Friday, 30 September 2022

S&P 500: Risk, Market Depth and Volatility Into October as Financial Conditions Strain

We have brought to a close the month of September and in turn the third quarter of the year. Moving into the new week, month and quarter; sentiment will be particularly sensitive with the course of monetary policy tightening meeting a swell in recession risk. If any of sparks from financial stability catch, our course can worsen materially.

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Thursday, 29 September 2022

EURUSD and S&P 500 Face Final Volatility from Top US and Eurozone Inflation Figures

We are heading into the final trading day of the week, month and quarter; and the markets are already experiencing significant volatility against a technically and fundamentally precarious backdrop. Will the top inflation figure from the US and Eurozone spur a last-minute volatility spike?

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Gold Prices Anxiously Await the Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge, Will XAU/USD Fall?

Gold prices anxiously await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which could bolster hawkish 2023 policy expectations. This would likely damage XAU/USD.

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Crude Oil Price Recovery Takes Shape amid Failure to Test January Low

The price of oil may stage a larger recovery over the coming days as crude reverses ahead of the January low ($74.27).

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AUD/USD Eyes Chinese PMI Data as Prices Approach Recently Surrendered Channel

The Australian Dollar is in focus ahead of Chinese PMI data following a downbeat session on Wall Street. A beat on the data may help revive sentiment. The Reserve Bank of India is also in focus to close out the week.

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Gold Price Rebound Eyes Former Support Zone

The former-support zone around the July low ($1681) may act as resistance as the price of gold appears to be tracking the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($1726).

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Mexican Peso Outlook: USD/MXN Muted after Banxico Follows FOMC Hiking Pace

Banxico increases the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points, bringing it to 9.25% and pledging to maintain a hawkish stance until inflation is on track to converge to the target.

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EURUSD Climbs Following Hot German Inflation Print – PCE to Follow Suit?

EURUSD pushes higher again as traders eye Friday’s US PCE report.

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Wednesday, 28 September 2022

S&P 500 Ends Longest Slide Since February 2020 But Reversal Founded on BOE Stimulus Unreliable

The S&P 500 managed to end a six-day slide – its worst since the height of the 2020 pandemic – before the index marked another high profile technical break. Seemingly, all it took was a massive stimulus aimed at stabilizing a financial crisis in the UK. But is that the backdrop for a broader recovery?

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British Pound Bounces as BoE Buying Gilts Stems Havoc for Now. Where to for GBP/USD?

The British Pound is remains under siege despite the Bank of England rolling up their sleeves and buying long-dated bonds to mitigate monetary and fiscal policy disparity.

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USD/CAD Reveres from Fresh Yearly High Ahead of US PCE Report

An uptick in the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index may keep USD/CAD afloat as the Federal Reserve pursues a restrictive policy.

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Crude Oil Rallies with Gold Prices as Markets Entertain a Less Hawkish Fed After BoE QE

Crude oil prices rallied with gold and the S&P 500 after the Bank of England temporarily restarted quantitative easing. Markets eye a less-hawkish Fed. Are traders setting up for disappointment?

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US Dollar Pullback Green Lights APAC Currency Rally Ahead of NZD Economic Data

The New Zealand Dollar took advantage of a broader pullback in the US Dollar, outperforming its major peers, including the Australian Dollar. New Zealand economic data is on tap for today’s session.

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AUD/USD Rebound Pulls RSI Out of Oversold Territory

Developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) raises the scope for a near-term rebound in AUD/USD as the oscillator climbs out of oversold territory.

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S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Surge in a Comeback Rally Amid BoE’s Rescue Plan

Major U.S. equity indices rallied as US Treasury yields and USD tumbled after the Bank of England announced an emergency plan to stabilize the bond market.

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Tuesday, 27 September 2022

Euro Punches Lower as US Dollar Drives Markets on No Intervention and Fed Hawks

The US Dollar is again off and running after a pause on Tuesday as the Fed states the case for higher rates ad the White House leaves markets to themselves. How low will EUR/USD go?

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S&P 500 Has Slipped to a Multi-Year Low, But It Doesn’t Register as a Full ‘Break’

Markets are still firmly seated in a ‘risk aversion’ trajectory, but the progress for that slide has ebbed – perhaps owing to the absence of a dominant fundamental event risk in the foreground. Meanwhile, the pressure from inflation, recession risks and the Dollar’s extreme pressure are unrelenting.

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Gold Price Action Echoes Bearish Behavior as APAC Markets Fall

Gold prices are down modestly as APAC markets sell-off. A lull in XAU volatility is unnervingly similar to price action seen over the last few months, setting gold prices up for a potential leg lower soon.

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Australian Dollar Scuppered as US Dollar Takes the Throne as King of Currency

The Australian Dollar has been belted by a soaring US Dollar and a divergence of policy guidance from the RBA to other central banks. Will a smallish hike send AUD/USD south?The Australian Dollar has been belted by a soaring US Dollar and a divergence of policy guidance from the RBA to other central banks. Will a smallish hike send AUD/USD south?

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USD/JPY Rate Approaches Yearly High Ahead of US PCE Report

Fresh data prints coming out of the US may prop up USD/JPY as the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is expected to show sticky inflation.

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ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Rate Cut Looms, EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Press Conference

The European Central Bank left all three official rates unchanged as expected. Traders are now focusing on the press conference for any clue...