The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may shake up the near-term outlook for GBPUSD if the central bank alter the forward guidance for monetary policy.
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Wednesday, 31 July 2019
GBPUSD Likely to Extend Decline After BoE Amid Rising Brexit Risk
US Dollar strength may continue to pressure GBPUSD as Brexit risks mount and an anxious BoE prepares to announce its rate decision and outlook for the UK.
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Crude Oil and Gold Prices May Fall Further on BOE Rate Decision
Gold prices may fall – making good on technical clues pointing to topping – as the Federal Reserve shies away from endorsing the markets’ ultra-dovish policy outlook.
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USD/MYR Downtrend at Risk as USD/SGD, USD/PHP and USD/INR Follow
The Malaysian Ringgit is at risk to the US Dollar after USD/MYR cleared resistance. The USD/SGD may accelerate its uptrend as the USD/INR and USD/PHP climb towards resistance.
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Brazil Central Bank Slashes Selic Rate 50bp, Signals Future Cuts
The Brazilian central bank surprised investors after it slashed the benchmark Selic rate by 50 basis points and signaled future rate cuts amid growth concerns and pension reforms.
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USDNOK, USDSEK Technical Analysis Post-FOMC Rate Decision
USDNOK and USDSEK spiked after the Fed surprised less dovish and now both pairs are on track to resume their prior uptrends.
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Fed’s Powell Shakes the Dow and Dollar as Markets Confused on Next Steps
Fed rate decision often leave the markets a little shell-shocked on what the future holds, thanks largely to heavy speculation. After the central bank’s cut this past session, the responsibility rests solely with the Fed.
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EURUSD Searches for Support as Fed Tames Bets for Rate Easing Cycle
EURUSD searches for support ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as the Federal Reserve tames speculation for a rate easing cycle.
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Double Bottom Pattern: A Trader’s Guide
Double bottom chart patterns are very popular among traders. Learn how to spot double bottoms and how to use them.
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USD/TRY Price Outlook: Turkish Lira Probs Multi-Months High –What is Next?
On Friday USD/TRY started a fresh downtrend move and today, the pair tests its lowest level in near three months. Here are the levels sellers need to consider to keep pressing the price lower.
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Japanese Yen Price Chart: USD/JPY Breakout Trade Levels for FOMC
An outside-day reversal off resistance leaves the immediate focus on a breakout of the recent price range. Here are the levels that matter on the USD/JPY charts.
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Crude Oil Prices Buoyed by Declining Crude Inventories - US Market Open
Crude oil futures are notably firmer this morning with Brent crude up over 1% following yesterday’s API crude oil inventory data. GBPUSD recovers as markets take profits.
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US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF
The US Dollar has held lower-high resistance ahead of the FOMC's widely-expected rate cut. But what's in store for the rest of 2019?
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Dow Jones, DAX & Gold Price Technical Analysis on Fed Day
Heading into today’s FOMC meeting the Dow is up against resistance, DAX down on support, while gold could make or break a recent price pattern.
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EUR/USD: Traders Remain Net-Long Suggesting Prices May Fall
Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
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GBP/USD: Retail Data shows 76.8% of Traders are Net-Long
Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.
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FTSE 100 Technical Outlook – Monday Rally Coming Under Fire
The FTSE shot out of a bull-flag the other day, with a little more strength will be put to the test at resistance levels created last year.
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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USDCAD Eyes GDP Data and FOMC Decision
The latest look at Canadian GDP data is expected to show growth slowed in May to just 0.1% (m/m) from 0.3% in April.
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USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Price Outlook: Failure at a Key Resistance
Last week EUR/CHF and USD/CHF closed in the green. However, this week the story looks different. Here is how both pairs may perform, and the levels they could test.
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EURUSD Directionless on EZ Mixed Data, Awaits Fed Rate Decision
German inflation managed to pick up but inflation and growth in the Euro area continue to be under strain. EURUSD awaits key US data for direction.
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US Dollar Outlook: GBPUSD, USDJPY FOMC Set-Ups
Focus is on the Federal Reserve rate decision. GBPUSD outlook remains weak with risks of deeper losses, while USDJPY continues to trade within its range.
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Gold Price, Crude Oil Price: Breakouts Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
The technical set-up for both gold and crude oil remains positive with both breaking through resistance. Care needs to be taken however if the Fed disappoints later today.
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Tuesday, 30 July 2019
USDCAD Rate Carves Lower Highs and Lows Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
USDCAD initiates a fresh series of lower highs and lows, with the exchange rate at risk for a further decline as the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a rate cut.
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US Dollar, Stock Markets Brace for FOMC Rate Decision
The US Dollar may gain at the expense of equity markets if the Fed rate decision and accompanying commentary induces risk aversion, overriding downward pressure from a dovish policy change.
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S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 Charts Bearish, Stocks Drop Before the Fed
The Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 appear at risk to bearish technical signals as markets were rattled by US-China trade truce doubts as traders await how dovish the Fed will surprise.
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Gold Prices May Fall as the Fed Falls Short of Dovish Market Hopes
Gold prices may fall – making good on technical clues pointing to topping – as the Federal Reserve shies away from endorsing the markets’ ultra-dovish policy outlook.
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Will Brazil Central Bank Pace FOMC, Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points?
Banco do Brasil and the Fed are expected to cut rates by 25-basis points, though the reasons behind a dovish shift may overwhelm the optimism associated with looser credit conditions.
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Fed Focus Takes Over as Dollar and Global Risk Expect at Least a 25bp Cut
The market’s attention is squarely on the Federal Reserve rate decision Wednesday afternoon. Will this holdout of optimism and policy rebalance cave to the speculative pressure of the market?
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AUD/USD Downtrend Pause on Australia CPI Eyes Fed and Trade Talks
The AUD/USD downtrend might be at risk after Australia CPI beat expectations, but follow through for the Australian Dollar hinges on US-China trade talks and the Fed’s dovish tilt.
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NZDJPY Plunges After New Zealand Confidence Data Spooks Markets
The New Zealand Dollar fell against most of its major counterparts after local confidence data undershot forecasts and spooked markets – NZD is now eyeing FOMC rate decision ahead.
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Lackluster Australia CPI to Keep AUDUSD Rate Under Pressure
Updates to Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may do little to curb the recent decline in AUDUSD as the core rate of inflation is expected to narrow to 1.5% from 1.6%.
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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout Imminent - FOMC, NFP on Tap
Gold prices are coiled just below resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of July trade. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week.
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US Dollar Hits Key Resistance Ahead of July Fed Meeting
As the DXY Index hovers below its yearly highs, it’s evident that traders are waiting for the July Fed meeting before a decision is made around these make-or-break levels.
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US Dollar Hits Key Resistance Ahead of July Fed Meeting
As the DXY Index hovers below its yearly highs, it’s evident that traders are waiting for the July Fed meeting before a decision is made around these make-or-break levels.
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Japanese Yen Outperforms, GBPUSD Continues to Sell-Off - US Market Open
Flight to quality flow has been the notable theme throughout the European session with the safe-haven JPY and CHF benefiting.
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Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Price - Risk of a Possible Reversal
Last week USD/CAD closed in the green however, the upward move did not pick up this week. Here are the key chart points the pair's buyers need to clear to continue pushing higher.
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How to Trade with the Bearish Harami
The Bearish Harami pattern is a popular reversal pattern in the forex market. Learn how to spot and trade the Bearish Harami
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US Dollar Price Outlook Ahead of the Fed: Bulls Drive, Key Resistance
The US Dollar has had a strong month of July after a sell-off that lasted for most of last month. Expectations around the FOMC have been at the core of these moves.
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Dollar Hits Resistance: EURUSD, GBPUSD & Gold Price Charts
The Dollar is trading at resistance, Euro at support, cable below major trend-line, while gold tries to hold its ground near point of a pattern breakout.
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GBPUSD, EURGBP - Sterling Slumps as No-Deal Brexit Fears Intensify
GBPUSD and EURGBP made the headlines Monday hitting levels last seen around two years ago as traders used negative Brexit headlines to hammer Sterling lower.
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FTSE 100 Analysis: Default Safe-Haven on No-Deal Brexit Risk as Sterling (GBP) Collapses
No-deal Brexit risks see investors rotate out of domestic UK assets (GBP) and into more internationally exposed assets, such as the FTSE 100, showing signs of being the default safe-haven trade.
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British Pound Price: Brexit Send GBP/JPY to 32- Months Low – More to Go?
Since yesterday GBP/JPY has incurred near 1.6% loss, as UK governments sources hinted that hard Brexit may be the more likely outcome. Here are the key chart points that may slow down the selloff.
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DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts: Eyeing Support Test on Further Weakness
The German and French stock markets are weakening a bit here, looking towards key areas of support with more selling.
