetary policy decisions affect forex trading? Here's all you need to know.


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Sterling Price Outlook: British Pound Snaps Four Week Losing Streak

Sterling is poised to snap a four-week losing streak with price rebounding off downtrend support this week. Here are the levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly chart.


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EURUSD Gains on German Deficit Report, US Consumer Sentiment Sinks

The US Consumer Sentiment Index printed a 7-month low as consumers worry about increased tariffs and trade war uncertainty. Meanwhile, reports out of Germany reveals willingness to run a fiscal deficit to bolster the economy if needed.


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Crude Oil Price Coils in Symmetrical Triangle - How Will it Impact USD/CAD?

USD/CAD prices may breakout to the topside if crude oil prices breakdown further from here.


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Bitcoin Price Outlook: BTC/USD Eyes a Test of the Monthly Support

This week Bitcoin has declined and tested two weeks low. Here are the levels BTC/USD sellers may need to consider to keep leading the price.


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OPEC Signals Bearish Crude Oil Outlook, GBP Corrects Higher - US Market Open

The Pound is once again firmer amid the corrective pullback in EUR/GBP, while OPEC signals bearish outlook for the oil market


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GBPUSD, EURJPY, Gold Price & More: Charts for Next Week

There are a few key technical developments to keep an eye on as we head towards a new week...


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Gold Price Outlook: XAU Pull Back to Fibonacci Support

Gold prices remain overbought on a long-term basis but have pulled back to a key area of short-term support. How aggressive will bulls remain to be?


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Most Volatile Currencies Next Week - Japanese Yen Volatility Highest Since Flash Crash

Fed in focus at Jackson Hole Symposium. Japanese Yen expected to be among the most volatile currencies with implied volatility highest since flash crash.


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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Price - Possible Reversal in the Horizon

At the end of July USD/CAD started an uptrend move. However, the pair may fall back to test last month low and here is how


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ECB and Fed Monetary Shifts Have Outsized Global Influence

There has been the broadest shift in global monetary policy direction in a decade, according to a new report by ratings agency Fitch, and further loosening is expected.


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US Dollar, Euro Technical Outlook: Poised for Larger Breakout

The Dollar is positioned for a big-picture breakout soon, likely higher, which means the Euro will finally make a move too, downside seen as probable…


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Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD Weakness Ahead on Dovish BoC and Trade War Escalation

Bank of Canada potentially the next central bank to join the dovish camp in light of growing downside risks to the Canadian economy.


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GBP/USD Price Action Shrugs Off No-Deal Brexit Threats

GBP/USD remains above 1.2100 and is likely to remain there as the pair are on track to make a bullish streak of five higher lows this, despite increased Brexit rebellion noise.


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Thursday, 15 August 2019

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Down Trend Ready to Resume?

The Euro recoiled from resistance near 1.12 against the US Dollar, erasing most of August’s gains. Has the long-term downtrend resumed in earnest?


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US Dollar May Extend Gains vs Euro if Sentiment Data Sours

The US Dollar may rise against the Euro if University of Michigan sentiment reports sap confidence, driving demand for liquidity and subsequently pushing the Greenback higher.


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Asia Pacific Stocks Mixed As Wary Investors Eye US Bond Yields

Regional trade was short of an overarching theme as the week bowed out, but the Treasury market and next week’s Jackson Hole meeting were much in mind.


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US Dollar May Gain Versus Ringgit Despite Malaysia GDP Surprise

The US Dollar may resume its advance against MYR after Malaysian GDP surprised to the upside. The USD/MYR could rise down the road if trade war fears continue fueling haven demand.


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Gold Price Rise May Extend But Signs of Exhaustion Are Emerging

Gold prices may continue inching upward but technical cues pointing to ebbing momentum are warning of a possible pullback before the broader rise resumes.


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Gold Prices Are the Best Haven to Yield Curve-Based Recession Fears

The inverted US yield curve is only one point of concern in the state of global government bond yields. Recession risks are raising concerns over the state of global growth and financial stability. Where do we find safety moving forward?


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S&P 500 Outlook Steadies Despite Recession Fears, EURUSD Tumble Not a Data Move

Risk assets managed to pullback from the brink of self-reinforcing selling this past session, though the fundamental spark that set the tumble into motion in the first place – recession fears – was still prominently displayed.


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US Dollar and Yen May Rise on Japan, South Korea Trade War

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen may extend gains if the trade war between Japan and South Korea boosts demand for liquidity, though KRW weakness may be stemmed by FX intervention.


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EURGBP Reversal of 14-Week Uptrend May Accelerate in Week Ahead

EURGBP’s consecutive 14-week climb may be coming to an end and could in fact accelerate in the week ahead if Italian politics cause capital flight from the Euro.


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USD/JPY: US Dollar Price Action Eyes Consumer Sentiment Survey

USDJPY forex traders gear up for potentially sizable swings in spot prices with high-impact event risk surrounding Friday's release of August Consumer Sentiment data on deck.


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FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY

The headlines have remained busy and this morning brought another item of importance around the potential for more ECB QE.


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Silver Price Targets: XAG/USD Hits Trend Resistance at Yearly Highs

Silver prices rallied to fresh yearly highs this week with the advance stalling at confluence uptrend resistance. These are the levels that matter on the XAG/USD charts.


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Bitcoin Price Forecast: Trendline Under Fire as BTC Breaks $10,000

Bitcoin prices are down -13% this week as traders look to pressure the coin toward an important trendline. At present, technical support looks to be the sole factor keeping BTC afloat.