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EURUSD Eyeing 1.1150 Ahead of German and US Inflation Figures
Eurozone confidence worsened in July as continued global uncertainties weigh heavily on investor sentiment. EURUSD volatile ahead of key inflation data to be released later today.
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Crude Oil Prices Cast Hopeful Eye on US-China Trade Talks
Crude oil prices may edge up as hopeful soundbites from renewed US-China trade negotiations getting underway in Shanghai offer a brief boost to risk appetite.
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Currency Volatility: EUR/USD Potentially Under-pricing Risk of Fed and NFP
EURUSD volatility drops after ECB meeting. However, with eyes on the Federal Reserve and US Non-Farm Payrolls, the Euro could be under-pricing key risks.
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Gold Price Outlook: Support Holds, FOMC-Fuelled Breakout Looms
The daily gold price chart shows the recent uptrend support line holding firm while resistance now looks increasingly vulnerable. Will the FOMC break the impasse?
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Monday, 29 July 2019
Euro Eyes Eurozone Confidance Data After ECB’s Chilling Message
The Euro may fall against its major counterparts if Eurozone economic confidence data undershoots forecasts and fuels ECB rate cut bets after last week’s meeting.
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GBPUSD Retail Position Remains Stretched, RSI Dips into Oversold Zone
Current market conditions may produce a further decline in GBPUSD as retail position remains stretched, while the RSI pushes into oversold territory.
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USD/JPY Chart Resistance Still in Focus After BoJ as Yen Eyes Fed
The USD/JPY held under key resistance as the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged. The Yen faces conflicting technical and IG Client Sentiment signals ahead of US-China trade talks and the Fed.
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SEK, NOK Brace for Turbulence Ahead of FOMC and Sweden GDP
The Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone will likely experience unusually high volatility with Swedish GDP, the FOMC rate decision and other high-event risk in the week ahead.
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Fed Anticipation Extend’s Longest Dollar Run in Year, Pound Tumbles on Brexit Warning
There is an unease that is easy to spot in the global markets. Risk trends are hampered by anticipation of the Fed decision on Wednesday, but there is clear expectation for the outcome, which itself may spark a necessary response.
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Gold Price Forecast: Topside Targets on Radar Ahead of FOMC Meeting
The looming shift in US monetary policy may prop up gold prices as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a rate cut on July 31.
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AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Sellers Aim at Three-Year Support
The Australian Dollar looks poised to challenge three-year support above the 0.68 figure against its US counterpart after breaking the bounds of a six-week uptrend.
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EURUSD Looks Lower as Silver & Gold Prices Consolidate Near Highs
EURUSD fell to new lows last week while silver and gold consolidated near their highs. These trends appear incomplete according to Elliott Wave Theory.
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EUR/USD Price Action Eyes Inflation Data Ahead of Fed
Spot EURUSD currency traders shift focus to Tuesday's release of Eurozone and US inflation numbers in addition to US Consumer Confidence.
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US Dollar Price Outlook: DXY Breakout vs Fed Rate-Cut – Trade Levels
The US Dollar is approaching resistance at the yearly highs with major event risk on tap. Here are the levels that matter on the DXY weekly chart into the close of July.
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Weekly Trade Levels: US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold & Silver
Webinar highlighting active trade setups we’re tracking into the close of the month. Here are the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the technical charts.
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Forex Economic Calendar Week Ahead: Fed Meeting, BOE Meeting, US NFP & More
As the calendar turns from July to August, FX markets are bracing for a wave of volatility mid-week.
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Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Defined and Explained
Learn more about the exponential moving average-a derivative of the standard moving average and a great technical indicator
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Gold Price Technical Outlook: XAUUSD Grasps at Support Ahead of FOMC
Gold prices grasp at support ahead of the Fed's widely-expected rate cut. More important for Gold is likely what the Fed says about the rest of 2019.
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Copper Price Forecast: Sellers Eye a Test of Multi-Week Low
Last week Copper closed in the red and lost near 2% of its value. Here are the levels sellers may need to consider to kick start a downtrend
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200 Day Moving Average: What it is and How it Works
The 200 day moving average is widely used by traders to identify long term trends. Learn how to apply it when trading
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GBP Technical Outlook: EUR/GBP to Resistance, GBP/USD Plummets
It's a big week for the British Pound and GBP/USD is wasting no time, dropping to fresh two-year-lows ahead of the FOMC and BoE Super Thursday.
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Weekly Technical Forecast: A Concert Dollar, Dow and Gold Bull Trends Unlikely to Continue
The Dow has led US indices to record highs while other risk-leaning assets continue to lag. Dollar hasn’t broken its two year high, but it is within easy reach while Gold seems to be taking a pause off its own multi-year high awaiting the next wave. All three of these assets are unlikely to hold their correlated path…especially with the Fed rate decision expected to deliver the first rate cut in years.
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US Dollar Eyes 2019 High, GBPUSD Plummets Through 1.2300 - US Market Open
GBPUSD breaks below 1.2300 to hit a fresh 28-month low as no-deal Brexit risks continue to build. US Dollar eyes 2019 peak ahead of Fed decision.
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Weekly Trading Forecast: Dollar and Dow Dialed in to Fed, NFPs and Trade Wars
After a week of dovish ECB, a US GDP beat and unexpected headlines from President Trump; we now move into a second week of heavy scheduled and unscheduled event risk. The FOMC rate decision is an event that will stretch to all corners of the financial system and the focus on the US President�s trade and monetary pressure will only increase.
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Crude Oil Technical Outlook Points to Lower Prices Ahead
Oil isn’t garnering much buying interest after coming off the monthly high, suggests more weakness could soon be in store.
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EUR/JPY, USD/JPY Price Outlook: Important Levels and Zones
Last Week USD/JPY closed in the green indicating to a possible bullish move, on the other hand EUR/JPY traders remained indecisive. Here are the levels and zones that could be crucial for those pairs.
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CAD Bulls Boosted, GBPUSD Bears at Extreme Levels - COT Report
Weekly changes in G10 FX positioning sees CAD net longs highest since February 2018, while speculative GBP shorts are at extreme levels.
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GBP Slumps as CBI Warns Neither UK nor EU are Ready for No-Deal
Industry experts have warned that a no-deal Brexit would be damaging for both UK and EU industries and neither are prepared to counteract the disruption. GBPUSD eyeing 28-month lows.
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GBPUSD Crumbles as The US Dollar Continues its Pre-FOMC Run
GBPUSD now back at lows last seen over 27 months ago driven by a combination of Brexit fears and a rampant US dollar.
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Sunday, 28 July 2019
Gold Price Chart Warns of Trend Reversal Before Fed Rate Decision
Gold prices are struggling to build directional conviction ahead of the Fed rate decision, but technical positioning warns that a top is taking share.
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AUDUSD Carves Lower Highs and Lows After Being Capped by 200-Day SMA
AUDUSD carves a series of lower highs and lows ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with the broader outlook mired by the failed attempt to test the 200-Day SMA.
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US Dollar May Rise Versus ASEAN FX. Fed, US-China Trade Talks Next
The USD looks to the first Fed rate cut since 2008 and US-China trade talks for its next steps versus its ASEAN FX peers. USD/IDR may look past CPI data for more prominent data.
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Post-ECB EURUSD Rate Outlook Hinges on FOMC Forward Guidance
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision may fuel a more meaningful rebound in EURUSD as the central bank is widely expected to alter the path for monetary policy.
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NZDUSD Technical Analysis: Six-Week Uptrend Under Fire
The New Zealand Dollar has retreated from 13-month trend resistance to challenge the bounds of a six-week upswing against its US counterpart.
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USD Uptrend Extends on GDP as GBP Suffers on Latest Brexit Woes
The US Dollar uptrend may extend after resistance was taken out on US GDP, Alphabet and Twitter earnings propelled the S&P 500 higher. GBP/USD is vulnerable to the latest Brexit woes.
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Weekly Technical Forecast: A Concert Dollar, Dow and Gold Bull Trends Unlikely to Continue
The Dow has led US indices to record highs while other risk-leaning assets continue to lag. Dollar hasn’t broken its two year high, but it is within easy reach while Gold seems to be taking a pause off its own multi-year high awaiting the next wave. All three of these assets are unlikely to hold their correlated path…especially with the Fed rate decision expected to deliver the first rate cut in years.
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Weekly Trading Forecast: Dollar and Dow Dialed in to Fed, NFPs and Trade Wars
After a week of dovish ECB, a US GDP beat and unexpected headlines from President Trump; we now move into a second week of heavy scheduled and unscheduled event risk. The FOMC rate decision is an event that will stretch to all corners of the financial system and the focus on the US President�s trade and monetary pressure will only increase.
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US Dollar Technical Forecast: Fresh Highs Ahead FOMC, What’s Next?
The US Dollar rallied throughout the week ahead of the highly-expected rate cut. But – what might the Fed say about the rest of 2019 and how will the USD respond?
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Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Forecast
Earnings season continues next week, but a series of central bank decisions will look to wrestle the market’s focus back to monetary policy.
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Saturday, 27 July 2019
Euro Weekly Forecast: ECB Stimulus Primed and Ready as Outlook Sours
The outlook for the Euro-Zone economy remains gloomy and with fresh central bank stimulus on the way, the path of least resistance for the Euro remains lower.
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Crude Oil Price Chart Outlook Anchored to Technical Confluence
Crude oil price selling pressure has waned over the last week with the commodity aiming to consolidate at technical support before attempting to rebound higher and retest chart resistance.
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British Pound Hits Two-Year Low as Speculative Position Also Hits Extreme
After two weeks of consolidation at multi-year lows, GBPUSD would ultimately earn a bearish break on its short-term wedge. It seems another easy shove to a well-worn trend, but beware the reversal risks.
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Gold Prices May Suffer if FOMC Undermines Dovish Expectations
Gold prices may look increasingly overpriced if the FOMC rate decision and commentary fall short of the market’s comparatively more dovish expectations, opening the door to weakness.
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AUDUSD Weekly Outlook: Aussie Bulls Look for Signs- Price Dips to .69
Aussie is poised to mark the largest weekly decline since April after reversing sharply off key resistance. Here are the levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart.
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US Dollar Seems to be Biased Upward on FOMC Rate Decision
The US Dollar seems more likely to rise than fall after the FOMC monetary policy announcement even as an interest rate cut is overwhelmingly expected.
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S&P 500, Dow Jones Technical Forecast
S&P 500 holds key support, however, bearish divergence leaves index vulnerable. Dow Jones showing signs of exhaustion
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Friday, 26 July 2019
Euro Weekly Technical Outlook: EURUSD Downward Momentum Stalls at Support
The Euro traded into support prior to the ECB on Thursday, following there was some volatility price action that resulted in a Long-legged Doji candlestick.
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Dollar Versus Gold Trends as Trump Warns on Trade War, FOMC Decision Approaches
Growth as a driving fundamental wind – particularly for Dollar bulls – has passed with the weekend liquidity drain. A Fed decision and provocative remarks on Trade wars from Trump will guide our week ahead.
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Gold Price Gains Kept Afloat by Robust ETF Holdings and Demand
Gold price gains have stalled over the last two weeks, but continuous demand for gold exposure in the ETF market could look to assist the trend higher.
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ECB monetary policy | Nicholas Cawley | Podcast
DailyFX analyst Nicholas Cawley discusses the recent ECB meeting – what does it mean for the euro and future policy?
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USDZAR: South Africa Credit Rating Cut by Fitch, Rand Drops
The South African Rand is weakening further after Fitch Ratings cut South Africa's credit rating to junk status with negative outlook.
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Gold Price Targets: Breakout Stalls – XUA/USD Coils Below Resistance
Gold prices are softer this week after reversing off key uptrend resistance. Here are the breakout levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart into the close of July.
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GBP/USD & GBP/JPY Look to Yearly Lows amid Latest Brexit News
Attempts by new UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to reframe the Brexit negotiations appear to be falling on deaf ears in Brussels.
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US Dollar Rally Runs Ahead of FOMC Rate Cut, EUR/USD Bear Trap
Yesterday brought whipsaw in EUR/USD around the ECB rate decision, but it's the FOMC meeting on the calendar for next week that has global markets' attention.
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US Q2 GDP Stronger Than Expected, US Dollar Continues to Rally
The first look at US Q2 GDP beat market expectations with ease and further boosted the US dollar ahead of next week’s highly anticipated FOMC rate decision.
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Canadian Dollar Outlook: Turning Point for USD/CAD Price?
This week USD/CAD buyers had the upper hand, however it might be a bit early to confirm an uptrend move. Here is the key level USD/CAD buyers may need to keep trading above to continue leading the price
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EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, Gold Price & More – Charts for Next Week
Looking ahead to next week, there are a few charts of interest worth paying attention that could lead to solid opportunities.
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S&P 500, Dow Jones, Charts: Struggling at Big-picture Slopes
Both the S&P and Dow are struggling to overcome a major long-term top-side trend-line, a resolution could be nearing in the days ahead.
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US Q2 GDP Preview: Slowest Growth Since 2017
Growth in the second quarter is expected to have slowed to 1.8%, its lowest figure in two years, as continued trade wars weigh on domestic output, providing the Fed signals it needs for rate cuts.
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Most Volatile Currencies Next Week - US Dollar, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
Fed, BoE and Key data in focus. US Dollar, GBPUSD and AUDUSD are expected to be among the most volatile currencies across the G10 space.
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Gold Price Prepares to Breakout as FOMC Rate Decision Nears
Gold continues to bide its time before its next move with price action tempered ahead of next week’s FOMC rate decision when the Fed is fully expected to start cutting interest rates.
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Sterling Outlook: GBPUSD Breaks Down, Boris Johnson Bounce Fades
GBPUSD nears its lowest level of the week, and looks at a technical breakout, as the Boris Johnson mid-week mini-bounce fades in the face of a seemingly unmovable EU.
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Gold Prices May Fall with Stocks, Crude Oil on Soft US GDP Data
Gold prices fell with stocks and crude oil prices as the ECB dithered on imminent stimulus expansion. More of the same may come after soft US GDP data.
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Thursday, 25 July 2019
EURUSD Oscillates After ECB, Gears up for US GDP Data Ahead
EURUSD violently oscillated before settling unchanged after the ECB rate decision and commentary. The pair is now bracing for the release of US GDP data.
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GBPUSD Rate Vulnerable to Dovish BoE Forward Guidance
Fresh updates from the Bank of England (BoE) may produce headwinds for the British Pound if the central bank alters the forward guidance for monetary policy.
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ECB-Inspired Worries About Fed Action Knock APAC Stock Markets
A feeling that the European Central Bank could have offered more on Thursday saw Asia Pacific stock investors fretting that the Fed might underwhelm too.
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GBPUSD May Be the Best Major to Highlight a Weak US GDP
The Dollar has considerable potential for volatility resulting from the 2Q US GDP release. However, a bullish build up on the theme, weekend liquidity, FOMC anticipation and counter-trend winds necessitate strategy.
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USD/SGD Uptrend in Focus, USD/INR Outlook Hinges on 2018 Resistance
The Singapore Dollar may weaken as the USD/SGD uptrend continues, with similar selling pressure perhaps weighing against the Indian Rupee where USD/INR faces 2018 falling resistance.
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EURUSD Round Two Moving Past ECB Onto US GDP
The ECB rate decision proved quite market-moving for EURUSD, but its bearing confounded typical expectations. Will Friday’s US 2Q GDP offer a more direct bearing for the pair?
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EURGBP Retreats After 11-Week Sugar Rush. Crash Ahead?
The Euro has enjoyed an uninterrupted 11-week climb against the British Pound, but the sugar rush appears to be wearing off. Where will the currency pair land?
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AUDUSD Rate Capped by 200-Day SMA Ahead of Australia Inflation Report
AUDUSD stands at risk for a further decline ahead of Australia’s CPI report as the rebound from the June-low (0.6832) stalls ahead of the 200-Day SMA (0.7087).
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USD/MXN Rate Outlook Hints at Higher Spot Prices
Spot USDMXN looks set to resume its bullish ascent as fundamental themes appear likely to tilt back in favor of the US Dollar and combines with an attractive technical backdrop.
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Euro Price Chart: EUR/USD Reverses Course Post-ECB – Trade Levels
Euro prices reversed sharply from fresh yearly lows today with the recovery now testing a key inflection zone. Here are the levels that matter on the EUR/USD charts.
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Silver Price Outlook: May Keep Trading Higher However, with Lower Momentum
Yesterday Silver printed its highest level in over 13 months. Here are the key chart points traders may need to consider.
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75 Years Later, The Lessons of Bretton Woods Have Been Forgotten
The 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods conference was this week, and the concerns that were present in 1944 are reasserting themselves as significant threats to the global economy in 2019.
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EUR/USD Reverses on Draghi, Turkish Lira Rises Despite Record Rate Cut - US Market Open
EUR/USD reverses earlier losses on Draghi press conference, while Turkish Lira firms despite record rate cut from Turkish Central Bank.
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Gold Prices Break, Pull Back on ECB; Will Bulls Drive Ahead of FOMC?
Gold prices put in a quick breakout around this morning's ECB rate decision, but quickly returned back to trend-line support. Can bulls continue to push ahead of FOMC?
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EURUSD Drops as ECB Paves Way for Rate Cut and QE Restart
EURUSD dips as ECB changes forward guidance to allow for a rate cut in September.