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How to Trade the Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick

The Dark Cloud Cover pattern is used to spot reversals and achieve favorable risk to reward ratios. Learn how to trade this pattern.


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Euro Pressured by Dovish ECB Stimulus Comments from Rehn

The Euro is coming under heavy selling pressure following the latest remarks from the ECB's Rehn hinted at the need for an aggressive monetary stimulus package as soon as next month.


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Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Breakout Halted at Trend Resistance

Gold prices ripped into multi-year trend resistance this week - the breakout is vulnerable while below. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.


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USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Price Outlook: Positive Reversal as Support Holds

This week USD/JPY and GBP/JPY U-turned after testing fresh lows. However, the outlook still bearish unless both pairs clear those critical levels.


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Oil Price Technical Analysis: WTI to 55 - Can Sellers Take Control?

Oil prices were back on offer yesterday after a confluent level of resistance came into play. But can sellers continue to push down to big-picture support?


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GBPUSD Outperforming, US Dollar Bounces on Strong Retail Sales - US Market Open

GBPUSD outperforming, however, Brexit risks remain. US Dollar bounces on strong retail sales data, raising likelihood of upgraded GDP trackers.


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FTSE 100 Price Outlook: Test of ’The’ Bull Market T-line May Come Soon

The FTSE's swift decline of recent has brought the index in for a test of the 200-day and a couple other forms of support levels.


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EUR/GBP Price Fading Back Towards Support After Double-Digit Rally

EURGBP is on course to record its first down week in over three months as bulls take a breather and wait for the next entry point.


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S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold, Emerging Market Outlook: What Happens After US Yield Curve Inverts?

The US Treasury 2s10s curve inverts for the first time since 2007. What does this mean for the S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold and Emerging Markets?


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Gold Price Surveys Multi-Year High, Silver Price Bullish Consolidation

Gold remains tilted to the upside and is likely to set a new six-and-a-half high soon as global fundamental woes boost the precious metals allure.


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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Selloff Stalls at 2019 Floor. Now What?

The Australian Dollar is stalling after the most dramatic selloff in six years brought the battered currency to the early-2019 floor against its US cousin. Where to from here?


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Wednesday, 14 August 2019

US Dollar May Rise if US Data Exacerbates Recession Fears

The US Dollar could extend gains against its major counterparts if US data misses estimates and exacerbates fears of an incoming recession.


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US Dollar May Rise vs NOK if Norges Bank Trims Hawkish Outlook

The US Dollar may rise vs the Norwegian Krone if the Norges Bank scales back its hawkish outlook against the backdrop of slower regional and global growth.


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Japanese Yen Bulls Still Appear In Control As USDJPY Wilts Again

The Japanese Yen took a hit against the US Dollar this week as US-China trade news seemed to improve. Dollar gains have already been eroded though


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US Dollar Uptrend on SGD, PHP, MYR, INR at Risk to Fading Momentum?

US Dollar gains versus the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit and Indian Rupee are at risk to fading momentum, negative RSI divergence clouds the technical outlook.


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Crude Oil Prices May Fall as US Data Feeds Growth Slump Fears

Crude oil prices may continue to fall alongside stocks if soggy US retail sales and other data continues to feed fears about a looming slump in economic growth.


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Dow Forecast Links to Recession Fears Bubbling in Bonds and Yield Curve

The US yield curve was this past session’s top theme amongst traders which is troubling given the implications it carries for fears of a recession and association to the biggest drop in the Dow in eight months.


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Australian Dollar Gains Sharply As Job Creation Smashes Forecasts

The Austrailan Dollar spiked upward Thursday as overall new job gains were revealed to have been 41,000 in July, well ahead of the 14,000 markets had expected.


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EURUSD Rebound Unravels as Fed Tames Bets for Rate Easing Cycle

EURUSD may continue to consolidate over the coming days as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tames speculation for a rate easing cycle.


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US Dollar Price Outlook: DXY Threatens Larger Recovery– Trade Targets

A rebound in the US Dollar has price testing a near-term resistance pivot and we’re looking for a reaction here. These are the levels that matter on the DXY charts.


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Jim Rogers on US Economic Crisis, Gold & Bitcoin | Podcast

Could we be facing the biggest recession for decades? Hear the views of investment supremo Jim Rogers on our podcast.


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The Bank of Japan: A Forex Trader’s Guide

How does the Bank of Japan's monetary policy impact the decisions of forex traders? Read on to find out.


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US Recession Watch, August 2019 - Dark Clouds Gather Over US Economy

There is a 32% chance of a recession hitting the United States within the next 12-months – but that’s before factoring in the US-China trade war flaring again.


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Why Does the US Yield Curve Inversion Matter?

More volatlity in global financial markets has traders looking for a culprit. The bond market may be guilty.


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GBP/USD & GBP/JPY Stem the Bleeding on Latest Brexit News

Fears of a no deal, “hard Brexit” have subsided, if only temporarily.


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Turkish Lira Price: Will USD/TRY Rally for a Test of the Monthly High?

Last week USDTRY reversed direction at multi-month low. This week buyers maybe on course to take charge. Here are the tech levels traders may need to consider.


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Crude Oil Price Outlook Weakens, AUDUSD Drops, US Yield Curve Sends Warning Signal - US Market Open

Equity markets have been fading yesterday’s trade tariff delay bounce as weak manufacturing data from China, alongside the US 2s10s curve inverting for the first time since 2007 weighs on risk sentiment


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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: How Far Will the USD/CAD Recovery Go?

USD/CAD put in an aggressive bearish trend in June and early-July, but has seen 50% of that prior move wiped out in a retracement.


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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...