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DAX 30 & CAC 40 Technical Outlook Cautiously Constructive
The German and French stock markets continue to act well, with higher prices from recently constructive pullback/consolidation patterns.
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GBP/JPY Price Outlook: British Pound May Keep Losing Mojo - Thanks to BOJO
Yesterday, Boris Johnson was appointed officially the UK PM. Meanwhile, the British Pound continues consolidating blow 135.55 against the Japanese Yen. Here is how GBP/JPY may perform in the few coming days.
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UK PM Boris Johnson Doubles Down on Brexit - Sterling (GBP) Nears Breakout
New UK PM Boris Johnson has filled his new cabinet with like-minded Brexiteers and has already reiterated that the UK will leave the EU on October 31, deal or no-deal.
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EUR Softer Ahead of ECB, IFO Figures Continue to Show Weakness
EURUSD heads towards two-year lows as weakening data from Germany continues to fuel concerns about the growth of the Eurozone. ECB likely to restart QE cementing the case for a rate cut in September.
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EUR/USD Expected to be Most Volatile Currency on ECB Decision, Beware of Surprise
Currency volatility EURUSD soars to a fresh 2019 high as ECB monetary policy meeting is captured, alongside US GDP. Lack of improvement in growth and inflation calls for further ECB stimulus.
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Wednesday, 24 July 2019
EURCHF Rate Trades to Fresh 2019 Low Ahead of ECB Meeting
EURCHF trades to a fresh yearly-low ahead of the ECB meeting, with recent price action warning of a further decline as the bearish momentum appears to be gathering pace.
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EURUSD May Break Through Critical Support After ECB Rate Decision
EURUSD may finally capitulate and break below critical resistance-turned-support channel, exposing the pair to a rapid selloff if ECB commentary spooks Euro traders.
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USD/PHP Downtrend Faces 2013 Support as Peso Gains on BSP Comments
The US Dollar weakened against the Philippine Peso, with USD/PHP falling towards 2013 rising support as Philippine Central Bank board member Bruce Tolentino cooled BSP rate cut bets.
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Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Gloomy ECB, US Data Spook Markets
Crude oil prices may fall if downbeat commentary from the ECB and soft US durable goods orders data stokes global slowdown fears and spooks financial markets.
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EURUSD and EURCHF In the ECB Rate Decision Crosshairs
The ECB rate decision is leveraged with serious fundamental speculation with EURUSD stationed on the ledge of a three-month range that tips into two-year lows. Yet, if the outcome is bullish, take a glance at EURCHF.
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AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Aussie Flirting with Bearish Reversal
The Australian Dollar is flirting with imminent bearish trend reversal as prices test support guiding the upswing from mid-June after recoiling from resistance.
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Dollar Run Slows Despite Growth Skew, Euro Readies for the ECB
Is the US truly recession proof should the global economy continue to slow? What would a clearly dovish ECB earn from an already deflated Euro?
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Australian Dollar Sliides As RBA’s Lowe Says Prepared To Ease Policy Further
The Australian Dollar spiked down as the RBA Governor opened his Parliamentary remarks by saying record low rates could yet be reduced.
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Strong Nikkei 225 Bounce Likely Puts More Dogged Gains On Cards
The Nikkei 225 has had a good run higher and, while bulls can probably hope for more, sharp rises from here could start to look like over-stretch.
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Iran and Brazil Open a New Front in the Global Trade War
Tehran threatened to cut key Brazil imports after a stranded Iranian oil tanker was barred from refueling off the Brazilian coast amid concern of incurring US sanctions.
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Gold Prices to Benefit from Threat of Trade, Currency War
Gold prices may continue to benefit from the current environment amid little signs of an imminent US-China trade deal.
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EUR/USD: Traders Remain Net-Long Since 01 July
Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
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Euro Expected to be Most Volatile So Far This Year on ECB Risk
Short term volatility in EURUSD soars to 2019 high as ECB monetary policy meeting is captured. Lack of improvement in growth and inflation calls for further ECB stimulus.
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Gold Price Target Hit: XAU/USD Rally Vulnerable Near-term
Gold prices pulled back from our first major resistance target with the broader rally at risk near-term. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week.
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Turkish Lira Price Outlook: USD/TRY Struggles to Push Higher
At the start of the week USD rallied against Turkish lira and pushed to a higher trading zone. Here are the levels USD/TRY likely to test in the few coming days
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Top 5 Events - FX Week Ahead: July ECB Meeting & EUR/JPY Rate Forecast
The July European Central Bank rate decision and policy meeting will arrive on Thursday, July 25 at 11:45 GMT.
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Crude Oil Prices Back in Contango, GBP Jumps as EUR/GBP Suffers - US Market Open
A new ECB stimulus package is on the way and today’s weak PMI figures simply supports the case for it. EUR/GBP continues drop, crude oil outlook softens as spread moves in contango.
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Crude Oil Prices Bounce to Resistance - Can Bears Re-Take Control?
Crude oil prices have moved back up to a key zone of technical resistance. Can bears stage a move here, or will buyers continue to claw back prior losses.
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Dow Jones, DAX, Gold Price Technical Analysis & More
Global indices are looking healthy and headed higher, but not without their downside risks; gold is trying to turn higher from support.
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Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USDCAD, CADJPY Levels to Watch
USDCAD, CADJPY key levels to watch. USDCAD eyes key trendline, while CADJPY lacks near-term direction.
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USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Price Forecast: Levels and Thresholds to Monitor
Last week EUR/CHF and USD/CHF closed in the red, however this week the trend looks different. Here is how both pairs may perform, and the levels they could test.
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GBP Price Outlook: Further Falls Possible as Boris Faces Brexit Stalemate
New UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing a near-impossible task: delivering a Brexit deal. That could mean still more losses for GBPUSD, although the potential downside may now be limited.
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AUDUSD Chart – Multi-week Correction May Be Near its End
AUDUSD has been stronger than other USD pairs but is set up to weaken again as the price action smacks of corrective since the June low.
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EURUSD Hit by Weak PMI Data, ECB Needs to Get Aggressive
EURUSD remains under selling pressure after another set of weak Euro-Zone PMIs. The ECB meeting on Thursday now takes on increased importance will they stimulate the economy tomorrow or not?
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EURGBP Technical Outlook Points to Lower Prices
EURGBP has a few technical developments which suggest it is headed for more weakness ahead.
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Gold Price Pressing Resistance, Chart Set-Up Remains Positive
Gold continues to trade within a pennant set-up and nears another break of the upper trendline. A strong US dollar is keeping gold in-check but for how long?
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Waning US Crude Inventories to Keep Oil Prices Afloat
Oil prices may stage a larger rebound as US crude inventories are expected to contract for the sixth consecutive week.
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Tuesday, 23 July 2019
EURUSD May Break Key Support if PMI Data Fuels ECB Rate Cut Bets
EURUSD may break below an 18-month resistance-turned-support channel if Eurozone PMI data fuels ECB rate cut expectations at this week’s meeting, though downside momentum may be curtailed.
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Crude Oil Prices May See Clashing Cues in Eurozone PMI, EIA Data
Crude oil prices might face conflicting cues as Eurozone PMI data warns of slowing global demand while EIA inventory data reveals a hefty drawdown.
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US-China Trade War Thaw Hopes Boost APAC Stocks
Trade and interest rate expectations combined to make life pretty easy for stock bulls on Wednesday. There were some local wobbles, but most indexes gained
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US Dollar Shrugs Rate Cut Bets After IMF Publishes Gloomy Outlook
The US Dollar rose despite an uptick in Fed rate cut bets ahead of the July FOMC meeting after the IMF published a gloomy outlook for global growth.
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Dollar Rallies After IMF’s Growth Upgrade, Pound Steadfast After New PM Announced
The ‘growth’ theme seemed to catch traction earlier than expected this week. With July PMIs and the US 2Q GDP ahead, the IMF decided to downgrade its global growth forecasts; but it was a surprise US upgrade that generated the biggest impact.
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Japanese Yen Faces USDJPY Bulls’ Strenuous Base Building Efforts
The Japanese Yen has had a pretty good run against the US Dollar but the latter ‘s fall seems to have hit a solid barrier
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USDCAD Rate May Rise Further After Monthly Opening Range Break
Current market conditions may fuel a larger rebound in USDCAD as the exchange rate clears the opening range for July.
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Canadian Dollar Price Chart: USD/CAD Breaks Out – Loonie Trade Levels
The Canadian Dollar is on the defensive this week with price now attempting to break the monthly opening-range. Here are the levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts.
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Gold Prices Continue to Exhibit Strength Despite the US Dollar Breakout
Gold prices could care less that the US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is breaking its downtrend from the May high.
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EUR Breaks Support, Boris Johnson Wins Tory Contest, CAD Extends Bearish Turn - US Market Open
As widely expected, Boris Johnson won the leadership contest with a margin of 66%. Euro hits a two month low, while CAD trades on the defensive.
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Copper Price Outlook: Uptrend Pauses After Printing Two-Month High
Last week Copper rallied to its highest level in over two months then stopped with the buyers likely taking profit. Here are the chart key points Copper’s traders may need to consider.
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S&P 500: Number of Traders Net-Long Continues to Decrease
Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger US 500-bullish contrarian trading bias.
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Bitcoin: Number of Traders Net-Short Increases by 20.4% from Last Week
Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Bitcoin price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
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US Dollar Bursts Higher, EUR/USD Fresh Low, USD/CAD Breaks Resistance
The US Dollar is rallying after the NY Fed walked back comments from John Williams last week. How dovish will the Fed be at the bank's highly-expected rate cut?
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Market Sentiment Positive Towards USD, Negative Elsewhere | Webinar
The US Dollar remains the currency of choice for traders as market confidence in other assets ebbs away.
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Dollar Looking for May High: Euro, Pound, Aussie Charts & More
The Dollar is postured bullishly at the moment and could soon break on through the May high; EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD charts in focus.
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Boris Johnson is The New UK PM - What Next for Sterling (GBP)?
Boris Johnson has won the Conservative leadership race and is the new UK Prime Minister. Sterling traders will now be following his every comment and move with heightened interest.
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Boris Johnson to be Next UK Prime Minister: FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250
Boris Johnson to face hurdles from the very beginning. Brexit rhetoric and political uncertainty to determine outperformance between FTSE 100 and FTSE 250.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis: US Dollar Tests two Weeks High against Canadian- What Might Be Next?
Last week USD/CAD has been moving lower however, ineffectively. Here are the key technical levels traders may need to consider at this stage.
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Further Sterling (GBP) Weakness Likely if Johnson Becomes PM
As the new Prime Minister is set to be announced at 11.00 UK time GBP may continue to lose ground if Boris Johnson is confirmed to be the new PM.
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US Dollar (USD) Continues Rallying as Interest Rate Cut Looms
Conventional wisdom suggests that currencies should weaken ahead of any interest rate cuts, especially if there is a chance of a bigger-than-expected cut. The US dollar is ignoring this.
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Gold Price Testing Support, Silver Stalling at Long-term Resistance
Last week, strength subsided late and is continuing on into this week; this has the recent breakout in question for gold while silver may struggle at long-term threshold.
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Monday, 22 July 2019
Gold, Crude Oil Prices May Fall on Downbeat IMF Global Outlook
Gold and crude oil prices may fall as the IMF sounds the alarm on slowing global growth, driving haven demand for the US Dollar.
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USD May Rise on IMF Economic Outlook, GBP Braces for New UK PM
Sterling traders will be eagerly waiting for the announcement of the new UK Prime Minister while the US Dollar may rise after the IMF releases its updated economic outlook.
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Puzzled By AUD Gains As Rates Fall? Blame the Fed and Iron Ore
The Australian Dollar has gained despite big cuts to domestic borrowing costs as investors find other reasons to go long.
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GBPUSD Eyes Monthly Low as New UK Leadership Risks Shift in BoE Policy
GBPUSD appears to be on track to test the monthly-low as the threat of a no-deal Brexit puts pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to alter the path for monetary policy.
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Pound Awaits New PM, Euro the ECB and Dollar a Distant Fed Decision
On the one hand, there is event risk on the horizon that qualifies as possible inducement of ‘severe volatility’: ECB decision, US GDP, ECB, etc. Then there is current reality of the narrowest EURUSD daily range in a year-and-a-half.
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USDSEK, EURSEK Approaching Key Resistance Levels: Breakout Ahead?
EURSEK and USDSEK are both advancing towards critical resistance barriers, though upside momentum may be comprised by high-profile data this week.
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ASX Range Holds Key To Near-Term Direction, Broad Uptrend Safe
The ASX has put in an impressive performance this year and that overall uptrend looks safe enough. However some momentum seems to have been lost in the past month.
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AUDUSD Forecast: Will the 200-Day SMA Continue to Offer Resistance?
The near-term rebound in AUDUSD appears to have stalled ahead of the 200-Day SMA (0.7090) as the exchange rate fails to extend the recent string of higher highs and lows.
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Weekly Trade Levels: US Dollar, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold & Oil
Webinar highlighting active trade setups we’re tracking into the start of the week. Here are the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the technical charts.
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Forex Economic Calendar Week Ahead: Next UK PM, ECB Meeting, US GDP & More
The last full week of July will see the most significant action emanating from Europe.
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Sterling (GBP) Week Ahead - All About Boris and Brexit
Sterling opens the week in negative territory as one senior Conservative MP resigns before Boris Johnson has even been elected as the new leader of the Tory Party.
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Gold Price Pulls Back, XAU Bulls Show at Higher-Low Support
Gold prices exploded last week with a gust of USD-weakness pricing-in, but GLD price action has since pulled back to find support at prior resistance.
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EUR/USD May be in for ECB Shock, GBP/USD Weakness Persists - US Market Open
The Pound is on the backfoot to begin the week, while the Euro braces for another dovish ECB meeting. Elsewhere, Swiss Franc is garnering increased attention with focus on key 1.10 handle.
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Weekly Technical Forecast: Dow Eases Back from Record, Dollar Struggles to Light Fuse, Gold Holds Its Break
There is a clear inconsistency in both activity level and bearing across the standard benchmarks of the speculative markets. With the Dollar suffering a jolt without a trend, Dow and other indices hanging just shy of record highs and gold breaking higher in stages; we are seeing more volatility that is often the precursor of a lasting market wave.
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Weekly Trading Forecasts: EURUSD Top Fundamental Candidate on Fed Speculation, ECB Decision Approaches
We may find the top scheduled event risk next week displaced for market moving potential by an increasingly volatile theme. Key event risk ahead includes Friday’s US 2Q GDP update and the global PMIs for July which would seem to put the focus on growth and recession concerns. Yet, the muddled picture from Fed remarks this past week and an ECB rate decision may find far more volatility in monetary policy.
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Top 5 Events - FX Week Ahead: July ECB Meeting & EUR/JPY Rate Forecast
The July European Central Bank rate decision and policy meeting will arrive on Thursday, July 25 at 11:45 GMT.
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FTSE 100 Outlook – Constructive Price Behavior Suggests Higher Prices
The FTSE has been back-and-filling in a constructive manner, points to another round of strength to come soon.
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Spot Gold: Percentage of Traders Net-Long is at its Highest Since 27 May
Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.
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USD/JPY: Traders Continue to Remain Net-Long
Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/JPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.
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Gulf Tensions Escalate, Natural Gas to Follow Oil Prices
As tensions between the UK and Iran continue to unfold, oil prices are edging higher as the conflict escalates. And natural gas prices increased 2.5% over the weekend.
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CAD Longs Sharply Increase, GBP Remains Bearish, JPY Shorts Build - COT Report
Weekly changes in G10 FX positioning sees CAD net longs sharply increase, while speculators continue to add to GBP shorts.
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EUR/JPY Outlook: Euro May Resume Downtrend Price Action against Japanese Yen
Since the Start of last month EUR/JPY has been trading in a trendless move, however, on Wednesday the pair saw a bearish development. Here are the levels the sellers need to consider to lead the price again
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EURUSD Under Pressure Ahead of PMI Data and ECB Meeting
EURUSD remains just above 1.1200 in early trade with little in the way to drive the price until Wednesday’s PMI data and Thursday’s all-important ECB meeting and press conference.
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Sunday, 21 July 2019
Euro Eyeing Eurozone Confidence Data Ahead of ECB Rate Decision
The Euro will be closely watching the release of Eurozone consumer confidence data ahead of the ECB’s rate decision this week. Is a rate cut warranted?
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EURUSD Rate Fails to Test Monthly Low Ahead of ECB Meeting
EURUSD appears to be stuck in a narrow range ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on July 25 amid the failed attempts to test the monthly-low (1.1193).
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Crude Oil Prices May Resume Selloff Amid Global Slowdown Fears
Crude oil prices may build on last week’s selloff as worries about slowing global growth spook financial markets and hurt assets linked to the global business cycle.
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China Launch of Nasdaq-StyleTech Index Fails To Impress
Asian markets shrugged as China launched a Nasdaq-style tech stock index. A negative lead from Wall Street and Iran’s capture of a UK-flagged tanker kept risk appetite in check.
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USD May Gain Against SGD, MYR Despite US Growth Slowing to 2017 Low
The USD may keep catching haven bids versus the Singapore Dollar or Malaysian Ringgit as US GDP potentially slows to its weakest since 2017 in a fragile global growth environment.
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Topside Targets Back on Radar as Gold Breaks Out of Holding Pattern
Current market conditions may keep gold prices afloat as the precious metal breaks out of a holding pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision on July 31.
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Weekly Euro Forecast: Euro Outlook Turns Volatile as ECB Weighs Rate Cut
The Euro has struggled in recent sessions as the July ECB meeting has come into focus. With markets predicting a coin flip’s chance of a rate cut, EUR-crosses appear destined for volatility.
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Crude Oil Prices, SEK, NOK Brace for IMF Report and US GDP Data
NOK and SEK along with crude oil prices may face selling pressure if the latest IMF global economic forecasts and US GDP data pour cold water on risk appetite across financial markets.
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US Dollar Rose as Risk Aversion Left S&P 500 Bearish Price Signals
The US Dollar appreciated on less-dovish Fed monetary policy bets as Middle East tensions fueled risk aversion, leaving the S&P 500 with numerous bearish reversal warning signs.
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Weekly Trading Forecasts: EURUSD Top Fundamental Candidate on Fed Speculation, ECB Decision Approaches
We may find the top scheduled event risk next week displaced for market moving potential by an increasingly volatile theme. Key event risk ahead includes Friday’s US 2Q GDP update and the global PMIs for July which would seem to put the focus on growth and recession concerns. Yet, the muddled picture from Fed remarks this past week and an ECB rate decision may find far more volatility in monetary policy.
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Dollar Outlook: USD 2018 Uptrend In Focus on Aussie as Yen Gains?
The Dollar uptrend from 2018 still holds, near-term price action could be overshadowed by medium-term bullish signals. As USD/JPY eyes support, AUD/USD may reverse on resistance.
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DAX & FTSE MIB Fundamental Forecast: Eyes on ECB Rate Decision
DAX focus centered around ECB rate decision and heavyweight earnings, while Italian political risks weigh on the FTSE MIB.
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Saturday, 20 July 2019
Crude Oil Prices Get Hit to Key Support – More Room to Fall?
Oil bears got back into the driver’s seat this week after supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Barry turned out to be less-than-feared. Can bears continue to drive?
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GBP/USD & EUR/GBP Price Chart Outlook: Flagging at Confluence
Spot GBPUSD sits at major confluence and multi-year Fib support but could be strong-armed by its overarching downtrend. Meanwhile, spot EURGBP upward momentum appears to be waning.
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Gold Price Weekly Forecast: Fed Drives Next Leg Higher
The price of gold made a fresh six-year high Thursday, fueled by dovish Fed commentary. This stimulus comes on the back of recent, heavy, central bank buying of the precious metal alongside large gold ETF inflows.
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Australian Dollar: Is This a True Bullish Reversal?
AUDUSD triggered one of the most recognizable reversal patterns in the technical scales this past week: an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. But is this a spark that can truly catch fire in otherwise difficult markets?
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US Dollar May Gain if IMF Report, US GDP Data Fuels Haven Demand
The US Dollar may find itself propelled higher if the IMF’s updated assessment of the world economy and an underwhelming US GDP data report stoke demand for liquidity.
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Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast
With US stocks teetering around all-time highs, volatility derived from earnings season could see the major markets fluctuate between key areas. Here are the levels to watch.
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Crude Oil Prices May Fall Further as Global Growth Outlook Dims
Crude oil prices may continue to fall after suffering the largest weekly drawdown in two months as the outlook for global growth – and thereby energy demand – sours.
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Friday, 19 July 2019
Euro Price Chart: EUR/USD Holding Multi-year Trend Support
Euro has been testing multi-year slope support since April and leaves bears vulnerable while above 1.1186. Here are the levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart.
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Expect More Dollar and Dow Volatility on Fed Speculation, Trade Wars, US GDP
A mere anticipation for Friday’s US 2Q GDP release or isolated Euro response to the ECB rate decision ahead is no longer the easy course to expect from markets. Trade wars, recession fears and monetary policy will all wield volatility.
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EURUSD At the Crossroads of Most Critical Volatility Lines
There are a host of fundamental themes converging over the coming week with a high probability of volatility along each line. It just so happens that most of them hold considerable influence for the EURUSD.
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Australian Dollar Gains Should Hold As Markets Still Think Fed Will Cut
The Australian Dollar has shared fully in the broad US Dollar weakness seen as markets become more certain that US rates are going lower.
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Oil Price Climbs as Iran Seizes British Ship in the Strait of Hormuz
Crude Oil futures climbed after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard seized a British oil tanker, which adds more tension in the Strait of Hormuz days after the US shot down an Iranian drone.
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US Dollar Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD
Markets are geared up for softer policy out of both the Fed and the ECB, but will the Federal Reserve meet market demands for softer policy?
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Gold Price Rally Hits Forecast Target - What’s Next for XAU/USD?
Gold prices moved up to another fresh 2019 high today, hitting a key Fibonacci extension in the process. What does this mean for the near-term gold price outlook?
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Euro Price at Risk as Implied Volatility Spikes Ahead of ECB
EUR currency pairs are expected to experience heightened price action next week judging by rising implied volatility measures headed into the upcoming ECB rate review.
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Oil Price Chart: Crude Crushed Down to Support – WTI Trade Levels
Oil prices have sold off for the past five days with crude now approaching the first major support zone. Here are the levels that matter on the WTI technical charts.
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US Recession Watch - What the US Yield Curve is Telling Traders
A key spread in the US Treasury yield curve is now suggesting that there is nearly a 33% chance of a recession hitting the United States within the next 12-months.
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Silver Price Forecast: Uptrend May Continue Towards New Multi-Month High
This week Silver soared and printed its highest level in over nearly 13 months. Here are the levels buyer need to consider to keep pushing the price higher
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EURUSD Drops as Italy Risks Snap Elections, USDCAD Spikes - US Market Open
A recovery in the US Dollar alongside Italian political risks pushes the Euro lower, while CAD drops as retail sales missed expectations.
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US Dollar Goes Haywire on Fed-Speak Mis-Fire: Now What?
Markets got chaotic after an off-hand comment from NY Fed President John Williams. Those comments were walked back as the Fed now enters the blackout period.
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USDCAD, GBPUSD, EURJPY & More – Charts to Watch Next Week
Looking ahead to next week, there aren't a lot of high conviction charts, but a few developments worth monitoring.
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S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 Technical Landscape is Getting Interesting
Stocks are pulling off from resistance following fresh record highs, watch how price action plays out as the market tries to work off overbought with the prospect of a long-term topping pattern in play…
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GBPUSD Outlook: Volatility Begins to Awaken as Brexit Risks are Priced In
GBPUSD expected to be volatile as markets begin to price in Brexit risks ahead of the October deadline.
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Canadian Dollar price outlook: USD/CAD Looks to Accelerate the Downtrend Move
USD/CAD bearish move slowed down significantly this week. Here are the levels the sellers need to clear to continue pressing the price lower.
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NZDUSD Technical Analysis: 2-Year Downtrend Ready to be Broken?
The New Zealand Dollar rises to three-month high, taking aim two-year trend resistance. RSI divergence warns that a breakout may not be in the cards however.
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Johnson vs Hunt: Leadership Rivals Differ on More Than Just Brexit
Find out how Conservative leadership rivals Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt differ regarding Brexit, public spending and taxes.
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Gold Price Soars Through Resistance, Consolidation Needed Ahead of Next Push
Gold broke out of its recent pennant formation to the upside Thursday and may push even higher although a period of consolidation is needed to strengthen the next move.
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Crude Oil Prices May Rise While Gold Falls as Markets Consolidate
Crude oil prices may turn higher while gold pulls back from recent highs as commodity markets digest recent volatility into the end of the trading week.
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Thursday, 18 July 2019
EURUSD May Rise if Sentiment Data Amplifies Fed Rate Cut Bets
EURUSD may continue jumping if University of Michigan sentiment data shows weakness and amplifies what are already-aggressive Fed rate cut expectations
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Gold and APAC Stocks Juiced By Fed’s Williams, Whatever He Meant
Asian stocks gained on hopes for lower US rates, with gold miners and chip makers leading the regional way higher
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Dollar Tumbles as 50bp Fed Cut Baked In But Beware EURUSD, AUDUSD Trades
Trade wars and growth forecasts continued to form an uneven path for the markets, but speculative drive seems to have taken a significant tug in attention. A surge in expected Fed cut forecasts has stirred both Dollar and general risk.
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Will Facebook Libra Cryptocurrency Undermine Financial System?
Facebook’s intention to implement its world-wide Libra cryptocurrency has sparked controversy among regulators and central banks who fear it could undermine global financial stability.
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EURGBP Uptrend May Soon Retreat as Pair Test 9-Month Resistance
EURGBP broke through the 2-month rising support channel but the pair has continued to trade higher and is now testing a critical resistance range.
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Gold Price Rips & USD Dips Sharply as Fed Rate Cut Bets Surge
Increasingly dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials has pushed the market's expectations of a 50-basis point rate cut soaring which is sending gold higher and the dollar lower.
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US Dollar Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD
The US Dollar will likely remain center-stage as the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in over a decade is expected in less than two weeks.
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Gold Price Chart: XAU/USD Approaching Range Highs– Battle Lines Drawn
Gold prices are approaching the upper bounds of a multi-month consolidation pattern. Here are the levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts into the close of the week.
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VIX: Volatility Breakout Threatens Risk Assets
The VIX Index could be breaking out to the upside after topping technical resistance amid resurfacing market uncertainties, which poses a major threat to risk assets like stocks and oil.
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Johnson vs Hunt: Leadership Rivals Differ on More Than Just Brexit
Find out how Conservative leadership rivals Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt differ regarding Brexit, public spending and taxes.
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Sterling Price Chart: British Pound Testing Post-Brexit Support
Sterling is testing a critical support confluence just below the January lows - the battle lines are drawn. Here are the levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly chart.
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USD Outlook & Impending Fed Rate Cuts | Mark Meadows | Podcast
Tune in for discussion on impending Fed cuts, the USD outlook, and the interplay between fundamental and technical analysis.
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EUR/USD Price Outlook: Support Grind at 1212 Ahead of ECB, FOMC
Rate decisions take place out of both Europe and the US in the next two weeks, with each carrying the expectation for dovish policy from the respective Central Bank.
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MPs Vote to Block Attempt of No-Deal Brexit, GBPUSD Recovers - US Market Open
A much needed bid for the Pound has seen the currency outperform across the G10 complex. MPs have back ammendment to prevent the next PM to force a no-deal Brexit through suspending parliament.
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Crude Oil Bounces From July Lows - Can Buyers Take Control?
Crude oil sellers have come back into play this week to push prices down to July support. But a bounce has since developed to push prices back to prior support.
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US Dollar Chart Looks Geared Up for Higher Prices
The USD index price action contraction is set to lead to a move soon; there are factors to watch which help determine direction.
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EURUSD Nearing a Break as Price Coils Tighter Ahead of CB Meetings
EURUSD is currently constrained by a series of lower highs and higher lows ahead of two important central meetings in the next two weeks. A break out is looking increasingly likely.
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Bitcoin (BTC) Sell-Off Doesn’t Change the Long-Term Picture Yet
Bitcoin’s sharp sell-off at the start of the week saw the coin near $9,000 for the first time in a month. However, if current support levels continue to hold, a rebound may be on the cards.
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DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts: Pulling Back or Rolling Over?
The German and French markets have weakened so far this month, with some support not far below to put to test whether this is a healthy correction or the beginning of something more pervasive.
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GBP Regains Strength, Retail Sales Manage to Recover
Retail sales have managed to grow in the month of June amid fears of a slowing industry. The positive reading adds to relief from investors about the likelihood of a softer Brexit.
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Pound Sterling Outlook: GBP/JPY Price Printing New Multi-Month Low
At the Start of this week bearish momentum continued after nearly one month of sideways move. Here are the key levels GBP/JPY sellers may need to consider to lead the price to test its yearly support
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Gold Prices Remain Bullish, Silver Prices Continues to Outperform Gold
Gold prices rose as risk appetite deteriorated, however, resistance prevented breakout. Silver prices on course for best week in 3 years as ETF buying sparks outperformance over gold.
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Gold Prices Stuck in Range Amid Market Slump as USD Holds Up
Gold prices area struggling to break from a choppy range despite market turmoil as the US Dollar remains broadly resilient, capping scope for anti-fiat asset gains.
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Wednesday, 17 July 2019
GBPUSD Downtrend May Be Amplified by BoE Credit Assessment, Brexit
GBPUSD may find its level of suffering extended into a critical support channel if the BoE credit risk assessment amplifies the level of uncertainty against the backdrop of Brexit.
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Nikkei 225 Fall Breaks Range, Puts Focus On Retracement Support
The Nikkei 225 has slipped with other regional markets as trade worries weigh again. Technically things don’t look too bad for the bulls yet, but important support is coming up.
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S&P 500 Retreat May Accelerate on NFLX, IMF Gives Trump Dollar Ammo
US earnings may once again take the tiller for global sentiment, but this time around it is hitting both systemic fears and general risk appetite. Meanwhile, trade war warnings are accompanied by views of an overbought Dollar?
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AUD Gains Despite Headline Jobs Miss, Full-Time Employment Up Sharply
Headline Australian job creation missed forecasts in June but the Australian Dollar gained nonetheless as the detail of the monthly report looked much better.
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Oil Price Weakness to Persist Amid Signs of Slowing Consumption
Oil prices stand at risk of exhibiting a more bearish behavior over the days ahead as fresh updates coming out of the US indicate slowing consumption.
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Canadian Dollar Price Chart: Loonie Drives USD/CAD to Weekly Support
Loonie is up more than 4% against the US Dollar from since May with price now testing a critical pivot zone. Here are the levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly chart.
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Gold Price Breaks Out - Can Gold Bulls Push to Fresh Six-Year-Highs?
Gold prices have broken out and a Fed rate cut looks very likely in two weeks; but can Gold bulls continue to push without the bank signaling more rate cuts?
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Trading the Inverted Hammer Candle
The Inverted Hammer Candle is a useful way for traders to spot reversals in the market. Learn more in this comprehensive guide
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Crude Oil Price Triangle Breakdown Could Give Pause to USD/CAD
The Canadian Dollar has been able to take advantage of the weak US Dollar, strong crude oil price environment over the past six weeks. Will it continue?
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Turkish Lira Price Forecast: USD/TRY Eying a Test of the Weekly Low
Last week USD/TRY corrected higher then started a sideways move. Here are the key chart points traders may need to consider to move in a clear direction
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Aussie Weekly Price Chart: Australian Dollar Testing Key Resistance
Aussie is testing a critical confluence resistance pivot against the Dollar for the fourth consecutive week. Here are the levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart.
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Crude Oil Prices Rebound as Iran Rejects US Claims - US Market Open
Crude oil prices bounce back from yesterday’s aggressive sell-off. GBP briefly dips below 1.24, while revisions higher in Eurozone inflation is unlikely to alter ECB policy outlook.
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US Dollar Price Outlook in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD
The US Dollar has clawed back losses from last week's Powell-fueled sell-off. Expectations are high for dovish policy, but how many cuts might the Fed have in store?
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No Mercy For GBP- Manufacturing Inflation at 33 Month Lows Adds to Brexit Woes
UK consumer inflation picked up in June, but ongoing trade war concerns are weighing on the manufacturing industry as output price growth is at its lowest in 33 years.
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Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USDCAD, CADJPY Levels to Watch
USDCAD, CADJPY key levels to watch. USDCAD upside limited as pair heads lower. CADJPY consolidation continues, focus on potential breakout.
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USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Price Outlook: Euro and US Dollar Rebound against Swiss Franc
EUR/CHF and USD/CHF may start to recover last week losses. Here are the key levels buyers may need to consider to lead the price.
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Gold Price Wedge Suggests Higher Soon, Silver Gunning for Breakout
Gold is consolidating well so far after its macro breakout last month; this week silver is working on breaking out of its own macro pattern.
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No Mercy For GBP, Manufacturing Inflation at 33 Year Lows Adds to Brexit Woes
UK consumer inflation picked up in June, but ongoing trade war concerns are weighing on the manufacturing industry as output price growth is at its lowest in 33 years.
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Crude Oil Price - Sell-Off May Extend if Support Levels Fold
Crude oil took a dive Tuesday after the US-Iran stand-off took a slight turn for the better, while the US-China relationship took a slight turn for the worse.
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AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Double Top Forming Below 0.7050?
The Australian Dollar may be ready to turn lower against its US counterpart in earnest as technical positioning hints that a double top is taking shape below 0.7050.
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Tuesday, 16 July 2019
EURUSD May Extend Decline if Eurozone CPI Misses Estimates
EURUSD may extend Monday’s decline and re-enter a critical resistance-turned support channel if Eurozone CPI data misses estimates and fuels rate cut bets.
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US-China Trade War Sees Bellwether Singapore’s Exports Plunge
There wasn’t a lot of cheer around for Asian stock investors with trade worries back to the fore. Australian shares had the best of it.
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Crude Oil Price Drop Breaks Key Support, Hints at Trend Reversal
Crude oil prices broke support guiding them higher since mid-June, hinting that a bearish trend reversal is in progress. EIA inventories data may add to selling pressure.
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USDCAD Rate Extends Rebound from 2019 Low Ahead of Canada CPI
USDCAD may stage a larger rebound from the 2019-low (1.3018) as the exchange rate carves a fresh series of higher highs and lows.
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Dow Hits Record High on Most Reserved Activity Since December 2017
Where most of the markets and currencies are struggling to carry a clear move one week to the next, the British Pound proves consistently the exception to the rule. Yet, how reliable is this impressive slump?
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Dollar Rallies as Euro and Pound Retreat, Data Versus Systemic Themes
US indices just started to issues technical signals to suggest a more serious turn may catch traction, but a fundamental catalyst is still unsecured. Meanwhile, the FX market was far more active with the Dollar posting a stiff rally.
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Japanese Yen Bulls Fail To Crack USDJPY Range Base Once Again
USDJPY remains stuck in its established trading range having come through another attempt to crack the base. Its bulls need to consolidate their gains though, or they’ll face another test.
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Gold Prices Stuck in Holding Pattern as US and China Hold Trade Talks
Gold prices appear to be stuck in a holding pattern as US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin intends to hold a call with Chinese officials this week.
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Gold Price Outlook: Breakout Trade Levels – XAU/USD Weekly Chart
Gold is virtually flat for the month with price holding within a well-defined consolidate pattern. Here are the breakout levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart.
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US Dollar Rebound Hinges on Reduction in Fed Rate Cut Odds
After the June US retail sales report, Fed funds have backed away from pricing in three rate cuts in 2019. The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is testing resistance in the downtrend dating back to the late-May highs.
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GBP/USD: Traders Remain Net-Long Since May
Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
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Platinum Price Outlook: Buyers Push Towards Two-Month High
Last week Platinum rallied moving the price to the next trading zone nonetheless, buyers need to consider those chart points to dominate.
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US Dollar Pushes Higher, EURUSD and GBPUSD Suffers - US Market Open
Bad to worse for the Pound, which printed a fresh 27-month low. EURUSD eyes support, while USD pushes higher as firmer retail sales underpins.
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Oil Price Outlook: WTI Crude Oil Price Action Builds Bear Flag
Crude oil prices have crossed back-below the 60-handle, and a short-term bear flag formation has built. Are oil markets on the cusp of another bearish run?
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Market Sentiment Neutral Ahead of US Earnings, Rate Decision | Webinar
Traders are largely staying on the sidelines, waiting for economic data, US corporate earnings and the US interest rate decision at the end of the month.
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European Commission President Vote to be Held Today
Ursula von der Leyen will face a critical round of voting on Tuesday evening where she might fail to gain the support needed to become the next President of the European Commission.
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GBPUSD Price Slumps to Fresh 27-Month Low, No Respite in Sight
GBPUSD fell sharply Tuesday, hitting levels last seen in April 2017, despite slightly better-than-expected UK jobs and wages data. And the charts provide no support as yet.
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USD/CAD Price Forecast: US Dollar Fall Against Canadian Slows Down
On Friday USD/CAD downtrend resumed leading the price, however with less momentum. Here are the most significant levels the pair may encounter in the few coming days.
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Euro Technical Analysis Overview: EURUSD, EURGBP Levels to Watch
EURUSD, EURGBP key levels to watch. EURUSD holding support, while EURGBP bulls push towards critical resistance.
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UK Jobs Data Fails to Cheer Up GBP Pairs, Focus on Carney Speech
Sterling (GBP) continued to sell off on Tuesday as UK jobs data provided a mixed sentiment, pushing GBPUSD and EURGBP towards year-lows and highs respectively.
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Gold Price Nears Sharp Breakout, Silver Price Needs a Driver
The price of gold and silver continue to diverge with the spread between the two nearing a 26-year wide as gold continues to outperform. And the gold chart is looking increasingly bullish.
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Monday, 15 July 2019
GBPUSD Rate to Stage Larger Rebound on Upbeat UK Employment Report
Fresh data prints coming out of the UK may fuel a larger rebound in GBPUSD should the developments instill an improved outlook for growth and inflation.
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GBPUSD Rate to Stage Larger Rebound in Upbeat UK Employment Report
Fresh data prints coming out of the UK may fuel a larger rebound in GBPUSD should the developments instill an improved outlook for growth and inflation.
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EURUSD May Fall if German ZEW Survey Spurs Risk Aversion
EURUSD may suffer if German ZEW survey data shows a deteriorated outlook for growth and induces capital flight from European assets into the US Dollar and Treasuries.
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ASX 200 Looks Consolidative But Record Highs Remain Within Reach
The ASX 200 still looks comfortable close to its record peaks. Momentum appears to be waning a little though and the extent of this bears close watching now
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Gold Prices Struggle Despite Dovish Fed, US Retail Sales Data Due
Gold prices are struggling despite dovish guidance from the Fed. This warns they are vulnerable if soft US retail sales data triggers haven-seeking USD demand.
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Dow Hits Record High on Most Reserved Activity Since December 2017
The Dow has posted yet another record high and yet it still manages to offer up no enthusiasm in the anticipation of its higher probability course. Quiet in its climb seems to draw far more concern than assurance.
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EURSEK Approaching 2-Year Rising Support Channel: Will it Break?
EURSEK appears to be gearing up for another round to retest the 2-year rising support channel after the pair flirted with the lower bound in December 2018.
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S&P 500 Record High and Gold Builds Breakout Pressure Under Growth, Trade Wars
The S&P 500 notched yet another record high to start this new trading week, but the volume and progress on the day did little to alleviate doubts. With growth and trade fears rising, my focus on a true break shifts to gold.
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AUD Steady, RBA Minutes Show Labor Market Still Key Policy Metric
The Australian Dollar market didn’t find much to love or hate in the latest RBA policy meeting account. The jobs market remains crucial to further action.
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AUDUSD Rate to Target May High on Less Dovish RBA Minutes
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes may fuel the recent rebound in AUDUSD should the central bank tame speculation for another rate cut in 2019.
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Stock Market Outlook: Earnings Season Begins with a Beat
Earnings from Citigroup (C) on Monday morning marked the start of earnings season and beat expectations. As the week progresses, the market is due for a string of heavy hitters which could stoke volatility.
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Oil Price Outlook: Crude Rally Halted at Resistance– WTI Weekly Chart
Oil prices may be at risk after failing to close above a critical resistance zone last week. Here are the levels that matter on the WTI weekly chart.
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New Zealand Dollar Expected to be Most Volatile Currency Amid NZ CPI Report
Short term volatility in NZDUSD jumps amid key NZ CPI report. Money markets currently pricing in additional rate cuts from the RBNZ.
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Litecoin (LTC) Price Falters Alongside BTC, Slips to 2-Month Low
Litecoin (LTC) slipped over the weekend as cryptocurrencies were caught in the crosshairs of President Trump. Elsewhere, Facebook’s Libra coin faces intense regulatory scrutiny.
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Weekly Trade Levels: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold & Oil
Webinar highlighting active trade setups we’re tracking into the close of the month. Here are the targets & invalidation levels that matter on the technical charts.
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Copper Price Analysis: Uptrend May Be on Course - 6,088 Remains Key
Last week Copper sellers failed in their third attempt to test the yearly support. Here are the key technical levels the price may be looking to test this week
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Gold Price Consolidation Sets Stage for Rally to Fresh 2019 Highs
Despite rebounds in higher beta assets and higher yielding currencies alike, gold prices have maintained their elevation. Stability in the face of adversity bodes well for the future.
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US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, USD/CAD Set Up for USD-Weakness
Markets are geared-up for rate cuts out of the Fed later this month but will the Fed deliver? And if so, how much more softening might be in the monetary backdrop?
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GBPUSD Bearish Momentum Resumes, Silver Prices Break Key Level - US Market Open
GBPUSD underperforms ahead of this week’s key UK economic releases, while silver makes a key topside breach as the precious metal extends higher.
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Weekly Technical Forecast: S&P 500 Closes at Record High, Gold Stalls, Dollar Breakouts Fail
We opened this past week to broad rally – for equities, gold and the US Dollar. Yet, by the Friday close, only one of those assets was still under the bulls’ control. Will indices like the Dow and S&P 500 continue to run deeper into record high territory? Can the Dollar and Gold clear their respective ranges given the level of volatility they both sport?
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Weekly Trading Forecast: Dow Versus Gold Bull Trends Amid Trade War, Recession Fears
Risk appetite has found lift this past week, but the real concentration was behind US equities which benefit specifically from heavy speculation around forecasted Fed hikes. Can stretched hopes of rate cuts and stimulus keep this asset class charging – much less pull other markets in its wake – or will a shift in focus to troubled growth and deepening trade wars pull sentiment down?
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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference
The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...
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The Nikkei 225 has bounced at important long-term support and staged a modest turnaround. However, its down-channel endures and will need to...
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AUD prices remain hesitant ahead of the FOMC announcement later today. US PPI will also contribute to recent economic data. from DailyFX -...